On Thursday, March 20, 2014 11:36:27 AM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Thursday, March 20, 2014 11:09:13 AM UTC, Freddie wrote:

snip







and the high has certainly retrogressed.



I disagree. The pattern is progressive. There hasn't been any



retrogression.





=======



I fully concur, Freddie. It's clearly progressive.



Stephen.

I fully concur as well. The pattern is clearly progressive. (is there an echo???).

And where did I mention the pattern retrogressing?
My apologies. Badly worded. The pattern is not conducive to
anticyclones retrogressing is what I meant.

I said that the models showed that the *anticyclone* would retrogress, which is exactly what has happened.
No, it hasn't.


The high pressure, which was centred to our east before the weekend
No it wasn't - it was directly over us.

pulled back through the weekend and early this week
No it didn't. The original high decayed from the north, allowing a
westerly flow to sink south over the UK. A new anticyclone moving from
west to east was in mid atlantic at the start of the week.

to sit where it currently is in the mid Atlantic
There isn't currently a high in mid Atlantic. There is a broad trough.

allowing the incursion of cooler, Atlantic air
This occurred when the westerly flow was sinking south over the UK at
the weekend.

and the change to a more progressive pattern, from a blocked pattern;
This occurred when the original block was eroded from the north by
strong cross-Atlantic westerlies - last weekend.

--
Freddie
Castle Pulverbatch
Shropshire
221m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PulverbatchWx for hourly reports

On Thursday, March 20, 2014 2:24:46 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
And where did I mention the pattern retrogressing?

My apologies. Badly worded. The pattern is not conducive to

anticyclones retrogressing is what I meant.

Accepted.

I said that the models showed that the *anticyclone* would retrogress, which is exactly what has happened.

No, it hasn't.

Yes it has. The anticyclone, which moved as far East as to be centred to our east, then moved SW and is now centred in the mid Atlantic, south of the Azores.

The high pressure, which was centred to our east before the weekend

No it wasn't - it was directly over us.

Yes it was. Look back over the charts and you'll see that the most easterly point of its progressive journey left its centre to our east. Look back at the charts.


pulled back through the weekend and early this week

No it didn't. The original high decayed from the north, allowing a

westerly flow to sink south over the UK. A new anticyclone moving from

west to east was in mid atlantic at the start of the week.


Pressure fell from the North, giving the appearance of a "decay" (not sure exactly what you mean by that, word, Freddie) as the high pulled back SW. After a brief incursion. the high re-built and then clearly regressed SW again.

to sit where it currently is in the mid Atlantic

There isn't currently a high in mid Atlantic. There is a broad trough.

apologies from me. There is at our latitude. I was not specific enough. Look to the south of the trough in mid-Atlantic. What do you see?

allowing the incursion of cooler, Atlantic air

This occurred when the westerly flow was sinking south over the UK at

the weekend.

We've had 20C in London on Monday and a 15C max every day in some part of the UK. That is clearly not an incursion of cold Atlantic air. I don't think we've had any hill snow in that time - but we will have tomorrow and perhaps later today.

and the change to a more progressive pattern, from a blocked pattern;

This occurred when the original block was eroded from the north by

strong cross-Atlantic westerlies - last weekend.

Yes. That's why I said that this retrogression began "at the weekend", but, by today, it hasn't led to the incursion of cold Atlantic air that the charts suggested would have happened, 10 days ago. Although pressure has fallen, winds are between south-west and west, rather veering more NW, as the charts suggested would have happened by today.

I'm open to learning here, if I am wrong, but that's certainly what I saw on the charts. Do look back, as I feel you have it wrong.


Freddie

Dawlish wrote:


Why on earth would you risk abuse? I'd love you to point to a single forecast where any person who has given a worthwhile assessment has in any was suffered any "abuse". You have certainly *never* received that and neither has anyone else giving a reasonable assessment of any of the approx 150 forecasts I have made. Where you could get this from is a mystery and if you can point to *one* example, I'd love to see it, as would others, I'm sure. If not, please retract that statement. That is certainly not abuse, BTW. It's a reasonable response to a pretty foul little snipe.

