I certainly can't recall such relentlessly similar charts since I've
been looking at computer models over the last 10 years. The thing that
strikes me is the small variation in the tracks of the lows. Apart from
zero cold snaps (or even hints at them in future charts) there haven't
been any brief northerlies or north westerlies which usually occur
during the odd transitional phase.
Dave, S.Essex

In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
I certainly can't recall such relentlessly similar charts since I've
been looking at computer models over the last 10 years. The thing
that strikes me is the small variation in the tracks of the lows. Apart
from zero cold snaps (or even hints at them in future charts) there
haven't been any brief northerlies or north westerlies which
usually occur during the odd transitional phase.
Dave, S.Essex

I think you might have to go back to 1962-3 to find a winter as
remarkable as this one, for southern England at least. Of course 1962-3
was remarkable in a very different way. I can't remember another winter
with such frequent or (for the most part) deep depressions affecting us.
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"

On Thursday, February 6, 2014 7:20:31 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I certainly can't recall such relentlessly similar charts since I've

been looking at computer models over the last 10 years. The thing that

strikes me is the small variation in the tracks of the lows. Apart from

zero cold snaps (or even hints at them in future charts) there haven't

been any brief northerlies or north westerlies which usually occur

during the odd transitional phase.

Dave, S.Essex

Are you talking about rainfall?
If so, yes down in these parts.
Plymouth rain:
1993-1994 Dec 225 mm Jan 161 mm =386 mm
1914-1915 Dec 252 mm Jan 100 mm =352 mm
2012-2013 Dec 289 mm Jan 139 mm =428 mm!
2013-2014 Dec 158 mm Jan 194 mm =352 mm

There are more but I got bored looking.
People have such short memories.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon

Having just returned from Haute Savoie I was hoping that there would be some light on the horizon from this interminable rain, but alas. The Alpine locals said they can't remember a winter of such variability, they've got good snow but the weather has been up and down like a yo-yo with no long settled, sunny spells, which is often a characteristic of January. The snow line has also been high most of the winter. At one point yesterday I was skiing in heavy rain at 650m - this gradually lowered through the day, the snow lowering the wet bulb temperature. There was a covering of 5cm at 650m before the weather cleared. Anyway at least I've had some sort of snow fix this winter.
Looking back at past winters the synoptic pattern this year is indeed very rare. If the pattern stays until the end of the month I would have given the probability at the start of winter as between 5 and 10 per cent. I suppose it just goes to show that precedents are there to be broken and we haven't yet got all the tools to predict a season ahead, if we ever will?

On Thursday, February 6, 2014 7:50:08 PM UTC, Len Wood wrote:
On Thursday, February 6, 2014 7:20:31 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:

I certainly can't recall such relentlessly similar charts since I've



been looking at computer models over the last 10 years. The thing that



strikes me is the small variation in the tracks of the lows. Apart from



zero cold snaps (or even hints at them in future charts) there haven't



been any brief northerlies or north westerlies which usually occur



during the odd transitional phase.



Dave, S.Essex



Are you talking about rainfall?

If so, yes down in these parts.

Plymouth rain:

1993-1994 Dec 225 mm Jan 161 mm =386 mm

1914-1915 Dec 252 mm Jan 100 mm =352 mm

2012-2013 Dec 289 mm Jan 139 mm =428 mm!

2013-2014 Dec 158 mm Jan 194 mm =352 mm



There are more but I got bored looking.

People have such short memories.



Len

Wembury, SW Devon

Not so sure in the south and southeast for January in particular.

From reputable sources (Philip Eden and the Met Office) January is second only to 1948 for wetness in England and Wales (and then only just); January is the most cyclonic January on record, and the Met Office are suggesting, admittedly not using measurements, that for runs of continuous raindays southern England may not have had anything like this in the past 250 years.

The cyclonicity certainly is exceptional, probably more so than rainfall amount. Looking at previous similar, but less extreme winters such as 1990, 1994 and 1995 - all of those had significant interludes when the pressure was above 1016mb in the south.

I suspect by the time we get to mid month if the models are to be believed this winter will stand out above all others in people's lifetimes. In terms of variability from the norm as regards pressure patterns it seems comparable to 1962/63.

Len Wood wrote:
On Thursday, February 6, 2014 7:20:31 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I certainly can't recall such relentlessly similar charts since I've

been looking at computer models over the last 10 years. The thing that

strikes me is the small variation in the tracks of the lows. Apart from

zero cold snaps (or even hints at them in future charts) there haven't

been any brief northerlies or north westerlies which usually occur

during the odd transitional phase.

