Currently tracking well below the average for the time of year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...aly.arctic.png

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

It's always interesting to follow sea ice through the year, but nothing really counts, except what's happened over time with the summer minimum and that is clearly on a downward trend which may well lead to next to no summer sea ice at all.

I was going to say that I didn't particularly agree with that, but having downloaded the data I can see that you are quite correct, and Arctic sea ice has hit a record low for the 28th of February. Having said that maximum extent can run well into March (20th) as it did last year. Antarctic sea ice is at almost the same level as it was last year, making it 4th highest since records began in 1979 (for the 28th of February).

http://wp.me/p3yVic-17u

Looks like it will take a major reversal of the present downward trend for
the 2015 maximum now to get back close even to the -2SD envelope. Still
possible of course and 2-3 weeks to go to be sure, but looking unlikely.
Nothing more than a curiosity for now (and no suggestions otherwise).

On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 9:12:30 AM UTC, JohnD wrote:
Looks like it will take a major reversal of the present downward trend for
the 2015 maximum now to get back close even to the -2SD envelope. Still
possible of course and 2-3 weeks to go to be sure, but looking unlikely.
Nothing more than a curiosity for now (and no suggestions otherwise).

Agreed - on all points!

On Sunday, 1 March 2015 11:44:50 UTC+1, Dawlish wrote:
Currently tracking well below the average for the time of year.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...aly.arctic.png

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

It's always interesting to follow sea ice through the year, but nothing really counts, except what's happened over time with the summer minimum and that is clearly on a downward trend which may well lead to next to no summer sea ice at all.

Ah, the old 'cut off the date pre 1979' trick. Try looking at the complete picture Garvey.

On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 9:12:30 AM UTC, JohnD wrote:
Looks like it will take a major reversal of the present downward trend for
the 2015 maximum now to get back close even to the -2SD envelope. Still
possible of course and 2-3 weeks to go to be sure, but looking unlikely.
Nothing more than a curiosity for now (and no suggestions otherwise).

A record low maximum is hardly a mere curiosity. See:
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f...75b5ce0970b-pi

At the Royal Society meeting last November it was reported that the September Arctic sea ice minimum was related to the extent of the melt ponds in Spring. Therefore the albedo early in the year controls the ice extent in the autumn. This is a positive feedback process with low albedo early in the season causing even lower albedo later.

We could well see a catastrophic melt this summer.

On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 12:44:58 PM UTC, Alastair wrote:
On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 9:12:30 AM UTC, JohnD wrote:
Looks like it will take a major reversal of the present downward trend for
the 2015 maximum now to get back close even to the -2SD envelope. Still
possible of course and 2-3 weeks to go to be sure, but looking unlikely..
Nothing more than a curiosity for now (and no suggestions otherwise).

A record low maximum is hardly a mere curiosity. See:
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f...75b5ce0970b-pi

At the Royal Society meeting last November it was reported that the September Arctic sea ice minimum was related to the extent of the melt ponds in Spring. Therefore the albedo early in the year controls the ice extent in the autumn. This is a positive feedback process with low albedo early in the season causing even lower albedo later.

We could well see a catastrophic melt this summer.

Here is another chart which shows how dire the situation is:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ch...sea-ice-graph/

It has never been this low and recovered. Let's hope I am wrong.

On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 05:56:28 -0700 (PDT)
Alastair wrote:

On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 12:44:58 PM UTC, Alastair wrote:
On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 9:12:30 AM UTC, JohnD wrote:
Looks like it will take a major reversal of the present downward
trend for the 2015 maximum now to get back close even to the -2SD
envelope. Still possible of course and 2-3 weeks to go to be
sure, but looking unlikely. Nothing more than a curiosity for now
(and no suggestions otherwise).

A record low maximum is hardly a mere curiosity. See:
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f...75b5ce0970b-pi

At the Royal Society meeting last November it was reported that the
September Arctic sea ice minimum was related to the extent of the
melt ponds in Spring. Therefore the albedo early in the year
controls the ice extent in the autumn. This is a positive feedback
process with low albedo early in the season causing even lower
albedo later.

We could well see a catastrophic melt this summer.

Here is another chart which shows how dire the situation is:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ch...sea-ice-graph/

It has never been this low and recovered. Let's hope I am wrong.

One thing I see about this season is that there is little ice along the
Greenland coast. This hints at there having been less outflow of old ice
from the Arctic this winter. This could mean that this summer may not be
a record one.

I suspect that there will be a rapid reduction at first. Although there
doesn't seem to be an excess of ice anywhere, the area that is nearest
to normal is the eastern seaboard of N America and this, being at low
latitude, should go early. Once that's cleared, reduction rate will
probably slow down a lot as getting rid of the Arctic ice may be slow
going.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 3:55:02 PM UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Wed, 11 Mar 2015 05:56:28 -0700 (PDT)
Alastair wrote:

On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 12:44:58 PM UTC, Alastair wrote:
On Wednesday, March 11, 2015 at 9:12:30 AM UTC, JohnD wrote:
Looks like it will take a major reversal of the present downward
trend for the 2015 maximum now to get back close even to the -2SD
envelope. Still possible of course and 2-3 weeks to go to be
sure, but looking unlikely. Nothing more than a curiosity for now
(and no suggestions otherwise).

A record low maximum is hardly a mere curiosity. See:
http://neven1.typepad.com/.a/6a0133f...75b5ce0970b-pi

At the Royal Society meeting last November it was reported that the
September Arctic sea ice minimum was related to the extent of the
melt ponds in Spring. Therefore the albedo early in the year
controls the ice extent in the autumn. This is a positive feedback
process with low albedo early in the season causing even lower
albedo later.

We could well see a catastrophic melt this summer.

Here is another chart which shows how dire the situation is:
http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/ch...sea-ice-graph/

It has never been this low and recovered. Let's hope I am wrong.

One thing I see about this season is that there is little ice along the
Greenland coast. This hints at there having been less outflow of old ice
from the Arctic this winter. This could mean that this summer may not be
a record one.

I suspect that there will be a rapid reduction at first. Although there
doesn't seem to be an excess of ice anywhere, the area that is nearest
to normal is the eastern seaboard of N America and this, being at low
latitude, should go early. Once that's cleared, reduction rate will
probably slow down a lot as getting rid of the Arctic ice may be slow
going.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

As always, the rate of melt will depend on synoptics during the melt season. A stormy August would mean a new record would be unlikely. A very settled melt season with high pressure dominant and a new record would be extremely likely.

The thing to note, is that we are all speculating about the chances of a record low. No mention of possible recovery; just how likely is a record low.