Your assessment of the forecast is good and much of it I would agree with Dave. 20% of the time these forecasts are not correct. By the end of today, the cooler air will have covered most of the country, with snow showers over the Scottish mountains and the high has certainly retrogressed. I'll return to it fully later in the day.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Oh dear! I don't really want to get involved in your various spats but
as is often the case you have made completely the wrong assumption
about what someone has said and then leapt to the wrong conclusion.
I wasn't talking about insults from you!
I was talking about me receiving abuse because I have said that your
"forecast" was essentially correct. If anybody says you are right they
are usually abused by Tibbs and his ilk as I have been in the past.
I don't know why I bother sometimes, (the sensible ones have advised me
not to) but like I say, I am interested in delving into the facts, not
the personality disorders of a number of people on here.
Dave

On Thursday, March 20, 2014 3:23:44 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Dawlish wrote:





Why on earth would you risk abuse? I'd love you to point to a single forecast where any person who has given a worthwhile assessment has in any was suffered any "abuse". You have certainly *never* received that and neither has anyone else giving a reasonable assessment of any of the approx 150 forecasts I have made. Where you could get this from is a mystery and if you can point to *one* example, I'd love to see it, as would others, I'm sure. If not, please retract that statement. That is certainly not abuse, BTW. It's a reasonable response to a pretty foul little snipe.



Your assessment of the forecast is good and much of it I would agree with Dave. 20% of the time these forecasts are not correct. By the end of today, the cooler air will have covered most of the country, with snow showers over the Scottish mountains and the high has certainly retrogressed. I'll return to it fully later in the day.



--------------------------------------------------------------------

Oh dear! I don't really want to get involved in your various spats but

as is often the case you have made completely the wrong assumption

about what someone has said and then leapt to the wrong conclusion.

I wasn't talking about insults from you!

I was talking about me receiving abuse because I have said that your

"forecast" was essentially correct. If anybody says you are right they

are usually abused by Tibbs and his ilk as I have been in the past.

I don't know why I bother sometimes, (the sensible ones have advised me

not to) but like I say, I am interested in delving into the facts, not

the personality disorders of a number of people on here.

Dave

Ooooops. I obviously misunderstood and I apologise. It read as if you were having a go at me! Hence my defence. You bother because you are strong enough to stand up for your own views. some aren't. The "ilk" you speak of certainly can't.

I said that the models showed that the *anticyclone* would retrogress, which is exactly what has happened.

No, it hasn't.

Yes it has. The anticyclone, which moved as far East as to be centred to our east,
then moved SW and is now centred in the mid Atlantic, south of the
Azores.
Erm that's not what happened.

The high pressure, which was centred to our east before the weekend

No it wasn't - it was directly over us.

Yes it was. Look back over the charts and you'll see that the most easterly
point of its progressive journey left its centre to our east. Look
back at the charts.
I did look back over the charts - but only to double-check before I made my
assertions, as I follow them in real time too.

pulled back through the weekend and early this week

No it didn't. The original high decayed from the north, allowing a

westerly flow to sink south over the UK. A new anticyclone moving from

west to east was in mid atlantic at the start of the week.


Pressure fell from the North, giving the appearance of a "decay"
(not sure exactly what you mean by that, word, Freddie) as the
high pulled back SW. After a brief incursion. the high
re-built and then clearly regressed SW again.
That's exactly how highs decay - by pressure falling.

to sit where it currently is in the mid Atlantic

There isn't currently a high in mid Atlantic. There is a broad trough.

apologies from me. There is at our latitude. I was not specific
enough. Look to the south of the trough in mid-Atlantic. What
do you see?
That high is pretty much always there - it has been for the period
of the changes since you issued your forecast.

allowing the incursion of cooler, Atlantic air

This occurred when the westerly flow was sinking south over the UK at

the weekend.

We've had 20C in London on Monday and a 15C max every day in
some part of the UK. That is clearly not an incursion of
cold Atlantic air. I don't think we've had any hill snow
in that time - but we will have tomorrow and perhaps later
today.
I didn't say cooler - just a westerly flow, to differentiate our weather
from that of high pressure.

and the change to a more progressive pattern, from a blocked pattern;

This occurred when the original block was eroded from the north by

strong cross-Atlantic westerlies - last weekend.

