**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of the UK atT+240, on 8th March**
 

**Excellent agreement tonight for a SW flow around the northern limb of a high pressure and wonderful springlike weather for many at T+240. The only area which may well not benefit from this dry and mild weather is the NW of Scotland. **

Crossed fingers for this one. Wouldn't it be perfick!

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of the UK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

In message ,
Dawlish writes
**Excellent agreement tonight for a SW flow around the northern limb of
a high pressure and wonderful springlike weather for many at T+240. The
only area which may well not benefit from this dry and mild weather is
the NW of Scotland. **

Crossed fingers for this one. Wouldn't it be perfick!

This morning's ECM has reverted to what's been it's preferred solution
in recent runs, of what looks like a distinctly chilly north-easterly
over the south-east (though not quite as cold or over as large an area
as in some recent runs).
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Friday, February 27, 2015 at 10:53:21 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Dawlish writes
**Excellent agreement tonight for a SW flow around the northern limb of
a high pressure and wonderful springlike weather for many at T+240. The
only area which may well not benefit from this dry and mild weather is
the NW of Scotland. **

Crossed fingers for this one. Wouldn't it be perfick!

This morning's ECM has reverted to what's been it's preferred solution
in recent runs, of what looks like a distinctly chilly north-easterly
over the south-east (though not quite as cold or over as large an area
as in some recent runs).
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

Models perhaps swinging back to the 'very mild' output of 2 days ago. 12z gfs showing 16C in the SW! Peachy! Hope it achieves outcome. 00z ECM very mild too.

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of the UK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

In message ,
Dawlish writes
On Friday, February 27, 2015 at 10:53:21 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Dawlish writes
**Excellent agreement tonight for a SW flow around the northern limb of
a high pressure and wonderful springlike weather for many at T+240. The
only area which may well not benefit from this dry and mild weather is
the NW of Scotland. **

Crossed fingers for this one. Wouldn't it be perfick!

This morning's ECM has reverted to what's been it's preferred solution
in recent runs, of what looks like a distinctly chilly north-easterly
over the south-east (though not quite as cold or over as large an area
as in some recent runs).

Models perhaps swinging back to the 'very mild' output of 2 days ago.
12z gfs showing 16C in the SW! Peachy! Hope it achieves outcome. 00z
ECM very mild too.

Yes, yesterday's 12Z ECM was also mild. Looks like yesterday's 0Z ECM
might have been the last cold run for quite a while.
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Saturday, February 28, 2015 at 6:53:15 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Dawlish writes
On Friday, February 27, 2015 at 10:53:21 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Dawlish writes
**Excellent agreement tonight for a SW flow around the northern limb of
a high pressure and wonderful springlike weather for many at T+240. The
only area which may well not benefit from this dry and mild weather is
the NW of Scotland. **

Crossed fingers for this one. Wouldn't it be perfick!

This morning's ECM has reverted to what's been it's preferred solution
in recent runs, of what looks like a distinctly chilly north-easterly
over the south-east (though not quite as cold or over as large an area
as in some recent runs).

Models perhaps swinging back to the 'very mild' output of 2 days ago.
12z gfs showing 16C in the SW! Peachy! Hope it achieves outcome. 00z
ECM very mild too.

Yes, yesterday's 12Z ECM was also mild. Looks like yesterday's 0Z ECM
might have been the last cold run for quite a while.
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

Wish it was nailed on at 8 days mind........*))

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Saturday, February 28, 2015 at 8:17:59 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Saturday, February 28, 2015 at 6:53:15 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Dawlish writes
On Friday, February 27, 2015 at 10:53:21 AM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message ,
Dawlish writes
**Excellent agreement tonight for a SW flow around the northern limb of
a high pressure and wonderful springlike weather for many at T+240. The
only area which may well not benefit from this dry and mild weather is
the NW of Scotland. **

Crossed fingers for this one. Wouldn't it be perfick!

This morning's ECM has reverted to what's been it's preferred solution
in recent runs, of what looks like a distinctly chilly north-easterly
over the south-east (though not quite as cold or over as large an area
as in some recent runs).

Models perhaps swinging back to the 'very mild' output of 2 days ago.
12z gfs showing 16C in the SW! Peachy! Hope it achieves outcome. 00z
ECM very mild too.

Yes, yesterday's 12Z ECM was also mild. Looks like yesterday's 0Z ECM
might have been the last cold run for quite a while.
--
I'm not paid to implement the recognition of irony.
(Taken, with the author's permission, from a LiveJournal post)

Wish it was nailed on at 8 days mind........*))

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

I do hope it stays. It'll help to start to ease away the memory of winter.

PS Bet some lowland areas see snow (again, for some; not for all - none lay here, though I did see some flakes in the rain, twice!) before the summer!

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts.. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February..