Dave, S.Essex

Are you talking about rainfall?
If so, yes down in these parts.
Plymouth rain:
1993-1994 Dec 225 mm Jan 161 mm =386 mm
1914-1915 Dec 252 mm Jan 100 mm =352 mm
2012-2013 Dec 289 mm Jan 139 mm =428 mm!
2013-2014 Dec 158 mm Jan 194 mm =352 mm

There are more but I got bored looking.
People have such short memories.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon
---------------------------------
No Len. Not rainfall. Continuous unbroken weather type.

Scott W wrote:
Having just returned from Haute Savoie I was hoping that there would be some light on the horizon from this interminable rain, but alas. The Alpine locals said they can't remember a winter of such variability, they've got good snow but the weather has been up and down like a yo-yo with no long settled, sunny spells, which is often a characteristic of January. The snow line has also been high most of the winter. At one point yesterday I was skiing in heavy rain at 650m - this gradually lowered through the day, the snow lowering the wet bulb temperature. There was a covering of 5cm at 650m before the weather cleared. Anyway at least I've had some sort of snow fix this winter.
Looking back at past winters the synoptic pattern this year is indeed very rare. If the pattern stays until the end of the month I would have given the probability at the start of winter as between 5 and 10 per cent. I suppose it just goes to show that precedents are there to be broken and we haven't yet got all the tools to predict a season ahead, if we ever will?
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Although less in amounts than other areas it may be even more extreme
for some Eastern parts like East Essex where the rain often peters out
making it the driest part of the Country. With such power in the jet
stream they have been pushing right through this winter. I've commented
recently about a lack of this weather type in recent years and this has
certainly compensated for that!

On 06/02/2014 19:27, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:
I certainly can't recall such relentlessly similar charts since I've
been looking at computer models over the last 10 years. The thing
that strikes me is the small variation in the tracks of the lows. Apart
from zero cold snaps (or even hints at them in future charts) there
haven't been any brief northerlies or north westerlies which
usually occur during the odd transitional phase.
Dave, S.Essex

I think you might have to go back to 1962-3 to find a winter as
remarkable as this one, for southern England at least. Of course 1962-3
was remarkable in a very different way. I can't remember another winter
with such frequent or (for the most part) deep depressions affecting us.


1989/90?

On 06/02/2014 19:50, Len Wood wrote:
On Thursday, February 6, 2014 7:20:31 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
I certainly can't recall such relentlessly similar charts since I've

been looking at computer models over the last 10 years. The thing that

strikes me is the small variation in the tracks of the lows. Apart from

zero cold snaps (or even hints at them in future charts) there haven't

been any brief northerlies or north westerlies which usually occur

during the odd transitional phase.

Dave, S.Essex

Are you talking about rainfall?
If so, yes down in these parts.
Plymouth rain:
1993-1994 Dec 225 mm Jan 161 mm =386 mm
1914-1915 Dec 252 mm Jan 100 mm =352 mm
2012-2013 Dec 289 mm Jan 139 mm =428 mm!
2013-2014 Dec 158 mm Jan 194 mm =352 mm

There are more but I got bored looking.
People have such short memories.

Len
Wembury, SW Devon



Looking at one location doesn't tell you anything about the bigger
picture, which is more what I think Dave was getting at.

On Thursday, 6 February 2014 23:46:35 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Scott W wrote: Having just returned from Haute Savoie I was hoping that there would be some light on the horizon from this interminable rain, but alas. The Alpine locals said they can't remember a winter of such variability, they've got good snow but the weather has been up and down like a yo-yo with no long settled, sunny spells, which is often a characteristic of January. The snow line has also been high most of the winter. At one point yesterday I was skiing in heavy rain at 650m - this gradually lowered through the day, the snow lowering the wet bulb temperature. There was a covering of 5cm at 650m before the weather cleared. Anyway at least I've had some sort of snow fix this winter. Looking back at past winters the synoptic pattern this year is indeed very rare. If the pattern stays until the end of the month I would have given the probability at the start of winter as between 5 and 10 per cent. I suppose it just goes to show that precedents are there to be broken and we haven't yet got all the tools to predict a season ahead, if we ever will? ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Although less in amounts than other areas it may be even more extreme for some Eastern parts like East Essex where the rain often peters out making it the driest part of the Country. With such power in the jet stream they have been pushing right through this winter. I've commented recently about a lack of this weather type in recent years and this has certainly compensated for that!

The contrast between my rainfall and yours shows that rainfall totals are quite variable from place to place and less predictable than temperature. (January rainfall here 239 mm, December 180 mm). Overall the cyclonicity of the winter so far is unusual but not exceptional even if my rainfall totals are. The autumn and winter of 2000-01 were as cyclonic if not more so than the present conditions. There were fewer severe gales though.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, NE Surrey, 556 ft.