On Sunday, 22 December 2013 11:18:58 UTC, Ken Cook wrote:

With no really cold weather on the horizon, this is set to be the second mildest December, after 1988, since I began recording in these parts in 1970.

On Sunday, December 22, 2013 11:18:58 AM UTC, Ken Cook wrote: Hi, All, With no really cold weather on the horizon, this is set to be the second mildest December, after 1988, since I began recording in these parts in 1970. Mean screen so far is 5.3C which is 2.4C above normal. Since I began recording at my current Copley site in 1995 the mildest December up to this year was 4.2C in 2006. (I estimate 1988 in Copley would have been 5.5C using my record at nearby Low Etherley.) Mild Decembers are invariably followed by mild winters on my record. It certainly makes a pleasant change from all the snow-shovelling and difficult travel conditions of recent winters. Don't like the winds though, mean speed so far for this month is 13.2KT Best wishes, Ken Copley, Teesdale

On Sunday, December 22, 2013 11:18:58 AM UTC, Ken Cook wrote:
Hi, All, With no really cold weather on the horizon, this is set to be the second mildest December, after 1988, since I began recording in these parts in 1970. Mean screen so far is 5.3C which is 2.4C above normal. Since I began recording at my current Copley site in 1995 the mildest December up to this year was 4.2C in 2006. (I estimate 1988 in Copley would have been 5.5C using my record at nearby Low Etherley.) Mild Decembers are invariably followed by mild winters on my record. It certainly makes a pleasant change from all the snow-shovelling and difficult travel conditions of recent winters. Don't like the winds though, mean speed so far for this month is 13.2KT Best wishes, Ken Copley, Teesdale

Looking at the Netweather forecast out to the end of the month December will be the mildest here since 2011. Looking back in the archives the month would be 31st warmest since 1881.
Despite my winter forecast the prognosis (if you like snow) is not good.

The 'winter of best fit' following a December such as this one (using +/-10% on temperature and rainfall) is 1910 and 1919. Apart from January 1910 which was slightly colder, both years had mild winters.

Other years which were close to this (projected) December mean, looking at my winter index, had very poor snowfall
2000 had 5 days snow lying, 2001 had 1 day. 1992 and 1999 were snowless.

It goes against my winter forecast, though some notably mild Decembers (1986) do suddenly turn cold in January. I think the simple fact is nobody knows for certain.

But its still good fun watching it unfold, even more so since I've got hold of historic data going back to the 1880s

Dawlish wrote:

My neighbour rang me on Thursday to say the gene had blown down in
gales on Tuesday night.
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Hope it wasn't he argumentive gene ;-)

On Monday, December 23, 2013 12:49:51 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:



My neighbour rang me on Thursday to say the gene had blown down in

gales on Tuesday night.

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Hope it wasn't he argumentive gene ;-)

It certainly wasn't "selfish gene". The mac spellcheck strikes again at a fat finger. Read "fence" for "gene". *))

I've just been out a nailed two of the half-attached pieces back up in a force 7/8. There'll be some real problems out there with the amount of people out and gusts strong enough to blow down trees. I really fear for traffic on the Devon Roads. A day not to be unlucky and a day not to travel down here, if you don't need to. I've postponed my gym visit until tomorrow, as it is hunker down territory. Sadly, I fear the need for christmas shopping/bargains will prove too much for some.

On Sunday, 22 December 2013 12:13:01 UTC, Graham wrote:
With no really cold weather on the horizon, this is set to be the second

mildest December, after 1988, since I began recording in these parts in

1970.

Mean screen so far is 5.3C which is 2.4C above normal. Since I began

recording at my current Copley site in 1995 the mildest December up to this

year was 4.2C in 2006. (I estimate 1988 in Copley would have been 5.5C

using my record at nearby Low Etherley.)

Mild Decembers are invariably followed by mild winters on my record. It

certainly makes a pleasant change from all the snow-shovelling and

difficult travel conditions of recent winters.

Don't like the winds though, mean speed so far for this month is 13.2KT



Same here Ken.

I did say last week how mild this December was and here too it's normally

followed by a mild Winter

Mean here stands at 5.7c so far with just 1 air frost, only the very mild

December's of 1988 (6.3c) and 1974 (6.6c) have been warmer.

Both 1975 and 1989 Winters were very mild, only the Winter of 2007 was

warmer.





Graham (North Staffs)

I'm not so sure a mild winter, gfs, although not a raging easterly, certainly has been consistently hinting at a cooler Arctic maritime set up in the runs into the new year. Pressure high over Greenland and building to the north of Scaninavia and Russia, it's only got to take these lows to dive into the continent and here we go. But I maybe just rainbow chasing, although I have my doubts of a complete mild winter.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"
twitter: @LawnscienceEssx

The 'winter of best fit' following a December such as this one (using
+/-10% on temperature and rainfall) is 1910 and 1919. Apart from January
1910 which was slightly colder, both years had mild winters.

Did say a few weeks ago it reminds me of the 1988/89 Winter in which January
was completely snowless with high pressure to the South west, looks like
happening again

Warmest December since 2006 here with a mean of 5.2c, but quite dry despite
all the storms with just 65% of the normal rainfall.


Graham (North Staffs)

In article ,
Graham writes:
Did say a few weeks ago it reminds me of the 1988/89 Winter in
which January was completely snowless with high pressure to the
South west, looks like happening again

Just a few hours later, with the latest model runs that's looking a lot
less certain. Snow is possible in the south of England as little as a
week away (on the 15th) based on the GFS 0Z operational run, though
admittedly at that point the temperature might still be a bit too high.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Tuesday, January 7, 2014 10:35:32 PM UTC, Graham wrote:
The 'winter of best fit' following a December such as this one (using

+/-10% on temperature and rainfall) is 1910 and 1919. Apart from January

1910 which was slightly colder, both years had mild winters.



Did say a few weeks ago it reminds me of the 1988/89 Winter in which January

was completely snowless with high pressure to the South west, looks like

happening again



Warmest December since 2006 here with a mean of 5.2c, but quite dry despite

all the storms with just 65% of the normal rainfall.





Graham (North Staffs)

While it has been similar to that very mild winter here it has been a different story in the Alps. Some resorts around the south side of the range have seen over 2.5m of snow since Christmas Day above around 1,000m. In 1988/89 the Euro high was virtually impregnable with little snow across the range for at least 6 weeks. It wasn't until March that snow began to fall in any quantity. I think it hastened the development of artificial snowmaking