12 Sep 2015: Met Office model missing showers and convective cloud
 

I got the distinct impression from looking at the graphics in the forecast on the BBC Breakfast program that there would be no showers behind the cold front clearance this morning across the bulk of southern England and Wales, in fact for this afternoon the graphics showed very little in the way of cloud as far as I could see. Despite this forecast there have been a couple of sharp showers in mid-Devon, and currently there's a band of showers stretching across N Devon, Somerset along the M5 towards London on the weather radar. Not a great forecast, especially if you were expecting a dry day to get some pond painting done.

12 Sep 2015: Met Office model missing showers and convective cloud
 

On Saturday, 12 September 2015 11:58:53 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I got the distinct impression from looking at the graphics in the forecast on the BBC Breakfast program that there would be no showers behind the cold front clearance this morning across the bulk of southern England and Wales, in fact for this afternoon the graphics showed very little in the way of cloud as far as I could see. Despite this forecast there have been a couple of sharp showers in mid-Devon, and currently there's a band of showers stretching across N Devon, Somerset along the M5 towards London on the weather radar. Not a great forecast, especially if you were expecting a dry day to get some pond painting done.

I forgot to add that further north over NW England there is some really heavy rain at the moment, but that might be the bent back occlusion.

12 Sep 2015: Met Office model missing showers and convective cloud
 

On Saturday, 12 September 2015 11:58:53 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I got the distinct impression from looking at the graphics in the forecast on the BBC Breakfast program that there would be no showers behind the cold front clearance this morning across the bulk of southern England and Wales, in fact for this afternoon the graphics showed very little in the way of cloud as far as I could see. Despite this forecast there have been a couple of sharp showers in mid-Devon, and currently there's a band of showers stretching across N Devon, Somerset along the M5 towards London on the weather radar. Not a great forecast, especially if you were expecting a dry day to get some pond painting done.

You could paint my house instead because it's been dry here all day. There was one slightly threatening Cb but it produced nothing though it may have done a few miles to the north.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

12 Sep 2015: Met Office model missing showers and convective cloud
 

On Sunday, 13 September 2015 04:55:33 UTC+1, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Saturday, 12 September 2015 11:58:53 UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I got the distinct impression from looking at the graphics in the forecast on the BBC Breakfast program that there would be no showers behind the cold front clearance this morning across the bulk of southern England and Wales, in fact for this afternoon the graphics showed very little in the way of cloud as far as I could see. Despite this forecast there have been a couple of sharp showers in mid-Devon, and currently there's a band of showers stretching across N Devon, Somerset along the M5 towards London on the weather radar. Not a great forecast, especially if you were expecting a dry day to get some pond painting done.

You could paint my house instead because it's been dry here all day. There was one slightly threatening Cb but it produced nothing though it may have done a few miles to the north.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.
I did it get it done in the end, the afternoon brightened up. We got the second coat on the pond and hopefully it won't leak😊

12 Sep 2015: Met Office model missing showers and convective cloud
 

On Saturday, September 12, 2015 at 11:58:53 AM UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
I got the distinct impression from looking at the graphics in the forecast on the BBC Breakfast program that there would be no showers behind the cold front clearance this morning across the bulk of southern England and Wales, in fact for this afternoon the graphics showed very little in the way of cloud as far as I could see. Despite this forecast there have been a couple of sharp showers in mid-Devon, and currently there's a band of showers stretching across N Devon, Somerset along the M5 towards London on the weather radar. Not a great forecast, especially if you were expecting a dry day to get some pond painting done.


Very heavy shower (very large drops - some hail) in Penzance 14:00 yesterday. Only lasted 5 or 6 minutes and dropped 3.1mm. It was far from the only one, some intense slow moving showers & large Cb just off the coast. Rainfall risk at the the time was 5%. There were showers visible virtually throughout the afternoon. The air was clearly so unstable I was surprised the rainfall risk wasn't amended up.

Yesterday evening the rain risk for last night was 70%-80% over several hours, and still 50% or 60% for about now. A mainly dry night & currently broken cloud, dry, windy sunny spells. Total rainfall for the 24 hours to 09:00 today 3.5mm

Graham
Penzance