**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

Agreement and consistency for a change.

**At T+240, on 15th Jan 2015, the UK's weather will have a source to the north, or north-west of the UK, bringing snow showers, or longer periods of snow to the hills of the UK, especially in the north, but *perhaps* some lower level snow showers further south than Scotland. Colder everywhere in the daytime and at night, than at present, with some sharp frosts around this date.**

There you go. An 80% chance of a change by mid-Jan. Chances of some lowland snow showers further south, eh? Perhaps not in Dawlish 😀.

**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

On 05/01/2016 07:54, Dawlish wrote:
Agreement and consistency for a change.

**At T+240, on 15th Jan 2015, the UK's weather will have a source to the north, or north-west of the UK, bringing snow showers, or longer periods of snow to the hills of the UK, especially in the north, but *perhaps* some lower level snow showers further south than Scotland. Colder everywhere in the daytime and at night, than at present, with some sharp frosts around this date.**

There you go. An 80% chance of a change by mid-Jan. Chances of some lowland snow showers further south, eh? Perhaps not in Dawlish 😀.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the 4th January:-
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif (edit.as was)
Blimey , oh well, I suppose its best to get disappointed now instead of
bloody waiting for it.
Lawrence

There has for some time now been a bit of a trend towards a change
around that date. The GFS ensembles now show a majority trend for
something colder around the 14th on as does the latest ECM run. 10 days
is a long time but it could be the first little cold snap of the winter
for us soft southerners.
Dave

Anyway, though the GFS 12Z operational run may look unremarkable at
T+288, the GFS ensemble and the ECM operational run and ensemble look
much more encouraging for cold-weather lovers from about 8-9 days out.
John
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Well it's bound to happen after four of us have suggested it now :-)

Dave

**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

On 05/01/2016 12:05, Dave Cornwell wrote:

On the 4th January:-
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2881.gif (edit.as was)
Blimey , oh well, I suppose its best to get disappointed now instead of
bloody waiting for it.
Lawrence

There has for some time now been a bit of a trend towards a change
around that date. The GFS ensembles now show a majority trend for
something colder around the 14th on as does the latest ECM run. 10 days
is a long time but it could be the first little cold snap of the winter
for us soft southerners.
Dave

Anyway, though the GFS 12Z operational run may look unremarkable at
T+288, the GFS ensemble and the ECM operational run and ensemble look
much more encouraging for cold-weather lovers from about 8-9 days out.
John
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Well it's bound to happen after four of us have suggested it now :-)

Dave

I know we must not look too far ahead on the models but gfs is not
looking like anything long term is setting in, although a second
northerly follows at the end of the run. It maybe just a start of a
change that we will not get properly until February or later?
--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@SS9Weatherman

**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

**At T+240, on 15th Jan 2015, the UK's weather will have a source to the
north, or north-west of the UK, bringing snow showers, or longer periods of
snow to the hills of the UK, especially in the north, but *perhaps* some
lower level snow showers further south than Scotland. Colder everywhere in
the daytime and at night, than at present, with some sharp frosts around
this date.**
========================

Plenty of inappropriate comma bait included there I see;

**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

On 05/01/2016 07:54, Dawlish wrote:
Agreement and consistency for a change.

**At T+240, on 15th Jan 2015, the UK's weather will have a source to the north, or north-west of the UK, bringing snow showers, or longer periods of snow to the hills of the UK, especially in the north, but *perhaps* some lower level snow showers further south than Scotland. Colder everywhere in the daytime and at night, than at present, with some sharp frosts around this date.**

There you go. An 80% chance of a change by mid-Jan. Chances of some lowland snow showers further south, eh? Perhaps not in Dawlish 😀.

I'm surprised you have missed the opportunity over the last few weeks to
predict unrelenting mild & wet conditions. Surely you would have
considered the chances to have been 80% on many occasisons?

And now you stick your head abouve the parapet with a major type change!

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

On 05/01/2016 17:38, JohnD wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message
...

