Enough consistency and agreement for me to forecast:

**At T+240 on 1st Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow on Northern hills may well occur in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach; it will be the start of February. The high pressure over Scandinavia, which will threaten to affect our weather over the next 8 days will retreat eastwards, allowing the Atlantic air to dominate.**

I don't see the possibilities suggested by the models, over the last few days, achieving outcome and instead, I'm confident that the wet weather will dominate at the start of Feb.

On 22/01/2014 21:01, Dawlish wrote:
Enough consistency and agreement for me to forecast:

**At T+240 on 1st Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow on Northern hills may well occur in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach; it will be the start of February. The high pressure over Scandinavia, which will threaten to affect our weather over the next 8 days will retreat eastwards, allowing the Atlantic air to dominate.**

I don't see the possibilities suggested by the models, over the last few days, achieving outcome and instead, I'm confident that the wet weather will dominate at the start of Feb.


I wonder if, in contrast to the last few years, this could end up being
a completely snowless winter here in W Sussex.

Adam Lea wrote:
On 22/01/2014 21:01, Dawlish wrote:
Enough consistency and agreement for me to forecast:

**At T+240 on 1st Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an
Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally
wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average with only
ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of
frost and fog. Snow on Northern hills may well occur in the lee of any
depressions and as the fronts approach; it will be the start of
February. The high pressure over Scandinavia, which will threaten to
affect our weather over the next 8 days will retreat eastwards,
allowing the Atlantic air to dominate.**

I don't see the possibilities suggested by the models, over the last
few days, achieving outcome and instead, I'm confident that the wet
weather will dominate at the start of Feb.


I wonder if, in contrast to the last few years, this could end up being
a completely snowless winter here in W Sussex.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Not according to Exacta Weather. Unbeleivably they are still going for
an exceptional cold spell with severe frosts and snow from January 21st!!!
Apparently it was just delayed a bit (like from November)because NASA
got it wrong.
Reminder of what they said in November - of course noone can predict a
season ahead but as they think they can it's only right you should see
how good they a-
"The following information was also issued to subscribers on the 7th
November 2013 in reference to the January to March period of 2014 - 76
days ahead:


(also remember the delay in the arrival of snow and cold explanation
from this point)


Due to the overall severity and nature of the expected weather
developments for the first quarter of 2014 (January – March), it must be
noted, that it is now of very high confidence, that many parts of the UK
and Ireland will experience a significant and prolonged period of
exceptionally cold and very snowy weather, that standard meteorology
will and have to date (underestimated).


An exceptionally prolonged period of widespread cold is therefore highly
likely to develop throughout this winter and last into next spring,
which will also be accompanied by snow drifts of several feet and
long-lasting snow accumulations on a widespread scale.


A scenario similar to December 2010 is likely to develop, but on a more
prolonged scale in terms of overall duration. January, in particular, is
likely to be an exceptionally cold and snowy month, and February is
highly likely to continue with this trend (either January or February
could be potentially record-breaking in terms of the snow and cold
episodes that are likely to develop).


The January period is likely to become progressively colder as we
progress throughout the month. This will bring a very cold and
exceptionally snowy month overall, especially in the second half of this
forecasting period."

On Wednesday, 22 January 2014 21:01:57 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Enough consistency and agreement for me to forecast:



**At T+240 on 1st Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow on Northern hills may well occur in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach; it will be the start of February. The high pressure over Scandinavia, which will threaten to affect our weather over the next 8 days will retreat eastwards, allowing the Atlantic air to dominate.**



I don't see the possibilities suggested by the models, over the last few days, achieving outcome and instead, I'm confident that the wet weather will dominate at the start of Feb.

Which of the two main models are you basing that on and at what time
12z or the 18z

On Thursday, January 23, 2014 12:07:05 AM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Adam Lea wrote:

On 22/01/2014 21:01, Dawlish wrote:

Enough consistency and agreement for me to forecast:



**At T+240 on 1st Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an

Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally

wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average with only

ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of

frost and fog. Snow on Northern hills may well occur in the lee of any

depressions and as the fronts approach; it will be the start of

February. The high pressure over Scandinavia, which will threaten to

affect our weather over the next 8 days will retreat eastwards,

allowing the Atlantic air to dominate.**



I don't see the possibilities suggested by the models, over the last

few days, achieving outcome and instead, I'm confident that the wet

weather will dominate at the start of Feb.





I wonder if, in contrast to the last few years, this could end up being

a completely snowless winter here in W Sussex.

