If anything in the last month the negative anomalies in the North Atlantic (40-60N and 10-40W) have lowered a little more when compared with last month's values using this NCOF data that I have pieced together. There are pockets of -3°C anomalies rather than the -2°C of last month. The Davis Strait has also cooled with respect to last month too, but there are still some high SST anomalies across the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The Norwegian sea has positive anomalies, but not quite as warm as August. I don't what could be causing the isolated but intense cold anomaly of Brittany but it's warmed out a little since last month.

For charts see:

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/0...a-little-more/

"xmetman" wrote in message
...
If anything in the last month the negative anomalies in the North Atlantic
(40-60N and 10-40W) have lowered a little more when compared with last
month's values using this NCOF data that I have pieced together. There are
pockets of -3°C anomalies rather than the -2°C of last month. The Davis
Strait has also cooled with respect to last month too, but there are still
some high SST anomalies across the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The
Norwegian sea has positive anomalies, but not quite as warm as August. I
don't what could be causing the isolated but intense cold anomaly of
Brittany but it's warmed out a little since last month.

For charts see:

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/0...a-little-more/
====================

If this Atlantic anomaly persists or even intensifies then westerlies would
be colder than normal this winter. This would mean more snowfall at
altitude.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Monday, September 21, 2015 at 3:21:14 PM UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
If anything in the last month the negative anomalies in the North Atlantic (40-60N and 10-40W) have lowered a little more when compared with last month's values using this NCOF data that I have pieced together. There are pockets of -3°C anomalies rather than the -2°C of last month. The Davis Strait has also cooled with respect to last month too, but there are still some high SST anomalies across the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The Norwegian sea has positive anomalies, but not quite as warm as August. I don't what could be causing the isolated but intense cold anomaly of Brittany but it's warmed out a little since last month.

For charts see:

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/0...a-little-more/

I prefer this site, http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/o...vy-anom-bb.gif , which if anything shows a smaller 'cool' area than of late. I think the overwhelming impressions is just how much of the northern Oceans have SSTs above normal.

Your site seems to exagerate the cool pool off Brittany. Looking at actual SSTs there's nothing that looks particularly abnormal. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

The cool pool off Britany ist formed during the offshore spell, 6th-11th Sept. During a NW you get a cool pool form off S-SE Ireland, and easterly cool pool off Land's End, all for the obvious reason. Anyone that regularly goes into the sea knows how cold it can get just after 2 or 3 days of offshore winds, it can then take a while to recover.

The south coast is generally 16-17C currently http://www.channelcoast.org/data_man...e_data/charts/ , normal for late September, after quite a period of sub normal temperatures. Felt very pleasant at Sennen recently.

Graham
Penzance

On Monday, September 21, 2015 at 4:09:16 PM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Monday, September 21, 2015 at 3:21:14 PM UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
If anything in the last month the negative anomalies in the North Atlantic (40-60N and 10-40W) have lowered a little more when compared with last month's values using this NCOF data that I have pieced together. There are pockets of -3°C anomalies rather than the -2°C of last month. The Davis Strait has also cooled with respect to last month too, but there are still some high SST anomalies across the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The Norwegian sea has positive anomalies, but not quite as warm as August. I don't what could be causing the isolated but intense cold anomaly of Brittany but it's warmed out a little since last month.

For charts see:

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/0...a-little-more/

I prefer this site, http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/o...y-anom-bb..gif , which if anything shows a smaller 'cool' area than of late. I think the overwhelming impressions is just how much of the northern Oceans have SSTs above normal.

Your site seems to exagerate the cool pool off Brittany. Looking at actual SSTs there's nothing that looks particularly abnormal. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

The cool pool off Britany ist formed during the offshore spell, 6th-11th Sept. During a NW you get a cool pool form off S-SE Ireland, and easterly cool pool off Land's End, all for the obvious reason. Anyone that regularly goes into the sea knows how cold it can get just after 2 or 3 days of offshore winds, it can then take a while to recover.

The south coast is generally 16-17C currently http://www.channelcoast.org/data_man...e_data/charts/ , normal for late September, after quite a period of sub normal temperatures. Felt very pleasant at Sennen recently.

Graham
Penzance

Oh, whilst on the subject of south Channel Coastal Buoys (which I am now, if not before), there is a lot of data available. E.g this should take you to the Porthleven overview http://www.channelcoast.org/data_man...rts/?chart=107
Now try clicking wave spectra. (Well I find it interesting!)

Clean long period wave yesterday (lower pic) not the choppy conditions predicted on the local BBC forecast.

Graham
Penzance
Graham
Penzance

On Monday, 21 September 2015 16:05:51 UTC+1, wrote:
"xmetman" wrote in message
...
If anything in the last month the negative anomalies in the North Atlantic
(40-60N and 10-40W) have lowered a little more when compared with last
month's values using this NCOF data that I have pieced together. There are
pockets of -3°C anomalies rather than the -2°C of last month. The Davis
Strait has also cooled with respect to last month too, but there are still
some high SST anomalies across the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The
Norwegian sea has positive anomalies, but not quite as warm as August. I
don't what could be causing the isolated but intense cold anomaly of
Brittany but it's warmed out a little since last month.

For charts see:

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/0...a-little-more/
====================

If this Atlantic anomaly persists or even intensifies then westerlies would
be colder than normal this winter. This would mean more snowfall at
altitude.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

I like the sound of that, but maybe 62 M isn't quite high enough...

