What do you make of this boys and girls.....?

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

RonB

"ron button" wrote in message
...
What do you make of this boys and girls.....?

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php


Very good but one *crucial* upstream difference he did not mention on
comparing the SST charts was that off Alaska this year it is warm, whereas
in 2009 it was cold. The warmth over Alaska will encourage a deeper cold
pool over eastern Canada and hence a strong jet. Personally I would go for a
stormy December with intermittent normal cold but no real cold developing
until we get well into January when the weak AO will start to manifest with
more blocking. Mind you if things change this month then I will change my
mind too, my forecast will be issued on my web site at the end of November.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Wednesday, 12 November 2014 17:39:02 UTC, wrote:
"ron button" wrote in message
...
What do you make of this boys and girls.....?

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php


Very good but one *crucial* upstream difference he did not mention on
comparing the SST charts was that off Alaska this year it is warm, whereas
in 2009 it was cold. The warmth over Alaska will encourage a deeper cold
pool over eastern Canada and hence a strong jet. Personally I would go for a
stormy December with intermittent normal cold but no real cold developing
until we get well into January when the weak AO will start to manifest with
more blocking. Mind you if things change this month then I will change my
mind too, my forecast will be issued on my web site at the end of November.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

With that crucial difference in mind, Will, what probability would you put on there NOT being a repeat of 2009/10? I would say this decreases it by as much as 50%, maybe more

--

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On Wednesday, November 12, 2014 5:39:02 PM UTC, wrote:


Very good but one *crucial* upstream difference he did not mention on
comparing the SST charts was that off Alaska this year it is warm, whereas
in 2009 it was cold. The warmth over Alaska will encourage a deeper cold
pool over eastern Canada and hence a strong jet. Personally I would go for a
stormy December with intermittent normal cold but no real cold developing
until we get well into January when the weak AO will start to manifest
with more blocking.

==========

That's certainly the *kind* of forecast we've issued as well.

The video smacks of someone seeking out evidence for 2009/10 levels of cold and finding the facts that fit (of which there are certainly a few) but ignoring those that do not - rather than drawing a conclusion from the evidence. The Gulf of Alaska SSTs (and PDO state) are indeed a very significant case in point. And the cold pool in the Atlantic is in a different position - this time around SSTs are notably higher in the vicinity of Newfoundland.

Stephen.

On Wednesday, November 12, 2014 5:13:39 PM UTC, Malcolm wrote:

"Captain Bob takes a slightly unorthodox view of weather prediction. He
uses computer model output, but also includes much analogues
information, sea surface temperature and index techniques to improve his
longer range guidance."

Would you pay good money for "Captain Bob's" forecasts........?


===========

I've read some of them, so - no.

And there's nothing "unorthodox" about using "much analogues" [sic], SSTs and "index techniques".

Stephen.

On 12/11/2014 17:38, Eskimo Will wrote:

"ron button" wrote in message
...
What do you make of this boys and girls.....?

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php


Very good but one *crucial* upstream difference he did not mention on
comparing the SST charts was that off Alaska this year it is warm,
whereas in 2009 it was cold. The warmth over Alaska will encourage a
deeper cold pool over eastern Canada and hence a strong jet. Personally
I would go for a stormy December with intermittent normal cold but no
real cold developing until we get well into January when the weak AO
will start to manifest with more blocking. Mind you if things change
this month then I will change my mind too, my forecast will be issued on
my web site at the end of November.

Will

Very enthusiastic chap, I've had to blank out the sound of his voice as
it reminds me of someone in the franchisor game, once that filter was
put I found it good.

We shall see, but it also follows my thoughts of winter coming early as
it did in a couple of other similar autumns that I was comparing to a
few weeks back.

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

On Wednesday, November 12, 2014 4:51:53 PM UTC, ron button wrote:
What do you make of this boys and girls.....?

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

RonB

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
He gives 30% likelihood/confidence on his musings and emphasises that it is not a forecast.
I find this all rather puzzling.
I would not bother to open my mouth if I was so unsure.


Len
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

On 12/11/2014 20:29, Len Wood wrote:
On Wednesday, November 12, 2014 4:51:53 PM UTC, ron button wrote:
What do you make of this boys and girls.....?

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

RonB

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
He gives 30% likelihood/confidence on his musings and emphasises that it is not a forecast.
I find this all rather puzzling.
I would not bother to open my mouth if I was so unsure.


Len
--------------------------------------------------------------------------


Len, I always like to hear peoples thoughts and analysis. This is where
this newsgroup all went wrong when no one was allowed to air their
thoughts without being insulted and critised. It is the main thing I
miss on this group. I think he was right to say it wasn't a forecast but
to just take on face value.

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@LawnscienceEssx

On Wednesday, November 12, 2014 5:39:02 PM UTC, wrote:
"ron button" wrote in message
...
What do you make of this boys and girls.....?

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php


Very good but one *crucial* upstream difference he did not mention on
comparing the SST charts was that off Alaska this year it is warm, whereas
in 2009 it was cold. The warmth over Alaska will encourage a deeper cold
pool over eastern Canada and hence a strong jet. Personally I would go for a
stormy December with intermittent normal cold but no real cold developing
until we get well into January when the weak AO will start to manifest with
more blocking. Mind you if things change this month then I will change my
mind too, my forecast will be issued on my web site at the end of November.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

"The warmth over Alaska *will* encourage a deeper cold
pool over eastern Canada.

"may"; certainly not; "will", I'm afraid.

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
On 12/11/2014 16:51, ron button wrote:
What do you make of this boys and girls.....?

http://www.weatherweb.net/wxwebtv2.php

RonB




Just a thought, I take it the SSW shown on those models is only a forecast
atm, what certainty is there that it's going to warm etc?


Hi Keith, just spent past half hour examining the strat. It is a forecast
from NCEP/GFS (fairly reliable) and the warming has propagated down to 30hPa
by T+240. Quite a change from T+0 charts (12Z today). *If* it does propagate
further down then in circa 2 weeks after propagation we *may* see a pattern
change (i.e. circa 4 weeks from now). Having said that I still expect a
stormy zonal start to Dec due to deep cold vortex over E. Canada
established. Will be interesting to see how things pan out in next two weeks
before I issue on my web site. Line I am taking with neighbours at present
(as I'm always being asked), is that this month will be wet and that Dec
could well be stormy but the winter will *not* be as wet or as stormy as
last year. Could it be wetter? :-) I do not mention Jan into Feb at all,
except on here and in other places.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------