Col

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:54:03 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

Little doubt now that the building NE of the Azores high will produce mild and properly springlike weather this weekend. Really looking forward to it to the point, where I'll feel put out if I don't get it!

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 3:24:00 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:54:03 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

Little doubt now that the building NE of the Azores high will produce mild and properly springlike weather this weekend. Really looking forward to it to the point, where I'll feel put out if I don't get it!

I certainly hope so.
There were near-blizzard like conditions here this morning, just another day or so of cold,windy weather then something genuinely 'springlike'.

Col

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Monday, 2 March 2015 15:24:00 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:54:03 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

Little doubt now that the building NE of the Azores high will produce mild and properly springlike weather this weekend. Really looking forward to it to the point, where I'll feel put out if I don't get it!

You dun 'arf talk some useless ****

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 5:48:28 PM UTC, wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 3:24:00 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:54:03 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

Little doubt now that the building NE of the Azores high will produce mild and properly springlike weather this weekend. Really looking forward to it to the point, where I'll feel put out if I don't get it!

I certainly hope so.
There were near-blizzard like conditions here this morning, just another day or so of cold,windy weather then something genuinely 'springlike'.

Col

And then, yesterday, 6 days in, this forecast began to slowly implode. The high pressure is now showing - on all models - slipping away SE, allowing a front to bring rain to many areas on Sunday!

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 8:30:29 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 5:48:28 PM UTC, wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 3:24:00 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:54:03 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

Little doubt now that the building NE of the Azores high will produce mild and properly springlike weather this weekend. Really looking forward to it to the point, where I'll feel put out if I don't get it!

I certainly hope so.
There were near-blizzard like conditions here this morning, just another day or so of cold,windy weather then something genuinely 'springlike'.

Col

And then, yesterday, 6 days in, this forecast began to slowly implode. The high pressure is now showing - on all models - slipping away SE, allowing a front to bring rain to many areas on Sunday!

A forecast which the models were showing would be accurate right to only T+120, then between then and T+96, the models began showing the high slipping away SE. Today we have the introduction of cloud and rain on a cold front, instead of the sunny and warm weather I was rather hopng for.

An odd and interesting development throughout the week, but the forecast is clearly wrong. It does highlight the difficulties of forecasting at this distance.

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 7:15:20 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 8:30:29 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 5:48:28 PM UTC, wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 3:24:00 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:54:03 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

Little doubt now that the building NE of the Azores high will produce mild and properly springlike weather this weekend. Really looking forward to it to the point, where I'll feel put out if I don't get it!

I certainly hope so.
There were near-blizzard like conditions here this morning, just another day or so of cold,windy weather then something genuinely 'springlike'.

Col

And then, yesterday, 6 days in, this forecast began to slowly implode. The high pressure is now showing - on all models - slipping away SE, allowing a front to bring rain to many areas on Sunday!

A forecast which the models were showing would be accurate right to only T+120, then between then and T+96, the models began showing the high slipping away SE. Today we have the introduction of cloud and rain on a cold front, instead of the sunny and warm weather I was rather hopng for.

An odd and interesting development throughout the week, but the forecast is clearly wrong. It does highlight the difficulties of forecasting at this distance.

It was disappointing that the predicted springlike conditions got downgraded like they did but the one consolation is that the one good day most of us got landed at the weekend. After a rather cloudy start yesterday was really quite glorious with sun feeling genuinely warm.
Light rain & drizzle now. Ah well....

Col

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 7:26:54 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 7:15:20 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 8:30:29 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 5:48:28 PM UTC, wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 3:24:00 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:54:03 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome.. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

Little doubt now that the building NE of the Azores high will produce mild and properly springlike weather this weekend. Really looking forward to it to the point, where I'll feel put out if I don't get it!

I certainly hope so.
There were near-blizzard like conditions here this morning, just another day or so of cold,windy weather then something genuinely 'springlike'..

Col

And then, yesterday, 6 days in, this forecast began to slowly implode.. The high pressure is now showing - on all models - slipping away SE, allowing a front to bring rain to many areas on Sunday!

A forecast which the models were showing would be accurate right to only T+120, then between then and T+96, the models began showing the high slipping away SE. Today we have the introduction of cloud and rain on a cold front, instead of the sunny and warm weather I was rather hopng for.

An odd and interesting development throughout the week, but the forecast is clearly wrong. It does highlight the difficulties of forecasting at this distance.

It was disappointing that the predicted springlike conditions got downgraded like they did but the one consolation is that the one good day most of us got landed at the weekend. After a rather cloudy start yesterday was really quite glorious with sun feeling genuinely warm.
Light rain & drizzle now. Ah well....

Col

Yup. Ah well!

Just driven back from Plymouth where we had rain. Rain too, as we passed south of Dartmoor and over the Haldon Hills, but dry in Dawlish and the sun is just coming out. *)) 13C too. So much better down here on the coastal lowlands to the east of the high ground. A different climate.

