Looking good once the after-effects of Christobal leave us. Lots of dry weather and some sunny and warm weather too. high pressure in charge at T240 on 8th Sept.

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Looking good once the after-effects of Christobal leave us. Lots of dry
weather and some sunny and warm weather too. high pressure in charge at
T240 on 8th Sept.

I was beggining to wonder if you had given up on these forecasts
as you hadn't issued for ages.
I presume your criteria for model consistency simply hadn't been met?
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Col wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
Looking good once the after-effects of Christobal leave us. Lots of dry
weather and some sunny and warm weather too. high pressure in charge at
T240 on 8th Sept.

I was beggining to wonder if you had given up on these forecasts
as you hadn't issued for ages.
I presume your criteria for model consistency simply hadn't been met?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
I would guess that is the case Col. Unfortunately, despite all the hard
work it takes, the rewards are limited because it doesn't happen that
often. As for the excellent outcome of these, it is a bit of a case of
"it wouldn't it" because the stats are already in place to give a high
confidence level. It is of interest though in that it shows how rarely a
ten day forecast can be relied on, although there is no control to show
what the outcome of ten day forecasts that didn't meet the criteria were
like. Before Paul suggests it - yes I know I should try it and it is a
lot of hard work, which is precisely why I haven't !
Dave

On Friday, August 29, 2014 11:15:46 PM UTC+1, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Col wrote:

"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

Looking good once the after-effects of Christobal leave us. Lots of dry

weather and some sunny and warm weather too. high pressure in charge at

T240 on 8th Sept.



I was beggining to wonder if you had given up on these forecasts

as you hadn't issued for ages.

I presume your criteria for model consistency simply hadn't been met?

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

I would guess that is the case Col. Unfortunately, despite all the hard

work it takes, the rewards are limited because it doesn't happen that

often. As for the excellent outcome of these, it is a bit of a case of

"it wouldn't it" because the stats are already in place to give a high

confidence level. It is of interest though in that it shows how rarely a

ten day forecast can be relied on, although there is no control to show

what the outcome of ten day forecasts that didn't meet the criteria were

like. Before Paul suggests it - yes I know I should try it and it is a

lot of hard work, which is precisely why I haven't !

Dave

*))

On Friday, August 29, 2014 8:20:03 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
Looking good once the after-effects of Christobal leave us. Lots of dry weather and some sunny and warm weather too. high pressure in charge at T240 on 8th Sept.

GEM is out on a limb, not showing high pressure over much of the UK on the 8th and has been for 24 hours. Odd?

On Sunday, August 31, 2014 9:51:08 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Friday, August 29, 2014 8:20:03 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

Looking good once the after-effects of Christobal leave us. Lots of dry weather and some sunny and warm weather too. high pressure in charge at T240 on 8th Sept.



GEM is out on a limb, not showing high pressure over much of the UK on the 8th and has been for 24 hours. Odd?

GEM still showing a fairly deep depression close to the SW in a week's time.. It's not there on ECM, or gfs. Either it knows something they don't, or vice versa! Quite a difference at only 7 days. FAX and the Countryfile forecast suggesting some unsettled stuff towards the early part of the weekend though. It'll be interesting how this pans out.

On Friday, 29 August 2014 20:20:03 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
Looking good once the after-effects of Christobal leave us. Lots of dry weather and some sunny and warm weather too. high pressure in charge at T240 on 8th Sept.

Well the weekend was overcast and today (Monday)****ed down high pressure to edge north but no Greenland /Atlantic high now

Lawrence SE London altitude 41 meters attitude immature

On Monday, September 1, 2014 9:26:15 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, August 31, 2014 9:51:08 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Friday, August 29, 2014 8:20:03 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:



Looking good once the after-effects of Christobal leave us. Lots of dry weather and some sunny and warm weather too. high pressure in charge at T240 on 8th Sept.







GEM is out on a limb, not showing high pressure over much of the UK on the 8th and has been for 24 hours. Odd?



GEM still showing a fairly deep depression close to the SW in a week's time. It's not there on ECM, or gfs. Either it knows something they don't, or vice versa! Quite a difference at only 7 days. FAX and the Countryfile forecast suggesting some unsettled stuff towards the early part of the weekend though. It'll be interesting how this pans out.

The low has disappeared from GEM. No worries around this forecast for the 8th now.

On Tuesday, September 2, 2014 12:09:33 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, September 1, 2014 9:26:15 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Sunday, August 31, 2014 9:51:08 AM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

On Friday, August 29, 2014 8:20:03 PM UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
Looking good once the after-effects of Christobal leave us. Lots of dry weather and some sunny and warm weather too. high pressure in charge at T240 on 8th Sept.

GEM is out on a limb, not showing high pressure over much of the UK on the 8th and has been for 24 hours. Odd?

GEM still showing a fairly deep depression close to the SW in a week's time. It's not there on ECM, or gfs. Either it knows something they don't, or vice versa! Quite a difference at only 7 days. FAX and the Countryfile forecast suggesting some unsettled stuff towards the early part of the weekend though. It'll be interesting how this pans out.

The low has disappeared from GEM. No worries around this forecast for the 8th now.

It is amazing how things can change. After the charts showed no worries for this forecast 24 hours ago, look at the charts now.

And some people think I only forecast sure-fire bets which anyone could forecast. Hilarious! Just try it, if you think what I do is easy. 20% of the time, I'm wrong, remember.

On Wednesday, 3 September 2014 09:53:39 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:

Just try it, if you think what I do is easy.

I pop my head in the door and I notice you're still puffing out your chest with your tedious playground "come and have a go if you think you're hard enough" braggadocio. What an unedifying spectacle - as ever.

Richard