Enough agreements and consistency from last night t this evening for me to forecast with at least 80% confidence. It's the location of the high which will be crucial to an area's actual weather, however, and that's by no means certain. I can say this much:

"On 11th Feb, at T+240, the UK will be under the influence of high pressure and Atlantic weather systems will be blocked and kept at bay from most of the UK. The weather will be dry in most areas and winds will be mainly light. As for temperatures, it depends on where the high sits and whether cloud cover is extensive and that is just not possible to determine at this distance, though NW Scotland's weather may have more of an Atlantic influence. Where clouds clear, fog and frost may form, but anticyclonic gloom under thick stratus may well be pervasive."

Dry and sunny with night frosts; springlike in the daytime? Extensive fog? A cold easterly drift keeping daytime temperatures down? Who'd be a forecaster eh? Still. It's my view that high pressure will be in charge of our weather in 10 days.

On 01/02/2015 19:41, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreements and consistency from last night t this evening for me to forecast with at least 80% confidence. It's the location of the high which will be crucial to an area's actual weather, however, and that's by no means certain. I can say this much:

"On 11th Feb, at T+240, the UK will be under the influence of high pressure and Atlantic weather systems will be blocked and kept at bay from most of the UK. The weather will be dry in most areas and winds will be mainly light. As for temperatures, it depends on where the high sits and whether cloud cover is extensive and that is just not possible to determine at this distance, though NW Scotland's weather may have more of an Atlantic influence. Where clouds clear, fog and frost may form, but anticyclonic gloom under thick stratus may well be pervasive."

Dry and sunny with night frosts; springlike in the daytime? Extensive fog? A cold easterly drift keeping daytime temperatures down? Who'd be a forecaster eh? Still. It's my view that high pressure will be in charge of our weather in 10 days.

------------------------------------
Looks pretty "nailed on" this one.

On Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 10:39:13 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 01/02/2015 19:41, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreements and consistency from last night t this evening for me to forecast with at least 80% confidence. It's the location of the high which will be crucial to an area's actual weather, however, and that's by no means certain. I can say this much:

"On 11th Feb, at T+240, the UK will be under the influence of high pressure and Atlantic weather systems will be blocked and kept at bay from most of the UK. The weather will be dry in most areas and winds will be mainly light. As for temperatures, it depends on where the high sits and whether cloud cover is extensive and that is just not possible to determine at this distance, though NW Scotland's weather may have more of an Atlantic influence. Where clouds clear, fog and frost may form, but anticyclonic gloom under thick stratus may well be pervasive."

Dry and sunny with night frosts; springlike in the daytime? Extensive fog? A cold easterly drift keeping daytime temperatures down? Who'd be a forecaster eh? Still. It's my view that high pressure will be in charge of our weather in 10 days.

------------------------------------
Looks pretty "nailed on" this one.

Ha! I wish that were the case 9 days out when you wrote this! ECM 12z wouldn't agree this morning and introduces a strong Atlantic flow at 8 days out!

In message ,
Dawlish writes
On Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 10:39:13 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 01/02/2015 19:41, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreements and consistency from last night t this evening
for me to forecast with at least 80% confidence. It's the location
of the high which will be crucial to an area's actual weather,
however, and that's by no means certain. I can say this much:

"On 11th Feb, at T+240, the UK will be under the influence of high
pressure and Atlantic weather systems will be blocked and kept at
bay from most of the UK. The weather will be dry in most areas and
be mainly light. As for temperatures, it depends on where the high
sits and whether cloud cover is extensive and that is just not
possible to determine at this distance, though NW Scotland's weather
may have more of an Atlantic influence. Where clouds clear, fog and
frost may form, but anticyclonic gloom under thick stratus may well be pervasive."

Dry and sunny with night frosts; springlike in the daytime?
Extensive fog? A cold easterly drift keeping daytime temperatures
down? Who'd be a forecaster eh? Still. It's my view that high
pressure will be in charge of our weather in 10 days.

------------------------------------
Looks pretty "nailed on" this one.

Ha! I wish that were the case 9 days out when you wrote this! ECM 12z
wouldn't agree this morning and introduces a strong Atlantic flow at 8
days out!

