Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @ T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.

Although a complete lack of stratwarm...

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

On Saturday, 7 December 2013 21:33:35 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @ T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.



Although a complete lack of stratwarm...



http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf



Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

That's funny I was just watching a Nil Lofgren video 'Keith Don't Go' when I saw your post
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QQtHWBfQaQ

Anyhow so you reckon that high might nudge further west and build North? That a long way off. 18z out soon.

In article ,
"Keith (Southend)G" writes:
Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at
the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @
T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a
lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something
may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and
December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be
watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.

Although a complete lack of stratwarm...

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...tdata/annual/m
erra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra.pdf

I think that stratwarms are much more common later in the winter.
Although I note that the very cold (in the UK) March 2013 occurred in
spite of stratospheric temperatures having been very much on the low
side at the time and for several weeks previously.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Saturday, December 7, 2013 9:54:26 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

"Keith (Southend)G" writes:

Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at

the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @

T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a

lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something

may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and

December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be

watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.



Although a complete lack of stratwarm...



http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...tdata/annual/m

erra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra.pdf



I think that stratwarms are much more common later in the winter.

Although I note that the very cold (in the UK) March 2013 occurred in

spite of stratospheric temperatures having been very much on the low

side at the time and for several weeks previously.

--

John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat

The subjects of the King,

And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:

Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
But the UKMO thought that strat warming in Jan 2013 contributed to the cold Spring 2013.

See

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...ld-spring-2013

Len
Wembury

On Saturday, 7 December 2013 21:51:35 UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Saturday, 7 December 2013 21:33:35 UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @ T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.







Although a complete lack of stratwarm...







http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf







Keith (Southend)



http://www.southendweather.net



"Weather Home & Abroad"



That's funny I was just watching a Nil Lofgren video 'Keith Don't Go' when I saw your post

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QQtHWBfQaQ



Anyhow so you reckon that high might nudge further west and build North? That a long way off. 18z out soon.

I like the video, I must dig out my Gibson SG custom tomorrow ~ oh the good old days...I'm not going anywhere

It's still buckling on 18z, twists and turns to come yet....

Keith (Southend)

On Saturday, December 7, 2013 9:33:35 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @ T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.



Although a complete lack of stratwarm...



http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf



Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

Stop it Keith, or we'll have to banish you to net weather, where you can join the cold seekers at the edges of reality! *))

In article ,
Len Wood writes:
On Saturday, December 7, 2013 9:54:26 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In article ,

"Keith (Southend)G" writes:

Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at

the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @

T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a

lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something

may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and

December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be

watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.



Although a complete lack of stratwarm...



http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...tdata/annual/m

erra/t60_90n_10_2013_merra.pdf



I think that stratwarms are much more common later in the winter.

Although I note that the very cold (in the UK) March 2013 occurred in

spite of stratospheric temperatures having been very much on the low

side at the time and for several weeks previously.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
But the UKMO thought that strat warming in Jan 2013 contributed
to the cold Spring 2013.

See

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research...ld-spring-2013

Interesting. I hadn't expected there to be an influence so long
"downstream".
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Saturday, December 7, 2013 9:33:35 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @ T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks. Although a complete lack of stratwarm... http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad"

You CANNOT get two stratwarms two years running. Check Will Hands winter forecast. If he says it wont happen IT WONT HAPPEN!!!!!!!

On Sunday, 8 December 2013 15:55:00 UTC, Jim Cannon wrote:
On Saturday, December 7, 2013 9:33:35 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:

Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @ T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks. Although a complete lack of stratwarm... http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf Keith (Southend) http://www.southendweather.net "Weather Home & Abroad"



You CANNOT get two stratwarms two years running. Check Will Hands winter forecast. If he says it wont happen IT WONT HAPPEN!!!!!!!

The issue is how many of the NH memorable winters have been associated with SSW.

On Saturday, December 7, 2013 9:33:35 PM UTC, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Just starting to get hints of retrogression and a northerly plunge at the end of thn run T+384 on the 12z run. The ensemble charts @ T+384 show quite a number with a similar theme. With such a lack of any sort of cold plunge this autumn, I often think something may hit after the solstice. No real cold in November this year and December is following suit. Nothing scientific here, but I will be watching this one seesaw over the coming weeks.



Although a complete lack of stratwarm...



http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s...2013_merra.pdf



Keith (Southend)

http://www.southendweather.net

"Weather Home & Abroad"

Not there now, Keith. Daily Express front page headline today: "Storms for Christmas". Guess who has "forecast" that?