On Monday, 21 September 2015 16:09:16 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Monday, September 21, 2015 at 3:21:14 PM UTC+1, xmetman wrote:
If anything in the last month the negative anomalies in the North Atlantic (40-60N and 10-40W) have lowered a little more when compared with last month's values using this NCOF data that I have pieced together. There are pockets of -3°C anomalies rather than the -2°C of last month. The Davis Strait has also cooled with respect to last month too, but there are still some high SST anomalies across the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The Norwegian sea has positive anomalies, but not quite as warm as August. I don't what could be causing the isolated but intense cold anomaly of Brittany but it's warmed out a little since last month.

For charts see:

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/0...a-little-more/

I prefer this site, http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/o...y-anom-bb..gif , which if anything shows a smaller 'cool' area than of late. I think the overwhelming impressions is just how much of the northern Oceans have SSTs above normal.

Your site seems to exagerate the cool pool off Brittany. Looking at actual SSTs there's nothing that looks particularly abnormal. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

The cool pool off Britany ist formed during the offshore spell, 6th-11th Sept. During a NW you get a cool pool form off S-SE Ireland, and easterly cool pool off Land's End, all for the obvious reason. Anyone that regularly goes into the sea knows how cold it can get just after 2 or 3 days of offshore winds, it can then take a while to recover.

The south coast is generally 16-17C currently http://www.channelcoast.org/data_man...e_data/charts/ , normal for late September, after quite a period of sub normal temperatures. Felt very pleasant at Sennen recently.

Graham
Penzance

Graham

The SST site that I use has much greater detail than the NCDC you link to. I found the link to it from Ant Veal's Great Weather site. The data originates from the Met Office but it looks like it's only updated monthly which is probably the right interval to look for changes, of course anomalies are only as good as the accuracy of both the SST and the long-term average they use to produce it. I can only imagine the extraordinary detail comes from satellite observations.

Bruce.

SNIP
Graham

The data originates from the Met Office but it looks like it's only updated monthly which is probably the right interval to look for changes, of course anomalies are only as good as the accuracy of both the SST and the long-term average they use to produce it. I can only imagine the extraordinary detail comes from satellite observations.

Bruce.

That's a good point about long term averages, I have some concerns over their accuracy.

Also it would be good to know exactly how the anomaly maps are arrived at. Is the one you use purely satellite, or does it also include surface measurements? Maybe the other Graham (P Davis) can shed some light on this. Whenever I see tightly packed SST isotherms, as off Brittany, I'm a bit wary. It reminds me of the tightly packed isobars you get on say XCWeather when they get an incorrect pressure reading, or the MetO rainfall actual/anomaly maps for west Cornwall when Scilly double recorded rainfall for a few months.

Maybe I'm just naturally suspicious!

Graham

On Monday, 21 September 2015 19:32:37 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
SNIP
Graham

The data originates from the Met Office but it looks like it's only updated monthly which is probably the right interval to look for changes, of course anomalies are only as good as the accuracy of both the SST and the long-term average they use to produce it. I can only imagine the extraordinary detail comes from satellite observations.

Bruce.

That's a good point about long term averages, I have some concerns over their accuracy.

Also it would be good to know exactly how the anomaly maps are arrived at.. Is the one you use purely satellite, or does it also include surface measurements? Maybe the other Graham (P Davis) can shed some light on this. Whenever I see tightly packed SST isotherms, as off Brittany, I'm a bit wary. It reminds me of the tightly packed isobars you get on say XCWeather when they get an incorrect pressure reading, or the MetO rainfall actual/anomaly maps for west Cornwall when Scilly double recorded rainfall for a few months.

Maybe I'm just naturally suspicious!

Graham

I use XCWeather a lot and it has many good points. But the algorithm used for drawing isobars has no "brain" whatever. You can get geostrophic wind speeds that are several times the speed of sound.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

"xmetman" wrote in message
...
On Monday, 21 September 2015 16:05:51 UTC+1,
wrote:
"xmetman" wrote in message
...
If anything in the last month the negative anomalies in the North Atlantic
(40-60N and 10-40W) have lowered a little more when compared with last
month's values using this NCOF data that I have pieced together. There are
pockets of -3°C anomalies rather than the -2°C of last month. The Davis
Strait has also cooled with respect to last month too, but there are still
some high SST anomalies across the Grand Banks of Newfoundland. The
Norwegian sea has positive anomalies, but not quite as warm as August. I
don't what could be causing the isolated but intense cold anomaly of
Brittany but it's warmed out a little since last month.

For charts see:

https://xmetman.wordpress.com/2015/0...a-little-more/
====================

If this Atlantic anomaly persists or even intensifies then westerlies
would
be colder than normal this winter. This would mean more snowfall at
altitude.

I like the sound of that, but maybe 62 M isn't quite high enough...
================

No that is too close to sea level down here. More like 250 metres. Last
winter was classed as mild but even so there were many days on Dartmoor with
snow lying above 500 metres. A colder flow will bring that snowline down,
perhaps closer to sea level up north.

Will
--
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...antage_Pro.htm
Will Hand (Haytor, Devon, 1017 feet asl)
---------------------------------------------

On Tuesday, September 22, 2015 at 9:31:15 AM UTC+1, wrote:
b No that is too close to sea level down here. More like 250 metres. Last
winter was classed as mild but even so there were many days on Dartmoor with
snow lying above 500 metres. A colder flow will bring that snowline down,
perhaps closer to sea level up north.


Might be interesting up here in such a scenario. Lying snow in a straight westerly showery airstream (as opposed to a NW)isn't all that common here but it does happen, especially in late winter when the sea is obviously colder.

We will see if this pattern of a colder Atlantic persists, it's been around for a while now I think, late spring/early summer?

Col