And now with today's 0Z it's reverted ti the previous day's 0Z. I guess
one needs to look at the ensemble to get a better idea of whether a
particular run is an outlier or not, but that's hard to do with the ECM.
(Much easier with the GFS.)
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

On Tuesday, February 3, 2015 at 10:38:53 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Dawlish writes
On Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 10:39:13 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 01/02/2015 19:41, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreements and consistency from last night t this evening
for me to forecast with at least 80% confidence. It's the location
of the high which will be crucial to an area's actual weather,
however, and that's by no means certain. I can say this much:

"On 11th Feb, at T+240, the UK will be under the influence of high
pressure and Atlantic weather systems will be blocked and kept at
bay from most of the UK. The weather will be dry in most areas and
be mainly light. As for temperatures, it depends on where the high
sits and whether cloud cover is extensive and that is just not
possible to determine at this distance, though NW Scotland's weather
may have more of an Atlantic influence. Where clouds clear, fog and
frost may form, but anticyclonic gloom under thick stratus may well be pervasive."

Dry and sunny with night frosts; springlike in the daytime?
Extensive fog? A cold easterly drift keeping daytime temperatures
down? Who'd be a forecaster eh? Still. It's my view that high
pressure will be in charge of our weather in 10 days.

------------------------------------
Looks pretty "nailed on" this one.

Ha! I wish that were the case 9 days out when you wrote this! ECM 12z
wouldn't agree this morning and introduces a strong Atlantic flow at 8
days out!

And now with today's 0Z it's reverted ti the previous day's 0Z. I guess
one needs to look at the ensemble to get a better idea of whether a
particular run is an outlier or not, but that's hard to do with the ECM.
(Much easier with the GFS.)
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

Yes. I was playing by mentioning one model's change in one run.

To use the ensembles isn't really helpful with my forecast. The agreement and consistency I see at 10 days is effectively determined by the ensembles over several runs. I never worry about wobbles in Op runs along the way - once a forecast is issued, I'm in the hands of the outcome - but I've seen some quite amazing turnarounds, both for and against my forecast outcomes, over the years. I'd still keep with an 80%+ chance of outcome at 8 days, now..

On Tuesday, February 3, 2015 at 10:53:49 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, February 3, 2015 at 10:38:53 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Dawlish writes
On Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 10:39:13 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 01/02/2015 19:41, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreements and consistency from last night t this evening
for me to forecast with at least 80% confidence. It's the location
of the high which will be crucial to an area's actual weather,
however, and that's by no means certain. I can say this much:

"On 11th Feb, at T+240, the UK will be under the influence of high
pressure and Atlantic weather systems will be blocked and kept at
bay from most of the UK. The weather will be dry in most areas and
be mainly light. As for temperatures, it depends on where the high
sits and whether cloud cover is extensive and that is just not
possible to determine at this distance, though NW Scotland's weather
may have more of an Atlantic influence. Where clouds clear, fog and
frost may form, but anticyclonic gloom under thick stratus may well be pervasive."

Dry and sunny with night frosts; springlike in the daytime?
Extensive fog? A cold easterly drift keeping daytime temperatures
down? Who'd be a forecaster eh? Still. It's my view that high
pressure will be in charge of our weather in 10 days.

------------------------------------
Looks pretty "nailed on" this one.

Ha! I wish that were the case 9 days out when you wrote this! ECM 12z
wouldn't agree this morning and introduces a strong Atlantic flow at 8
days out!

And now with today's 0Z it's reverted ti the previous day's 0Z. I guess
one needs to look at the ensemble to get a better idea of whether a
particular run is an outlier or not, but that's hard to do with the ECM..
(Much easier with the GFS.)
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

Yes. I was playing by mentioning one model's change in one run.

To use the ensembles isn't really helpful with my forecast. The agreement and consistency I see at 10 days is effectively determined by the ensembles over several runs. I never worry about wobbles in Op runs along the way - once a forecast is issued, I'm in the hands of the outcome - but I've seen some quite amazing turnarounds, both for and against my forecast outcomes, over the years. I'd still keep with an 80%+ chance of outcome at 8 days, now.

No great worries about this forecast - now 5 days out. High pressure dimly in charge. Models beginning to show some different possibilities for the 14th, however.