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 2:22:01 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 7:26:54 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 7:15:20 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 8:30:29 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 5:48:28 PM UTC, wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 3:24:00 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:54:03 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

Little doubt now that the building NE of the Azores high will produce mild and properly springlike weather this weekend. Really looking forward to it to the point, where I'll feel put out if I don't get it!

I certainly hope so.
There were near-blizzard like conditions here this morning, just another day or so of cold,windy weather then something genuinely 'springlike'.

Col

And then, yesterday, 6 days in, this forecast began to slowly implode. The high pressure is now showing - on all models - slipping away SE, allowing a front to bring rain to many areas on Sunday!

A forecast which the models were showing would be accurate right to only T+120, then between then and T+96, the models began showing the high slipping away SE. Today we have the introduction of cloud and rain on a cold front, instead of the sunny and warm weather I was rather hopng for.

An odd and interesting development throughout the week, but the forecast is clearly wrong. It does highlight the difficulties of forecasting at this distance.

It was disappointing that the predicted springlike conditions got downgraded like they did but the one consolation is that the one good day most of us got landed at the weekend. After a rather cloudy start yesterday was really quite glorious with sun feeling genuinely warm.
Light rain & drizzle now. Ah well....

Col

Yup. Ah well!

Just driven back from Plymouth where we had rain. Rain too, as we passed south of Dartmoor and over the Haldon Hills, but dry in Dawlish and the sun is just coming out. *)) 13C too. So much better down here on the coastal lowlands to the east of the high ground. A different climate.

Cold front cleared here and now well broken cloud, though chilly at 6.3°C.
Some good news though, my first daffodil is flowering, I don't keep formal records of this but I think this is pretty early.

Col

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of theUK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 3:12:47 PM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 2:22:01 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 7:26:54 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 8, 2015 at 7:15:20 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Thursday, March 5, 2015 at 8:30:29 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 5:48:28 PM UTC, wrote:
On Monday, March 2, 2015 at 3:24:00 PM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:54:03 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:35:38 AM UTC, wrote:
On Sunday, March 1, 2015 at 9:23:53 AM UTC, Dawlish wrote:

Looking very mild and rather excellent next weekend on the current charts. The first taste of spring for many, if they achieve outcome. How mild? A possibility of the UK date record of 15.9C being threatened if the 00z gfs chart is the one we see in a week's time. I'm not saying that's what will happen, but the likelihood of having dry and warmer than average weather on March 8th sits at higher than 80% ATM and IMO.

The date record for 8th March is 21.1°C.
http://www.torro.org.uk/site/hightempsyear.php

Have you perhaps looked at the wrong month, it is 15.9°C for 8th February.

Col

Well, it would have potentially threatened the date record, if the date record had been 15.9C, but as Col correctly points out, the record is in fact 21.1C. ☺�☺� Sorry! note to self; read the actual data properly!!!)

Still looking peachy, ATM!

Little doubt now that the building NE of the Azores high will produce mild and properly springlike weather this weekend. Really looking forward to it to the point, where I'll feel put out if I don't get it!

I certainly hope so.
There were near-blizzard like conditions here this morning, just another day or so of cold,windy weather then something genuinely 'springlike'.

Col

And then, yesterday, 6 days in, this forecast began to slowly implode. The high pressure is now showing - on all models - slipping away SE, allowing a front to bring rain to many areas on Sunday!

A forecast which the models were showing would be accurate right to only T+120, then between then and T+96, the models began showing the high slipping away SE. Today we have the introduction of cloud and rain on a cold front, instead of the sunny and warm weather I was rather hopng for.

An odd and interesting development throughout the week, but the forecast is clearly wrong. It does highlight the difficulties of forecasting at this distance.

It was disappointing that the predicted springlike conditions got downgraded like they did but the one consolation is that the one good day most of us got landed at the weekend. After a rather cloudy start yesterday was really quite glorious with sun feeling genuinely warm.
Light rain & drizzle now. Ah well....

Col

Yup. Ah well!

Just driven back from Plymouth where we had rain. Rain too, as we passed south of Dartmoor and over the Haldon Hills, but dry in Dawlish and the sun is just coming out. *)) 13C too. So much better down here on the coastal lowlands to the east of the high ground. A different climate.

Cold front cleared here and now well broken cloud, though chilly at 6.3°C.
Some good news though, my first daffodil is flowering, I don't keep formal records of this but I think this is pretty early.

Col

My first daffodil flowered before Christmas!! The garden is now full of them.

**Forecast: dry and warmer than average weather for much of the UK at T+240, on 8th March**
 

My first daffodil flowered before Christmas!! The garden is now full of
them.

Lucky you, mine are not even close:)
Gorgeous one day wonder yesterday (15c) back to wet and cold today but it
did turn brighter by mid afternoon.

Graham (Weston Coyney)