.... to discover its affect on the North Sea sea levels.
The particular path is from the Icelandic area coming south , close to
north of Scotland but passing west of it, and west of Ireland before
going NW, west or southwest, ie not over the UK. Preferably in the last
20 years.
Any ideas how to go about it, other than squandering bandwidth on
weterzentral.de

On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 14:52:42 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
... to discover its affect on the North Sea sea levels.
The particular path is from the Icelandic area coming south , close to
north of Scotland but passing west of it, and west of Ireland before
going NW, west or southwest, ie not over the UK. Preferably in the last
20 years.
Any ideas how to go about it, other than squandering bandwidth on
weterzentral.de

This might be a useful starting point.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks/

Richard

On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 14:52:42 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
... to discover its affect on the North Sea sea levels.
The particular path is from the Icelandic area coming south , close to
north of Scotland but passing west of it, and west of Ireland before
going NW, west or southwest, ie not over the UK. Preferably in the last
20 years.
Any ideas how to go about it, other than squandering bandwidth on
weterzentral.de

Mot sure about the track Low but I found the album
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bc_kPLYPTwI

On 12/01/2016 14:58, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 14:52:42 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
... to discover its affect on the North Sea sea levels.
The particular path is from the Icelandic area coming south , close to
north of Scotland but passing west of it, and west of Ireland before
going NW, west or southwest, ie not over the UK. Preferably in the last
20 years.
Any ideas how to go about it, other than squandering bandwidth on
weterzentral.de

This might be a useful starting point.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks/

Richard


Many thanks for that, what a useful resource. I've not found an example
in a winter quarter of the years I've chosen so far , but that is
probably associated with my conjecture.

Local marine flooding approx 100 years ago , on dates
27 oct 1909
26 dec 1912
05 Nov 1916
27 nov 1924
were more extreme than in the following decades to the present.
Looking at reanalysis of the synoptics for those periods, the associated
lows were not that extreme, but they took a track that just does not
happen these days, let alone 4 in 15 years, from the north, west of
Ireland and then turning into the English channel. Plenty of lows go
into the English Channel but don't produce historically excessive sea
levels, 1703 and 1824 events were probably due to true huricanes.
My conjecture is , due to the longer transit time via the North Sea,
close passage west or Scotland induces a positive surge into the North
Sea, that passes through Dover and attenuated going west through the
English channel but sums to the normal sort of west to east surge in the
channel associated with a low going into the channel from the west, so a
double-whammy.
Once I have a date I can check the BODC UK tide gauge data for North Sea
residuals
Incidently storm Frank seems to have induced a negative surge in the
North Sea inverse-barometer effect (from its south to north passage west
of Scotland) producing an east to west attenuated surge approx -0.7m in
our channel area that exactly cancelled an otherwise expected +0.7m
west to east surge in the Solent area, caused by the same Frank passage
in the Atlantic, taking 2 paths around the UK but temporally coincident
in the Solent.

On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 16:47:45 UTC, N_Cook wrote:

Local marine flooding approx 100 years ago , on dates
27 oct 1909
26 dec 1912
05 Nov 1916
27 nov 1924
were more extreme than in the following decades to the present.

The 20th Century reanalysis should have data going back to those times. It's just a case of trying to find who might have dug out storm tracks from this reanalysis. Kevin Hodges at Reading (the tracking algorithm guru) might be able to point you in the right direction.

Richard

On Tuesday, January 12, 2016 at 4:33:13 PM UTC, Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 14:52:42 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
... to discover its affect on the North Sea sea levels.
The particular path is from the Icelandic area coming south , close to
north of Scotland but passing west of it, and west of Ireland before
going NW, west or southwest, ie not over the UK. Preferably in the last
20 years.
Any ideas how to go about it, other than squandering bandwidth on
weterzentral.de

Mot sure about the track Low but I found the album
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bc_kPLYPTwI

Good linking of threads!

Meanwhile my other half is currently playing this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HZj-ibB1ivA

Graham
Penzance

Found one example there, end Jan 1985, that may fit the bill, ignoring
effects of its later path over Wales. 19 winters 1980 to 1998 and only
one instance of Icelandish area to west of Scotland, so continuing west
of Ireland certainly is a rare path these days.

On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 16:47:45 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 12/01/2016 14:58, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 14:52:42 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
... to discover its affect on the North Sea sea levels.
The particular path is from the Icelandic area coming south , close to
north of Scotland but passing west of it, and west of Ireland before
going NW, west or southwest, ie not over the UK. Preferably in the last
20 years.
Any ideas how to go about it, other than squandering bandwidth on
weterzentral.de

This might be a useful starting point.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks/

Richard


Many thanks for that, what a useful resource. I've not found an example
in a winter quarter of the years I've chosen so far , but that is
probably associated with my conjecture.

Local marine flooding approx 100 years ago , on dates
27 oct 1909
26 dec 1912
05 Nov 1916
27 nov 1924
were more extreme than in the following decades to the present.
Looking at reanalysis of the synoptics for those periods, the associated
lows were not that extreme, but they took a track that just does not
happen these days, let alone 4 in 15 years, from the north, west of
Ireland and then turning into the English channel. Plenty of lows go
into the English Channel but don't produce historically excessive sea
levels, 1703 and 1824 events were probably due to true huricanes.
My conjecture is , due to the longer transit time via the North Sea,
close passage west or Scotland induces a positive surge into the North
Sea, that passes through Dover and attenuated going west through the
English channel but sums to the normal sort of west to east surge in the
channel associated with a low going into the channel from the west, so a
double-whammy.
Once I have a date I can check the BODC UK tide gauge data for North Sea
residuals
Incidently storm Frank seems to have induced a negative surge in the
North Sea inverse-barometer effect (from its south to north passage west
of Scotland) producing an east to west attenuated surge approx -0.7m in
our channel area that exactly cancelled an otherwise expected +0.7m
west to east surge in the Solent area, caused by the same Frank passage
in the Atlantic, taking 2 paths around the UK but temporally coincident
in the Solent.