**At T+240, on 15th Jan 2015, the UK's weather will have a source to the
north, or north-west of the UK, bringing snow showers, or longer periods
of snow to the hills of the UK, especially in the north, but *perhaps*
some lower level snow showers further south than Scotland. Colder
everywhere in the daytime and at night, than at present, with some sharp
frosts around this date.**
========================

Plenty of inappropriate comma bait included there I see;
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Made me start hyper-ventilating and it wasn't me AF kicking in ;-)

**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

On Mon, 4 Jan 2016 23:54:22 -0800 (PST), Dawlish
wrote:

Agreement and consistency for a change.

**At T+240, on 15th Jan 2015, the UK's weather will have a source to the north, or north-west of the UK, bringing snow showers, or longer periods of snow to the hills of the UK, especially in the north, but *perhaps* some lower level snow showers further south than Scotland. Colder everywhere in the daytime and at night, than at present, with some sharp frosts around this date.**

There you go. An 80% chance of a change by mid-Jan. Chances of some lowland snow showers further south, eh? Perhaps not in Dawlish ?.

Thought I'd just mention that John Hammond mentioned this in the 9:55
forecast on BBC News 24 on Monday, i.e.:

Notably colder
Widespread Frost
Wintry Showers
Drier (and for some time too).

- with an interesting explanation involving a polar High. He said
tentative on Monday but tonight, firmed up on it. Always worth a
watch, is the 9:55 long range forecast.

--
Dave
Fareham

**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

On Tuesday, January 5, 2016 at 7:02:41 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 05/01/2016 07:54, Dawlish wrote:
Agreement and consistency for a change.

**At T+240, on 15th Jan 2015, the UK's weather will have a source to the north, or north-west of the UK, bringing snow showers, or longer periods of snow to the hills of the UK, especially in the north, but *perhaps* some lower level snow showers further south than Scotland. Colder everywhere in the daytime and at night, than at present, with some sharp frosts around this date.**

There you go. An 80% chance of a change by mid-Jan. Chances of some lowland snow showers further south, eh? Perhaps not in Dawlish 😀.

I'm surprised you have missed the opportunity over the last few weeks to
predict unrelenting mild & wet conditions. Surely you would have
considered the chances to have been 80% on many occasisons?

And now you stick your head abouve the parapet with a major type change!

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

I just couldn't be bothered, Col. I've said I was looking for a change. Many times in the past, I could have boosted my 80% average success, by forecasting on a daily basis, but I always leave it at least 3 days. It was so obvious a change was not coming (implied by me still looking for it and ignoring the suggested model change around the start of the New Year), that I just didn't think a forecast was needed. Like I said, I was looking for the change.

**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

I just couldn't be bothered, Col. I've said I was looking for a change.
Taking forecasting to a new level.


Many times in the past, I could have boosted my 80% average success, by forecasting on a daily basis, but I always leave it at least 3 days.
Or, in fact, reduced self claimed 80% success, you need to start thinking about maths as well as grammar. Anyway, you always leave at least 3 days between forecasts, which is true. Could you remind us how many there were in total in 2015?

It was so obvious a change was not coming (implied by me still looking for it and ignoring the suggested model change around the start of the New Year), that I just didn't think a forecast was needed. Like I said, I was looking for the change.
I didn't think a forecast was needed. Correct, nor is it now. Presumably all other forecasters will stop forecasting now, as we all know it's going to rain.

Such arrogance.

**Forecast Northerly component to the weather at T+240
 

On Wednesday, January 6, 2016 at 9:41:36 AM UTC, David Mitchell wrote:
I just couldn't be bothered, Col. I've said I was looking for a change.
Taking forecasting to a new level.


Many times in the past, I could have boosted my 80% average success, by forecasting on a daily basis, but I always leave it at least 3 days.
Or, in fact, reduced self claimed 80% success, you need to start thinking about maths as well as grammar. Anyway, you always leave at least 3 days between forecasts, which is true. Could you remind us how many there were in total in 2015?

It was so obvious a change was not coming (implied by me still looking for it and ignoring the suggested model change around the start of the New Year), that I just didn't think a forecast was needed. Like I said, I was looking for the change.
I didn't think a forecast was needed. Correct, nor is it now. Presumably all other forecasters will stop forecasting now, as we all know it's going to rain.

Such arrogance.

Your obsession is getting the better of you mitchell....... laughing