**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

In message , Col
writes
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be
under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source
and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.


That's certainly not how I read the 12Z operational runs of the ECM and
GFS. Though zonality will probably have returned to the north by T+240,
in the south it looks as if we'll still be close to the centre of an
anticyclone, with what little wind there is from the south or
south-east. Though the air will by then be very mild aloft, as shown by
the 850mb temperatures, I'd expect there to be a marked inversion, with
temperatures near the ground still decidedly chilly.

Of course, based on recent model performance it could all change by the
next run. In fact based on the recent runs I'm rather surprised that
Dawlish's tests for consistency from run to run have been met.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:29:21 PM UTC, John Hall wrote:
In message , Col
writes
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be
under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source
and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.


That's certainly not how I read the 12Z operational runs of the ECM and
GFS. Though zonality will probably have returned to the north by T+240,
in the south it looks as if we'll still be close to the centre of an
anticyclone, with what little wind there is from the south or
south-east. Though the air will by then be very mild aloft, as shown by
the 850mb temperatures, I'd expect there to be a marked inversion, with
temperatures near the ground still decidedly chilly.

Of course, based on recent model performance it could all change by the
next run. In fact based on the recent runs I'm rather surprised that
Dawlish's tests for consistency from run to run have been met.
--
John Hall
"Honest criticism is hard to take,
particularly from a relative, a friend,
an acquaintance, or a stranger." Franklin P Jones

Oh they have, John!

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums.

On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now!

I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould
chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty.

I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the
model output threads on forums.

So you know best obviously.
Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now!

I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould
chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty.

I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the
model output threads on forums.

So you know best obviously.
Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Best way.

PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go.

On 14/01/2016 19:07, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote:


So you know best obviously.
Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Best way.

PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go.

Indeed it does, things seem to be going your way so far.
But there is no point in giving a running commentary on the inevitable
twists & turns prior to the 23rd so I will leave it at that for now

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Thursday, 14 January 2016 19:07:26 UTC, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 9:13:25 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now!

I'm not 'judging' your forecast, merely expressing surpise that you ould
chose to issue at a time of such uncertainty.

I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the
model output threads on forums.

So you know best obviously.
Fair enough, we will see on the 23rd.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Best way.

PS I don't 'know' anything, Col. I just have 80% confidence that this forecast will achieve outcome. Looks OK tonight, but there's 9 days to go.

It looks like it *could* all hinge on what the low (FAX chart L1010 at 120Z) on Monday does. Will it stall, turn left or turn right? MetO are still saying not to look beyond 120Z


--

------------------------------

*This email was sent by a company owned by Financial Times Group Limited
("FT Group http://aboutus.ft.com/corporate-information/#axzz3rajCSIAt"),
registered office at Number One Southwark Bridge, London SE1 9HL.
Registered in England and Wales with company number 879531. This e-mail may
contain confidential information. If you are not the intended recipient,
please notify the sender immediately, delete all copies and do not
distribute it further. It could also contain personal views which are not
necessarily those of the FT Group. We may monitor outgoing or
incoming emails as permitted by law.*

On 13/01/2016 21:05, Dawlish wrote:
On Wednesday, January 13, 2016 at 8:04:48 PM UTC, Col wrote:
On 13/01/2016 19:27, Dawlish wrote:
**In 10 days time, on Saturday 23rd January 2016, the UK will be under a zonal weather regime. Our weather will have an Atlantic source and it will be controlled by a large European high pressure system. **

The colder weather of this week and into next won't last long.

Good luck with that one!

I regularly read the Model Output thread on TWO and the gist I am
getting from that is that over the past week or so the models hwve been
flip-flopping like mad are hard pushed to call anything at 5 days, let
alone 10.

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Judge the forecast at outcome. Not now! I'm not in the slightest bit interested in what is being said on the model output threads on forums.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------
When you posted this my reaction was the same as John's. A higher degree
of risk than usual. One of the problems being greater day to day
fluctuations in the models, a trickier than average synoptic pattern and
the UKMO holding a different view much of the time. Of course that one
isn't part of your formula as it doesn't go out to T+240.
I suspect you will be right but noticed you didn't *forecast* much in
December when there was bigger cross model support at that range.
Dave