Yes. That's why I said that this retrogression began
"at the weekend", but, by today, it hasn't led
to the incursion of cold Atlantic air that the
charts suggested would have happened, 10 days
ago. Although pressure has fallen, winds are
between south-west and west, rather veering more
NW, as the charts suggested would have happened
by today.
But it wasn't a retrogression. It was a replacement
of high pressure with a westerly flow by a
non-retrogressive method.

I'm open to learning here
Good.

--
Freddie
Castle Pulverbatch
Shropshire
221m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PulverbatchWx for hourly reports

On Thursday, March 20, 2014 8:51:24 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:
I said that the models showed that the *anticyclone* would retrogress, which is exactly what has happened.



No, it hasn't.



Yes it has. The anticyclone, which moved as far East as to be centred to our east,

then moved SW and is now centred in the mid Atlantic, south of the

Azores.

Erm that's not what happened.


Yes it was.

The high pressure, which was centred to our east before the weekend



No it wasn't - it was directly over us.



Yes it was. Look back over the charts and you'll see that the most easterly

point of its progressive journey left its centre to our east. Look

back at the charts.

I did look back over the charts - but only to double-check before I made my

assertions, as I follow them in real time too.


You have not looked carefully enough and I look at them on every run that I can.




pulled back through the weekend and early this week



No it didn't. The original high decayed from the north, allowing a



westerly flow to sink south over the UK. A new anticyclone moving from



west to east was in mid atlantic at the start of the week.





Pressure fell from the North, giving the appearance of a "decay"

(not sure exactly what you mean by that, word, Freddie) as the

high pulled back SW. After a brief incursion. the high

re-built and then clearly regressed SW again.

That's exactly how highs decay - by pressure falling.

Not from a limb!!




to sit where it currently is in the mid Atlantic



There isn't currently a high in mid Atlantic. There is a broad trough.



apologies from me. There is at our latitude. I was not specific

enough. Look to the south of the trough in mid-Atlantic. What

do you see?

That high is pretty much always there - it has been for the period

of the changes since you issued your forecast.


the high extended over us from the Azores settled over s, then to our east, then retrogressed, Freddie.

allowing the incursion of cooler, Atlantic air



This occurred when the westerly flow was sinking south over the UK at



the weekend.



We've had 20C in London on Monday and a 15C max every day in

some part of the UK. That is clearly not an incursion of

cold Atlantic air. I don't think we've had any hill snow

in that time - but we will have tomorrow and perhaps later

today.

I didn't say cooler - just a westerly flow, to differentiate our weather

from that of high pressure.

In that case, I accept that you did not say cooler.

and the change to a more progressive pattern, from a blocked pattern;



This occurred when the original block was eroded from the north by



strong cross-Atlantic westerlies - last weekend.



Yes. That's why I said that this retrogression began

"at the weekend", but, by today, it hasn't led

to the incursion of cold Atlantic air that the

charts suggested would have happened, 10 days

ago. Although pressure has fallen, winds are

between south-west and west, rather veering more

NW, as the charts suggested would have happened

by today.

But it wasn't a retrogression. It was a replacement

of high pressure with a westerly flow by a

non-retrogressive method.



I'm open to learning here

Good.

But, on the other hand, you appear not to be. It would help if you would look back more carefully at the charts for that period and provide some learning, if you can, instead of making simple assertions.

Freddie


http://twitter.com/PulverbatchWx for hourly reports

On Monday, March 10, 2014 8:03:58 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
**Retrogression of the current high, westwards into the Atlantic, will introduce a flow between west and north at T+240. As well as becoming increasingly unsettled from the NW, this flow will see cooler than average temperatures (for start of the last third of the month) for most areas of the UK, by the 20th. Frosts will be widespread if skies clear and snow over the hills may be followed by wintry showers over lower ground behind any disturbances in that flow**



A very different forecast from my last two, but there is agreement and consistency in the models, hence I have 80%+ confidence in the forecast.

