There's been a fair amount of talk on the local news about the Harvest
Moon on Sat/Sun this coming weekend. Apparently - it'll be very close to
the earth so will appear very large in the sky (not that we'll be able
to see it!), it's full on Saturday night, and by all accounts it's going
to be a pretty pink colour.

So let's see if I've got this straight. A full moon creating high spring
tides - 21.14 Sunday evening at Great Yarmouth, and a deep depression
crossing the country out into the North Sea on Sunday evening with the
associated high winds and heavy rain. So why hasn't the Environment
Agency started issuing flood warnings for the east coast and river
estuaries? At the moment their forecast for Sunday along the east coast
is "low risk".

jim, Northampton

On Saturday, August 9, 2014 2:45:50 AM UTC+1, jbm wrote:
There's been a fair amount of talk on the local news about the Harvest

Moon on Sat/Sun this coming weekend. Apparently - it'll be very close to

the earth so will appear very large in the sky (not that we'll be able

to see it!), it's full on Saturday night, and by all accounts it's going

to be a pretty pink colour.



So let's see if I've got this straight. A full moon creating high spring

tides - 21.14 Sunday evening at Great Yarmouth, and a deep depression

crossing the country out into the North Sea on Sunday evening with the

associated high winds and heavy rain. So why hasn't the Environment

Agency started issuing flood warnings for the east coast and river

estuaries? At the moment their forecast for Sunday along the east coast

is "low risk".



jim, Northampton

The lack of a storm surge? The track of the depression wouldn't suggest there will be one.

On Saturday, August 9, 2014 2:45:50 AM UTC+1, jbm wrote:
There's been a fair amount of talk on the local news about the Harvest

Moon on Sat/Sun this coming weekend. Apparently - it'll be very close to

the earth so will appear very large in the sky (not that we'll be able

to see it!), it's full on Saturday night, and by all accounts it's going

to be a pretty pink colour.



So let's see if I've got this straight. A full moon creating high spring

tides - 21.14 Sunday evening at Great Yarmouth, and a deep depression

crossing the country out into the North Sea on Sunday evening with the

associated high winds and heavy rain. So why hasn't the Environment

Agency started issuing flood warnings for the east coast and river

estuaries? At the moment their forecast for Sunday along the east coast

is "low risk".



jim, Northampton

There are no northerlies in the forecast which is the worst direction for a storm surge.
Mind you, southeasterlies are forecast for a few hours on Sunday morning.
High tide is 0933 BST at Lowestoft so they might want to watch out.

Len
Wembury

I don't see this as producing widespread coastline flooding in the east. It's the wrong set-up. The south coast and especially the SW is more at risk, I would have thought. Even then, it depends on a combinatipn of factors.

On Saturday, 9 August 2014 02:45:50 UTC+1, jbm wrote:


So let's see if I've got this straight. A full moon creating high spring
tides - 21.14 Sunday evening at Great Yarmouth, and a deep depression
crossing the country out into the North Sea on Sunday evening with the
associated high winds and heavy rain.

Deep depression?
What deep depression?

A 996 currently bifurcating to a 1000 mb centre over the North Sea?

Said bifurcate becomes a triple centre with the system contra-rotating about itself for the flow of the model run on he
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/w...ime=1407499200

At t+60 (Noon, Monday the 11th August 2014) it reinvests itself as a 977 but only as an harmonic in the presence of a large tropical Low. (I dare say someone in the UK extremities will be able to point to reliable suitable cloud effect, if he has learned to read omens by now.)

Since you are in the Midlands, look for a suitable orient with frozen high cloud for defining magnitude. (The extremities of olde Ynglande apparently deficient in such things.)

On Saturday, August 9, 2014 2:45:50 AM UTC+1, jbm wrote:
There's been a fair amount of talk on the local news about the Harvest
Moon on Sat/Sun this coming weekend. Apparently - it'll be very close to
the earth so will appear very large in the sky (not that we'll be able
to see it!), it's full on Saturday night, and by all accounts it's going
to be a pretty pink colour.