--------------------------------------------------------------

Not according to Exacta Weather. Unbeleivably they are still going for

an exceptional cold spell with severe frosts and snow from January 21st!!!

Apparently it was just delayed a bit (like from November)because NASA

got it wrong.

Reminder of what they said in November - of course noone can predict a

season ahead but as they think they can it's only right you should see

how good they a-

"The following information was also issued to subscribers on the 7th

November 2013 in reference to the January to March period of 2014 - 76

days ahead:





(also remember the delay in the arrival of snow and cold explanation

from this point)





Due to the overall severity and nature of the expected weather

developments for the first quarter of 2014 (January – March), it must be

noted, that it is now of very high confidence, that many parts of the UK

and Ireland will experience a significant and prolonged period of

exceptionally cold and very snowy weather, that standard meteorology

will and have to date (underestimated).





An exceptionally prolonged period of widespread cold is therefore highly

likely to develop throughout this winter and last into next spring,

which will also be accompanied by snow drifts of several feet and

long-lasting snow accumulations on a widespread scale.





A scenario similar to December 2010 is likely to develop, but on a more

prolonged scale in terms of overall duration. January, in particular, is

likely to be an exceptionally cold and snowy month, and February is

highly likely to continue with this trend (either January or February

could be potentially record-breaking in terms of the snow and cold

episodes that are likely to develop).





The January period is likely to become progressively colder as we

progress throughout the month. This will bring a very cold and

exceptionally snowy month overall, especially in the second half of this

forecasting period."

*)) For that to happen this month, that high to the east of Scandinavia would have to move westwards and I can't see that happening, I'm afraid.

I did say, rather flippantly again, that most areas would see some snow, at the start of the winter, Adam...............I'm less sure now, but there is still a month to go!

On Wednesday, January 22, 2014 9:01:57 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Enough consistency and agreement for me to forecast:



**At T+240 on 1st Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow on Northern hills may well occur in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach; it will be the start of February. The high pressure over Scandinavia, which will threaten to affect our weather over the next 8 days will retreat eastwards, allowing the Atlantic air to dominate.**



I don't see the possibilities suggested by the models, over the last few days, achieving outcome and instead, I'm confident that the wet weather will dominate at the start of Feb.

Mainly correct, but the re-establishment of Atlantic conditions has occurred a little later than i expected. Atlantic air covers the country and the high over Scandinavia has retreated, allowing the current depression in, but temperatures are not wisely above average.

On 01/02/2014 21:34, Dawlish wrote:

Mainly correct, but the re-establishment of Atlantic conditions has
occurred a little later than i expected. Atlantic air covers the
country and the high over Scandinavia has retreated, allowing the
current depression in,

but temperatures are not wisely above
average.

I assume you meant 'widely' there.


--

Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

On Sunday, February 2, 2014 7:31:29 AM UTC, vidcapper wrote:
On 01/02/2014 21:34, Dawlish wrote:



Mainly correct, but the re-establishment of Atlantic conditions has

occurred a little later than i expected. Atlantic air covers the

country and the high over Scandinavia has retreated, allowing the

current depression in,



but temperatures are not wisely above

average.



I assume you meant 'widely' there.





--



Paul Hyett, Cheltenham

*))

On Sunday, February 2, 2014 7:48:58 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, February 2, 2014 7:31:29 AM UTC, vidcapper wrote:

On 01/02/2014 21:34, Dawlish wrote:







Mainly correct, but the re-establishment of Atlantic conditions has



occurred a little later than i expected. Atlantic air covers the



country and the high over Scandinavia has retreated, allowing the



current depression in,







but temperatures are not wisely above



average.







I assume you meant 'widely' there.











--







Paul Hyett, Cheltenham



*))

The forecast wasn't too bad though.

On Wednesday, 22 January 2014 22:01:57 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
Enough consistency and agreement for me to forecast:



**At T+240 on 1st Feb, the UK will be experiencing weather with an Atlantic source. Low pressures crossing the UK will lead to generally wet and windy weather. Temperatures will be above average with only ridges of high pressure providing respites, with the possibility of frost and fog. Snow on Northern hills may well occur in the lee of any depressions and as the fronts approach; it will be the start of February. The high pressure over Scandinavia, which will threaten to affect our weather over the next 8 days will retreat eastwards, allowing the Atlantic air to dominate.**



I don't see the possibilities suggested by the models, over the last few days, achieving outcome and instead, I'm confident that the wet weather will dominate at the start of Feb.

The weather models are wrong are they? Who would have thought it eh!