One thing I've noticed with this ridiculously mild winter is that the
computer models haven't thrown out any of their usual "surprise" bitter
cold scenarios. Usually they have a few distant projections of -12C
850's and bitter easterlies - such charts being referred to as "eye
candy" by the coldies. None of that this winter and the models seeming
to verify the mildness quite accurately.
The good news is the excesses of the Express have been kept to a minimum
because of this!
Dave

On 10/02/2016 18:42, Dave Cornwell wrote:
One thing I've noticed with this ridiculously mild winter is that the
computer models haven't thrown out any of their usual "surprise" bitter
cold scenarios. Usually they have a few distant projections of -12C
850's and bitter easterlies - such charts being referred to as "eye
candy" by the coldies. None of that this winter and the models seeming
to verify the mildness quite accurately.
The good news is the excesses of the Express have been kept to a minimum
because of this!

There were a few during the mid-Jan cold(ish) spell. But they were
always at least a week to 10 days away so interesting if you are looking
for trends but ultimately unreliable. Got some peole over on TWO quite
excited though

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

On Wednesday, February 10, 2016 at 6:42:12 PM UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
One thing I've noticed with this ridiculously mild winter is that the
computer models haven't thrown out any of their usual "surprise" bitter
cold scenarios. Usually they have a few distant projections of -12C
850's and bitter easterlies - such charts being referred to as "eye
candy" by the coldies. None of that this winter and the models seeming
to verify the mildness quite accurately.
The good news is the excesses of the Express have been kept to a minimum
because of this!
Dave

I also noticed this, as when the eye candy appears, it has been the first glimpse of a genuine cold spell on the way and finally materialising.
I wondered whether it's a case of improvements in the computer modelling that has helped iron these out.
Either this or the models are actually a genuine influence on the outcome and lack of cold forecasts has resulted in a lack of cold outcomes. If only!

On Wednesday, 10 February 2016 18:42:12 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
One thing I've noticed with this ridiculously mild winter is that the
computer models haven't thrown out any of their usual "surprise" bitter
cold scenarios. Usually they have a few distant projections of -12C
850's and bitter easterlies - such charts being referred to as "eye
candy" by the coldies. None of that this winter and the models seeming
to verify the mildness quite accurately.
The good news is the excesses of the Express have been kept to a minimum
because of this!
Dave

Is it because the PV has been 'holding firm'?

I'd not noticed just how mild this winter has been until I had a count up of the air frosts this winter - there's currently fewer than there was at this point in that other ridiculously mild winter of 2013/14. I wonder if we're going to 'pay' for this late February / early March? It could spell disaster for growers - my fruit trees are already well in bud.

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On Wednesday, 10 February 2016 18:42:12 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:
One thing I've noticed with this ridiculously mild winter is that the
computer models haven't thrown out any of their usual "surprise" bitter
cold scenarios. Usually they have a few distant projections of -12C
850's and bitter easterlies - such charts being referred to as "eye
candy" by the coldies.

The thing I've found interesting this winter is the frequency of forecasts of mid-Atlantic ridges that - at times - have threatened to join up with Greenland (or to a lesser extent, Scandinavian highs that have been few and far between in ensembles let along the poor man's ensemble).

None of that this winter and the models seeming
to verify the mildness quite accurately.
The good news is the excesses of the Express have been kept to a minimum
because of this!

I suspect Nathan Rao is signing up to the dole until he can find some thunderstorms or heatwaves to pay the bills...

Richard

On Wednesday, 10 February 2016 20:15:13 UTC, Scott W wrote:

I'd not noticed just how mild this winter has been until I had a count up of the air frosts this winter - there's currently fewer than there was at this point in that other ridiculously mild winter of 2013/14.

I'd be interested to see how this winter comes up against the mild winters of the last 25 years or so in terms of dearth of air frosts/ground frosts - e.g. 1989/90 westerly winter.

Richard

On Wed, 10 Feb 2016 13:21:09 -0800 (PST), Richard Dixon
wrote:

On Wednesday, 10 February 2016 20:15:13 UTC, Scott W wrote:

I'd not noticed just how mild this winter has been until I had a count up of the air frosts this winter - there's currently fewer than there was at this point in that other ridiculously mild winter of 2013/14.

I'd be interested to see how this winter comes up against the mild winters of the last 25 years or so in terms of dearth of air frosts/ground frosts - e.g. 1989/90 westerly winter.

Richard

There's still a lot of winter left, Richard :-)

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

On 10/02/2016 21:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
On Wed, 10 Feb 2016 13:21:09 -0800 (PST), Richard Dixon
wrote:

On Wednesday, 10 February 2016 20:15:13 UTC, Scott W wrote:

I'd not noticed just how mild this winter has been until I had a count up of the air frosts this winter - there's currently fewer than there was at this point in that other ridiculously mild winter of 2013/14.

I'd be interested to see how this winter comes up against the mild winters of the last 25 years or so in terms of dearth of air frosts/ground frosts - e.g. 1989/90 westerly winter.

Richard

There's still a lot of winter left, Richard :-)


There certainly is. Oh look, it's The Telegraph to the rescue this time
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weat...ter-blast.html

--
George in Swanston, Edinburgh, 580'asl
www.swanstonweather.co.uk
www.eppingweather.co.uk
www.winter1947.co.uk

On 10/02/2016 22:08, George Booth wrote:
On 10/02/2016 21:50, Norman Lynagh wrote:
On Wed, 10 Feb 2016 13:21:09 -0800 (PST), Richard Dixon
wrote:

On Wednesday, 10 February 2016 20:15:13 UTC, Scott W wrote:

I'd not noticed just how mild this winter has been until I had a
count up of the air frosts this winter - there's currently fewer
than there was at this point in that other ridiculously mild winter
of 2013/14.

I'd be interested to see how this winter comes up against the mild
winters of the last 25 years or so in terms of dearth of air
frosts/ground frosts - e.g. 1989/90 westerly winter.

Richard

There's still a lot of winter left, Richard :-)


There certainly is. Oh look, it's The Telegraph to the rescue this time
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/weat...ter-blast.html


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
"with temperatures between 0C and -3C, which could happen anywhere.”
He added: "In the northern part of Scotland, people will wake up to a
covering of snow on Thursday morning with accumulations of up to several
centimetres. A band of rain and snow will slowly move its way southwards
but it will peter out as it reaches central parts.""

Scary stuff eh! But perhaps we should change our attitude. At least us
old golden coldies. This probably is newsworthy in the context of the
winters of the last 35 years and that is probably the age of many of the
journalists writing this stuff. Perhaps we should be more tolerant and a
bit less cynical. :-)
Dave

On Wednesday, 10 February 2016 22:48:38 UTC, Dave Cornwell wrote:

"with temperatures between 0C and -3C, which could happen anywhere."
He added: "In the northern part of Scotland, people will wake up to a
covering of snow on Thursday morning with accumulations of up to several
centimetres. A band of rain and snow will slowly move its way southwards
but it will peter out as it reaches central parts.""

Nice to see the Telegraph has morphed into the Daily Express and is using James Madden for quotes. Unbelievable.

Richard