So let's see if I've got this straight. A full moon creating high spring
tides - 21.14 Sunday evening at Great Yarmouth, and a deep depression
crossing the country out into the North Sea on Sunday evening with the
associated high winds and heavy rain. So why hasn't the Environment
Agency started issuing flood warnings for the east coast and river
estuaries? At the moment their forecast for Sunday along the east coast
is "low risk".

jim, Northampton

The tides aren't veryt big on Sunday, there is typically a 2 day delay after a full moon. So taking Newquay as an example, Sunday's tide is 7.3m, by Tuesday it's 7.7m.

There's also been a lot of talk about a big swell. It'll be rough, but the situation is completely wrong for a big swell, which needs sustained gales for a prolonged period over a wide area. http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/

Taking the tip of Cornwall as an example, the peak swell forecast for Sennen is just 10', which typically occurs several times in a normal September, twice that height occurs several times a year, and last winter exceed 30' on several occasions.

I (and another member of USW) were on a RIB off Gwennap Head one September, when the swell reached 18' at Sevenstones, it was quite fun and not in the least dangerous..

Still, lets not let facts get in the way of the latest hype.

Graham
Penzance

Taking the tip of Cornwall as an example, the peak swell forecast for Sennen is just 10', which typically occurs several times in a normal September, twice that height occurs several times a year, and last winter exceed 30' on several occasions.

Correction, latest forecast just 8', which is of no significance whatsoever and is exceeded on the large majority of months. It's forecast to be 10-12' on Tuesday, due to the persistent run of strong westerlies.

Off Land's a swell height of around 45' (well 13m - you convert it) has a 5 year return period. (Thanks Norman!)


Graham
Penzance

On Saturday, 9 August 2014 13:08:47 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:

The tides aren't very big on Sunday, there is typically a 2 day delay after a full moon. So taking Newquay as an example, Sunday's tide is 7.3m, by Tuesday it's 7.7m.

While 7 meters is high for some, I don't remember it as exceptional for British Waters. Any idea how high they get in any infamous North Sea storms?

Thought as much:
http://www.ntslf.org/tides/tidepred
Over 10 meters at Gladstone Loch, Liverpool on Thursday morning, 14th August 2014.

On Saturday, 9 August 2014 13:34:10 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:


Taking the tip of Cornwall as an example, the peak swell forecast for Sennen is just 10', which typically occurs several times in a normal September, twice that height occurs several times a year, and last winter exceed 30' on several occasions.

Correction, latest forecast just 8', which is of no significance whatsoever and is exceeded on the large majority of months. It's forecast to be 10-12' on Tuesday, due to the persistent run of strong westerlies.

Do you mean 8 metres?
8 metres = 26 feet.

Off Land's a swell height of around 45' (well 13m - you convert it) has a 5 year return period. (Thanks Norman!)

Where is the data on these swells?
The best I can get are extreme tidal heights:
http://www.ntslf.org/tides/hilo?port=Newlyn

5 year returns have a correlation with the cycle of the seasons but that is not an exact time-scale. Even the 18.6 lunar nodal return doesn't correspond to such a thing exactly.

On Sat, 09 Aug 2014 02:45:50 +0100, jbm wrote:

There's been a fair amount of talk on the local news about the Harvest
Moon on Sat/Sun this coming weekend. Apparently - it'll be very close to
the earth so will appear very large in the sky (not that we'll be able
to see it!), it's full on Saturday night, and by all accounts it's going
to be a pretty pink colour.

So let's see if I've got this straight. A full moon creating high spring
tides - 21.14 Sunday evening at Great Yarmouth, and a deep depression
crossing the country out into the North Sea on Sunday evening with the
associated high winds and heavy rain. So why hasn't the Environment
Agency started issuing flood warnings for the east coast and river
estuaries? At the moment their forecast for Sunday along the east coast
is "low risk".

jim, Northampton

The Express is taking it calmly:

http://www.express.co.uk/news/nature...f-world-Sunday