On Friday, February 6, 2015 at 1:07:01 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, February 3, 2015 at 10:53:49 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Tuesday, February 3, 2015 at 10:38:53 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Dawlish writes
On Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 10:39:13 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
On 01/02/2015 19:41, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreements and consistency from last night t this evening
for me to forecast with at least 80% confidence. It's the location
of the high which will be crucial to an area's actual weather,
however, and that's by no means certain. I can say this much:

"On 11th Feb, at T+240, the UK will be under the influence of high
pressure and Atlantic weather systems will be blocked and kept at
bay from most of the UK. The weather will be dry in most areas and
be mainly light. As for temperatures, it depends on where the high
sits and whether cloud cover is extensive and that is just not
possible to determine at this distance, though NW Scotland's weather
may have more of an Atlantic influence. Where clouds clear, fog and
frost may form, but anticyclonic gloom under thick stratus may well be pervasive."

Dry and sunny with night frosts; springlike in the daytime?
Extensive fog? A cold easterly drift keeping daytime temperatures
down? Who'd be a forecaster eh? Still. It's my view that high
pressure will be in charge of our weather in 10 days.

------------------------------------
Looks pretty "nailed on" this one.

Ha! I wish that were the case 9 days out when you wrote this! ECM 12z
wouldn't agree this morning and introduces a strong Atlantic flow at 8
days out!

And now with today's 0Z it's reverted ti the previous day's 0Z. I guess
one needs to look at the ensemble to get a better idea of whether a
particular run is an outlier or not, but that's hard to do with the ECM.
(Much easier with the GFS.)
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

Yes. I was playing by mentioning one model's change in one run.

To use the ensembles isn't really helpful with my forecast. The agreement and consistency I see at 10 days is effectively determined by the ensembles over several runs. I never worry about wobbles in Op runs along the way - once a forecast is issued, I'm in the hands of the outcome - but I've seen some quite amazing turnarounds, both for and against my forecast outcomes, over the years. I'd still keep with an 80%+ chance of outcome at 8 days, now.

No great worries about this forecast - now 5 days out. High pressure *dimly* in charge. Models beginning to show some different possibilities for the 14th, however.

Are you forecasting anticyclonic gloom?

Col

In message ,
writes
On Friday, February 6, 2015 at 1:07:01 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

No great worries about this forecast - now 5 days out. High pressure
*dimly* in charge. Models beginning to show some different
possibilities for the 14th, however.

Are you forecasting anticyclonic gloom?

The 12Z ECM operational run has a big surprise. Just six days out it
shows a low approaching the country, and then crossing it over the
following two days. High pressure briefly returns at nine days, but at
ten days it looks as if the Atlantic is about to reassert itself. But
there seems to be no support whatsoever from any of the other models,
which seem to continue keeping high pressure in charge from here to
eternity. I wonder what the mean pressure chart of the ECM ensemble will
indicate? That isn't available just yet.

Six days from now would be the 12th, so even should the ECM operational
run prove right Dawlish's forecast for the 11th would still be correct -
just - as would be his suggestion that things might change by the 14th.
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

On Sunday, February 1, 2015 at 7:41:32 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreements and consistency from last night t this evening for me to forecast with at least 80% confidence. It's the location of the high which will be crucial to an area's actual weather, however, and that's by no means certain. I can say this much:

"On 11th Feb, at T+240, the UK will be under the influence of high pressure and Atlantic weather systems will be blocked and kept at bay from most of the UK. The weather will be dry in most areas and winds will be mainly light. As for temperatures, it depends on where the high sits and whether cloud cover is extensive and that is just not possible to determine at this distance, though NW Scotland's weather may have more of an Atlantic influence.. Where clouds clear, fog and frost may form, but anticyclonic gloom under thick stratus may well be pervasive."

Dry and sunny with night frosts; springlike in the daytime? Extensive fog? A cold easterly drift keeping daytime temperatures down? Who'd be a forecaster eh? Still. It's my view that high pressure will be in charge of our weather in 10 days.

This forecast was correct at 10 days out.

However, it is now highly likely that we will have a brief interlude of lower pressure, before high pressure builds again, as John rightly identified from the models back on the 6th. This came in under my 10-day radar and was not picked up on the models on the 4th, when I issued my forecast for Valentine's Day. Thus my forecast, of high pressure on the 14th, is unlikely now to achieve outcome.