10 days ago, the models were suggesting this change a day before it is actually now likely to fully happen! Not a bad forecast, but not spot on.

On Thursday, March 20, 2014 9:38:55 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, March 20, 2014 8:51:24 PM UTC, Freddie wrote:

I said that the models showed that the *anticyclone* would retrogress, which is exactly what has happened.







No, it hasn't.







Yes it has. The anticyclone, which moved as far East as to be centred to our east,



then moved SW and is now centred in the mid Atlantic, south of the



Azores.



Erm that's not what happened.





Yes it was.



The high pressure, which was centred to our east before the weekend







No it wasn't - it was directly over us.







Yes it was. Look back over the charts and you'll see that the most easterly



point of its progressive journey left its centre to our east. Look



back at the charts.



I did look back over the charts - but only to double-check before I made my



assertions, as I follow them in real time too.





You have not looked carefully enough and I look at them on every run that I can.









pulled back through the weekend and early this week







No it didn't. The original high decayed from the north, allowing a







westerly flow to sink south over the UK. A new anticyclone moving from







west to east was in mid atlantic at the start of the week.











Pressure fell from the North, giving the appearance of a "decay"



(not sure exactly what you mean by that, word, Freddie) as the



high pulled back SW. After a brief incursion. the high



re-built and then clearly regressed SW again.



That's exactly how highs decay - by pressure falling.



Not from a limb!!









to sit where it currently is in the mid Atlantic







There isn't currently a high in mid Atlantic. There is a broad trough.







apologies from me. There is at our latitude. I was not specific



enough. Look to the south of the trough in mid-Atlantic. What



do you see?



That high is pretty much always there - it has been for the period



of the changes since you issued your forecast.





the high extended over us from the Azores settled over s, then to our east, then retrogressed, Freddie.



allowing the incursion of cooler, Atlantic air







This occurred when the westerly flow was sinking south over the UK at







the weekend.







We've had 20C in London on Monday and a 15C max every day in



some part of the UK. That is clearly not an incursion of



cold Atlantic air. I don't think we've had any hill snow



in that time - but we will have tomorrow and perhaps later



today.



I didn't say cooler - just a westerly flow, to differentiate our weather



from that of high pressure.



In that case, I accept that you did not say cooler.



and the change to a more progressive pattern, from a blocked pattern;







This occurred when the original block was eroded from the north by







strong cross-Atlantic westerlies - last weekend.







Yes. That's why I said that this retrogression began



"at the weekend", but, by today, it hasn't led



to the incursion of cold Atlantic air that the



charts suggested would have happened, 10 days



ago. Although pressure has fallen, winds are



between south-west and west, rather veering more



NW, as the charts suggested would have happened



by today.



But it wasn't a retrogression. It was a replacement



of high pressure with a westerly flow by a



non-retrogressive method.







I'm open to learning here



Good.



But, on the other hand, you appear not to be. It would help if you would look back more carefully at the charts for that period and provide some learning, if you can, instead of making simple assertions.



Freddie





http://twitter.com/PulverbatchWx for hourly reports

You've gone very quiet Freddie. Still waiting for some evidence that what you've said happened is what actually happened.

snip

I did look back over the charts - but only to double-check before I made my

assertions, as I follow them in real time too.


You have not looked carefully enough and I look at them on every run that I can.
Aahh - we are talking about *analysed* charts - not model runs.


the high extended over us from the Azores settled over s, then to our east, then retrogressed, Freddie.

Seriously, if you look at the archive of charts at the link
provided below then you will see that the high didn't regress.
A new one formed in mid atlantic.




I'm open to learning here

Good.

But, on the other hand, you appear not to be.
It would help if you would look back more
carefully at the charts for that period and
provide some learning, if you can, instead of
making simple assertions.

As an exercise for the avid student, please look at the excellent
archive of analysed charts (ASXX archive) at:
http://www.woksat.info/wwp7.html

--
Freddie
Castle Pulverbatch
Shropshire
221m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
http://twitter.com/PulverbatchWx for hourly reports