Not a great deal more to add. Hard to tell how far fronts will have pushed across the country, or where the precise century of the anticyclone will be in 10 days, but:

**On 12th Dec, at T240, the UK will be experiencing a mild airflow, as Atlantic troughs struggle to make progress across the UK, du to a blocking high over Europe/the Baltic. The NW is likely to be windier and wetter than the SE, but frosts will be virtually absent from any part of the UK. The SE may be experiencing some unusually mild weather for the second week in December.**

Peachy, for December in the SE, perhaps; then just enough time for a zonal flow to be established for a week, morphing into a freezing Arctic plunge which will lead to the widespread snow showers that aren't going to happen towards the end of this week. *))

PS The last part of the last sentence needs to be taken alongside some of the contents of a gritter.

Not a great deal more to add. Hard to tell how far fronts will have pushed
across the country, or where the precise century of the anticyclone will be
in 10 days, but:

Oh dear I do hope this anticyclone doesn't last for a century, we will all
die of total boredom



Graham

On Monday, December 2, 2013 8:44:54 PM UTC, Col wrote:
Graham wrote:

Not a great deal more to add. Hard to tell how far fronts will have

pushed across the country, or where the precise century of the

anticyclone will be in 10 days, but:



Oh dear I do hope this anticyclone doesn't last for a century, we

will all die of total boredom



Indeed.

I think there is something wrong with Paul's spellchecker

--

Col



Bolton, Lancashire

160m asl

Snow videos:

http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Heh. Predictive text from the iPad. Note to self - cheque poses mare throatily. *))

On Monday, December 2, 2013 8:17:58 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Not a great deal more to add. Hard to tell how far fronts will have pushed across the country, or where the precise century of the anticyclone will be in 10 days, but:



**On 12th Dec, at T240, the UK will be experiencing a mild airflow, as Atlantic troughs struggle to make progress across the UK, du to a blocking high over Europe/the Baltic. The NW is likely to be windier and wetter than the SE, but frosts will be virtually absent from any part of the UK. The SE may be experiencing some unusually mild weather for the second week in December.**



Peachy, for December in the SE, perhaps; then just enough time for a zonal flow to be established for a week, morphing into a freezing Arctic plunge which will lead to the widespread snow showers that aren't going to happen towards the end of this week. *))



PS The last part of the last sentence needs to be taken alongside some of the contents of a gritter.

Nothing that makes me think we are not in for this situation developing and producing mild conditions over the UK in (now) 8 days time. Wonder how long it will last?

Best odds to lay for Christmas snow are 2/11, which is tempting....... I could have really done with that short-lived Arctic northerly for this weekend being potent and producing some snow in London. That would have tempted the less well informed to bet on snow on Christmas Day, shortening the odds for snow and lengthening the odds against. I don't think there is enough time, after the demise of this coming European high and UK mild spell, for a similar situation to repeat, but the weather is a fickle thing at 10 days+.. I live in hope!

Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, December 2, 2013 8:17:58 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Not a great deal more to add. Hard to tell how far fronts will have pushed across the country, or where the precise century of the anticyclone will be in 10 days, but:



**On 12th Dec, at T240, the UK will be experiencing a mild airflow, as Atlantic troughs struggle to make progress across the UK, du to a blocking high over Europe/the Baltic. The NW is likely to be windier and wetter than the SE, but frosts will be virtually absent from any part of the UK. The SE may be experiencing some unusually mild weather for the second week in December.**



Peachy, for December in the SE, perhaps; then just enough time for a zonal flow to be established for a week, morphing into a freezing Arctic plunge which will lead to the widespread snow showers that aren't going to happen towards the end of this week. *))



PS The last part of the last sentence needs to be taken alongside some of the contents of a gritter.

Nothing that makes me think we are not in for this situation developing and producing mild conditions over the UK in (now) 8 days time. Wonder how long it will last?

Best odds to lay for Christmas snow are 2/11, which is tempting....... I could have really done with that short-lived Arctic northerly for this weekend being potent and producing some snow in London. That would have tempted the less well informed to bet on snow on Christmas Day, shortening the odds for snow and lengthening the odds against. I don't think there is enough time, after the demise of this coming European high and UK mild spell, for a similar situation to repeat, but the weather is a fickle thing at 10 days+. I live in hope!
-----------------------------------------------
I bet the Bookies would love you to place a bet at 2/11 !

Purely for the London area the probability for Xmas day is skewed to being mild. I've taken a perhaps foolhardy stab based purely on events since 1961 - less than half the data I used for the winter forecast. I've posted full methodology again for your perusal. Because it is a single day - as opposed to a 90 day season - it is just a bit of fun really

http://wp.me/p2VSmb-iB

On Wednesday, December 4, 2013 10:38:55 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:

On Monday, December 2, 2013 8:17:58 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Not a great deal more to add. Hard to tell how far fronts will have pushed across the country, or where the precise century of the anticyclone will be in 10 days, but:







**On 12th Dec, at T240, the UK will be experiencing a mild airflow, as Atlantic troughs struggle to make progress across the UK, du to a blocking high over Europe/the Baltic. The NW is likely to be windier and wetter than the SE, but frosts will be virtually absent from any part of the UK. The SE may be experiencing some unusually mild weather for the second week in December.**







Peachy, for December in the SE, perhaps; then just enough time for a zonal flow to be established for a week, morphing into a freezing Arctic plunge which will lead to the widespread snow showers that aren't going to happen towards the end of this week. *))







PS The last part of the last sentence needs to be taken alongside some of the contents of a gritter.



