On Wednesday, 16 December 2015 13:55:27 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
"..The GFS model as we know has a tendency to over-develop LP systems
and if it does decrease in intensity in subsequent runs, it may promote
a more rapid pressure build over Norther Scandinavia than currently
projected."
Do we know? Is this feasible?

Often see stuff of this ilk quoted on weather forums but surely the
people at GFS, ECMF etc aren't stupid. If models consistently have a
tendency to predict something incorrectly surely they would just tweak
the algorithms a bit. I thought that was the whole point of a
mathematical model.

Dave

I was quite shocked when Will mentioned a while ago that the models DON'T consider climatology, for example Lamb Weather Types etc. One of Philip Eden's articles a while ago mentioned that if you are faced with a 50/50 situation while looking at a model you go with the 'average' of what happened before. I think that is where the skill of a professional forecaster comes in.

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