A complicating factor in all this is the natural resonance of the North Sea which can be amplified by the wind if the timing is right, i.e. the speed of movement of the Low. My actual knowledge of this effect is a bit skimpy but it was implicated in the North Sea Floods of Jan 1953.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

On 13/01/2016 04:46, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 16:47:45 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 12/01/2016 14:58, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 14:52:42 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
... to discover its affect on the North Sea sea levels.
The particular path is from the Icelandic area coming south , close to
north of Scotland but passing west of it, and west of Ireland before
going NW, west or southwest, ie not over the UK. Preferably in the last
20 years.
Any ideas how to go about it, other than squandering bandwidth on
weterzentral.de

This might be a useful starting point.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks/

Richard


Many thanks for that, what a useful resource. I've not found an example
in a winter quarter of the years I've chosen so far , but that is
probably associated with my conjecture.

Local marine flooding approx 100 years ago , on dates
27 oct 1909
26 dec 1912
05 Nov 1916
27 nov 1924
were more extreme than in the following decades to the present.
Looking at reanalysis of the synoptics for those periods, the associated
lows were not that extreme, but they took a track that just does not
happen these days, let alone 4 in 15 years, from the north, west of
Ireland and then turning into the English channel. Plenty of lows go
into the English Channel but don't produce historically excessive sea
levels, 1703 and 1824 events were probably due to true huricanes.
My conjecture is , due to the longer transit time via the North Sea,
close passage west or Scotland induces a positive surge into the North
Sea, that passes through Dover and attenuated going west through the
English channel but sums to the normal sort of west to east surge in the
channel associated with a low going into the channel from the west, so a
double-whammy.
Once I have a date I can check the BODC UK tide gauge data for North Sea
residuals
Incidently storm Frank seems to have induced a negative surge in the
North Sea inverse-barometer effect (from its south to north passage west
of Scotland) producing an east to west attenuated surge approx -0.7m in
our channel area that exactly cancelled an otherwise expected +0.7m
west to east surge in the Solent area, caused by the same Frank passage
in the Atlantic, taking 2 paths around the UK but temporally coincident
in the Solent.

A complicating factor in all this is the natural resonance of the North Sea which can be amplified by the wind if the timing is right, i.e. the speed of movement of the Low. My actual knowledge of this effect is a bit skimpy but it was implicated in the North Sea Floods of Jan 1953.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.


Yes the Sheerness tidegauge often seems to have a mind of its own

On Wednesday, 13 January 2016 04:46:22 UTC, Tudor Hughes wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 16:47:45 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
On 12/01/2016 14:58, Richard Dixon wrote:
On Tuesday, 12 January 2016 14:52:42 UTC, N_Cook wrote:
... to discover its affect on the North Sea sea levels.
The particular path is from the Icelandic area coming south , close to
north of Scotland but passing west of it, and west of Ireland before
going NW, west or southwest, ie not over the UK. Preferably in the last
20 years.
Any ideas how to go about it, other than squandering bandwidth on
weterzentral.de

This might be a useful starting point.

http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks/

Richard


Many thanks for that, what a useful resource. I've not found an example
in a winter quarter of the years I've chosen so far , but that is
probably associated with my conjecture.

Local marine flooding approx 100 years ago , on dates
27 oct 1909
26 dec 1912
05 Nov 1916
27 nov 1924
were more extreme than in the following decades to the present.
Looking at reanalysis of the synoptics for those periods, the associated
lows were not that extreme, but they took a track that just does not
happen these days, let alone 4 in 15 years, from the north, west of
Ireland and then turning into the English channel. Plenty of lows go
into the English Channel but don't produce historically excessive sea
levels, 1703 and 1824 events were probably due to true huricanes.
My conjecture is , due to the longer transit time via the North Sea,
close passage west or Scotland induces a positive surge into the North
Sea, that passes through Dover and attenuated going west through the
English channel but sums to the normal sort of west to east surge in the
channel associated with a low going into the channel from the west, so a
double-whammy.
Once I have a date I can check the BODC UK tide gauge data for North Sea
residuals
Incidently storm Frank seems to have induced a negative surge in the
North Sea inverse-barometer effect (from its south to north passage west
of Scotland) producing an east to west attenuated surge approx -0.7m in
our channel area that exactly cancelled an otherwise expected +0.7m
west to east surge in the Solent area, caused by the same Frank passage
in the Atlantic, taking 2 paths around the UK but temporally coincident
in the Solent.

A complicating factor in all this is the natural resonance of the North Sea which can be amplified by the wind if the timing is right, i.e. the speed of movement of the Low. My actual knowledge of this effect is a bit skimpy but it was implicated in the North Sea Floods of Jan 1953.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey.

I have 2.5°x2.5° gridded data and I was going to set myself a programming task of tracking highs an lows (yes I am quite sad but you have to fill the days). Finding the crude position of highs and lows wouldn't be the problem but keeping track of the low/high would using 6 hourly charts would be difficult to automate and require some human input I reckon.