Nothing that makes me think we are not in for this situation developing and producing mild conditions over the UK in (now) 8 days time. Wonder how long it will last?



Best odds to lay for Christmas snow are 2/11, which is tempting....... I could have really done with that short-lived Arctic northerly for this weekend being potent and producing some snow in London. That would have tempted the less well informed to bet on snow on Christmas Day, shortening the odds for snow and lengthening the odds against. I don't think there is enough time, after the demise of this coming European high and UK mild spell, for a similar situation to repeat, but the weather is a fickle thing at 10 days+. I live in hope!

-----------------------------------------------

I bet the Bookies would love you to place a bet at 2/11 !

The bookies will win whatever I bet, as others would have bet that snow will fall, at only 4/1. They would have lost. That's the nature of bookmaking and why I never bet unless I have an edge of some kind. If I bet £440, I would win £80, if it didn't snow. That would pay for Christmas dinner, as it has done on several Christmases previous, however it's too far away to have the level of confidence (in it not snowing), that I would need to place a bet. ATM, I have no idea whether it will snow on Christmas Day.

On Wednesday, 4 December 2013 19:40:46 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, December 4, 2013 10:38:55 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:

Dawlish wrote:



On Monday, December 2, 2013 8:17:58 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:



Not a great deal more to add. Hard to tell how far fronts will have pushed across the country, or where the precise century of the anticyclone will be in 10 days, but:















**On 12th Dec, at T240, the UK will be experiencing a mild airflow, as Atlantic troughs struggle to make progress across the UK, du to a blocking high over Europe/the Baltic. The NW is likely to be windier and wetter than the SE, but frosts will be virtually absent from any part of the UK. The SE may be experiencing some unusually mild weather for the second week in December.**















Peachy, for December in the SE, perhaps; then just enough time for a zonal flow to be established for a week, morphing into a freezing Arctic plunge which will lead to the widespread snow showers that aren't going to happen towards the end of this week. *))















PS The last part of the last sentence needs to be taken alongside some of the contents of a gritter.







Nothing that makes me think we are not in for this situation developing and producing mild conditions over the UK in (now) 8 days time. Wonder how long it will last?







Best odds to lay for Christmas snow are 2/11, which is tempting........ I could have really done with that short-lived Arctic northerly for this weekend being potent and producing some snow in London. That would have tempted the less well informed to bet on snow on Christmas Day, shortening the odds for snow and lengthening the odds against. I don't think there is enough time, after the demise of this coming European high and UK mild spell, for a similar situation to repeat, but the weather is a fickle thing at 10 days+. I live in hope!



-----------------------------------------------



I bet the Bookies would love you to place a bet at 2/11 !



The bookies will win whatever I bet, as others would have bet that snow will fall, at only 4/1. They would have lost. That's the nature of bookmaking and why I never bet unless I have an edge of some kind. If I bet £440, I would win £80, if it didn't snow. That would pay for Christmas dinner, as it has done on several Christmases previous, however it's too far away to have the level of confidence (in it not snowing), that I would need to place a bet. ATM, I have no idea whether it will snow on Christmas Day.

Your the kid Paul you really do know how to live life in the bus lane

On Monday, December 2, 2013 8:17:58 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Not a great deal more to add. Hard to tell how far fronts will have pushed across the country, or where the precise century of the anticyclone will be in 10 days, but:



**On 12th Dec, at T240, the UK will be experiencing a mild airflow, as Atlantic troughs struggle to make progress across the UK, du to a blocking high over Europe/the Baltic. The NW is likely to be windier and wetter than the SE, but frosts will be virtually absent from any part of the UK. The SE may be experiencing some unusually mild weather for the second week in December.**



Peachy, for December in the SE, perhaps; then just enough time for a zonal flow to be established for a week, morphing into a freezing Arctic plunge which will lead to the widespread snow showers that aren't going to happen towards the end of this week. *))



PS The last part of the last sentence needs to be taken alongside some of the contents of a gritter.

Not a bad forecast from 10 days ago. The synoptics are as forecast, but it's the very end of the block, which Atlantic air will begin to shunt out of the way tomorrow, with a change to more mobile and wetter conditions coming.. Mildness in the SE, but nothing exceptional, I know. Other areas of the UK are even milder. Frosts all but absent from the UK tonight.

See if my guess about developments, from 2nd Dec, comes true!

On Thursday, 12 December 2013 19:06:38 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, December 2, 2013 8:17:58 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Not a great deal more to add. Hard to tell how far fronts will have pushed across the country, or where the precise century of the anticyclone will be in 10 days, but:







**On 12th Dec, at T240, the UK will be experiencing a mild airflow, as Atlantic troughs struggle to make progress across the UK, du to a blocking high over Europe/the Baltic. The NW is likely to be windier and wetter than the SE, but frosts will be virtually absent from any part of the UK. The SE may be experiencing some unusually mild weather for the second week in December.**







Peachy, for December in the SE, perhaps; then just enough time for a zonal flow to be established for a week, morphing into a freezing Arctic plunge which will lead to the widespread snow showers that aren't going to happen towards the end of this week. *))







PS The last part of the last sentence needs to be taken alongside some of the contents of a gritter.



Not a bad forecast from 10 days ago. The synoptics are as forecast, but it's the very end of the block, which Atlantic air will begin to shunt out of the way tomorrow, with a change to more mobile and wetter conditions coming. Mildness in the SE, but nothing exceptional, I know. Other areas of the UK are even milder. Frosts all but absent from the UK tonight.



See if my guess about developments, from 2nd Dec, comes true!

What do you mean "forecast", You just checked the model websites dozens of times a day and in between that looked at weather charts