Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article titled 'Is the
Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The conclusion is that the jury
is still out.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 9:54:07 AM UTC-5, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article titled 'Is the
Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The conclusion is that the jury
is still out.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

========

Thank you for bringing this to our attention, Norman.

For those interested here's a link:

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip...1063/PT.3.3107

And this follows a paper last October in the AMS Journal (and previous work notably by Jennifer Francis):

http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/...I-D-14-00822.1

'The Melting Arctic and Midlatitude Weather Patterns: Are They Connected?'

Quote: "The quantitative impact of Arctic change on midlatitude weather may not be resolved within the foreseeable future, yet new studies of the changing Arctic and subarctic low-frequency dynamics, together with additional Arctic observations, can contribute to improved skill in extended-range forecasts, as planned by the WMO Polar Prediction Project (PPP)."

Stephen.

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article titled
'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had been
proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased. This led to
large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper atmosphere. It's
perhaps significant that the period of Arctic warming ended with a
series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of the
jet-stream will result from differential warming between the Arctic
and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who ignore history
are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of atmospheric
dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far as the weather is
concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a right as they did
during the first half of the twentieth century..

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On 10/03/2016 15:31, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article titled
'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had been
proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased. This led to
large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper atmosphere. It's
perhaps significant that the period of Arctic warming ended with a
series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of the
jet-stream will result from differential warming between the Arctic
and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who ignore history
are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of atmospheric
dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far as the weather is
concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a right as they did
during the first half of the twentieth century..


While its still available on catchup. Sunday, BBC News channel half hour
piece in slot This Week, next week.
A Prof Mark Macklin of Aber Uni on the welsh equivalent of the EA , not
using historical references for river/rain flood levels and so erroneous
return period calculations.
Very similar in the Solent area for marine flooding preventative
measuures. The EA and related agencies will not use properly researched
historic records. So they end up with "computer calculated" return flood
heights for 500 year period, that do not reach the level the Solent got
to in 1924, let alone the great Channel storms of 1703 and 1824, all
within 500 years. Scientists or astrologers?

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 10:31:29 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article titled
'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had been
proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased. This led to
large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper atmosphere. It's
perhaps significant that the period of Arctic warming ended with a
series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of the
jet-stream will result from differential warming between the Arctic
and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who ignore history
are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of atmospheric
dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far as the weather is
concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a right as they did
during the first half of the twentieth century..

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

=========

Graham,

Thanks for the reminder.

Would this be the paper in question?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...161.x/abstract


Stephen.

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 16:21:19 +0000
N_Cook wrote:

On 10/03/2016 15:31, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article titled
'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had
been proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased.
This led to large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper
atmosphere. It's perhaps significant that the period of Arctic
warming ended with a series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of
the jet-stream will result from differential warming between the
Arctic and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who
ignore history are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of
atmospheric dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far
as the weather is concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a
right as they did during the first half of the twentieth century..


While its still available on catchup. Sunday, BBC News channel half
hour piece in slot This Week, next week.
A Prof Mark Macklin of Aber Uni on the welsh equivalent of the EA ,
not using historical references for river/rain flood levels and so
erroneous return period calculations.
Very similar in the Solent area for marine flooding preventative
measuures. The EA and related agencies will not use properly
researched historic records. So they end up with "computer
calculated" return flood heights for 500 year period, that do not
reach the level the Solent got to in 1924, let alone the great
Channel storms of 1703 and 1824, all within 500 years. Scientists or
astrologers?

Yes, there's plenty of examples of scientists re-inventing or
re-discovering the wheel. What makes it worse is when they come up with
a square wheel instead of a circular one.

Last year, scientists came up with the perfect way to cut toenails to
avoid ingrowing ones. Trouble is, you have to cut them to a perfect
parabola; who the hell can do that?! Why didn't their mothers or
grandmothers tell them how to do it properly, i.e. by cutting the nail
straight across?

Also last year there was a big fuss about a discovery that people who
drank plenty of milk suffered fewer heart problems. Why were the
scientists shocked by the result? I've heard of a couple of other
surveys over the past twenty years that came up with the same answer.

Then there's the cases where the existence of the wheel has been
forgotten. H H Lamb's work on the use of SST anomalies in long-range
forecasting has been forgotten by so-called experts.

Another forgotten piece of knowledge seems, according an edition of New
Scientist a few months ago, to be the cause of hiccups. Sixty years
ago, the Radio Doctor explained the cause but now the medical
profession apparently don't know. Fat chance them finding a cure if
they've forgotten the cause. Luckily for me, thirty years ago, I
remembered the cause and worked out a cure. What surprised was not just
that it worked but that it has prevented me having attacks since that
discovery.

I might think they're just plain lazy and so don't bother with
research but I've had trouble finding the original evidence, like in
the cases of discovery over fifty years ago of NAD shutdowns and, at
the same time, a theory as to why ice is slippery, yet another wheel
that was re-invented a few weeks ago.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 08:40:44 -0800 (PST)
Stephen Davenport wrote:

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 10:31:29 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article
titled 'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had
been proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased.
This led to large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper
atmosphere. It's perhaps significant that the period of Arctic
warming ended with a series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of
the jet-stream will result from differential warming between the
Arctic and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who
ignore history are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of
atmospheric dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far
as the weather is concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a
right as they did during the first half of the twentieth century..


=========

Graham,

Thanks for the reminder.

Would this be the paper in question?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...161.x/abstract


Stephen.


That's the one, thanks for posting the link.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

While its still available on catchup. Sunday, BBC News channel half hour
piece in slot This Week, next week.



Or "Week in, Week out"

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 11:49:51 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 08:40:44 -0800 (PST)
Stephen Davenport wrote:

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 10:31:29 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article
titled 'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had
been proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased.
This led to large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper
atmosphere. It's perhaps significant that the period of Arctic
warming ended with a series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of
the jet-stream will result from differential warming between the
Arctic and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who
ignore history are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of
atmospheric dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far
as the weather is concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a
right as they did during the first half of the twentieth century..


=========

Graham,

Thanks for the reminder.

Would this be the paper in question?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...161.x/abstract


Stephen.


That's the one, thanks for posting the link.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

=========


Thank you. I have downloaded.

Interestingly it begins as a rebuttal of the popular idea at the time that climatic fluctuations were wholly or largely due to variations in solar radiation.


Stephen.

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

Unfortunately, this post is just rubbish and based on anecdotes. Exactly what you appear to detest, Graham. How can these silly memory analogies be applied to the quality research in the OP? I don't understand why you've written this. It's just an opinionated rant around things that you don't like about today, compared to some halcyon days you used to live in.

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 09:34:27 -0800 (PST)
Stephen Davenport wrote:

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 11:49:51 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 08:40:44 -0800 (PST)
Stephen Davenport wrote:

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 10:31:29 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article
titled 'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude
Weather?'. The conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 ,
an article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument
that a pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper
winds had been proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds
increased. This led to large slow-moving or stationary waves in
the upper atmosphere. It's perhaps significant that the period
of Arctic warming ended with a series of severe winters in
Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing
of the jet-stream will result from differential warming between
the Arctic and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists
who ignore history are doomed to repeat it. However, their
ignorance of atmospheric dynamics may again save their
forecasting bacon as far as the weather is concerned. Perhaps
two wrongs will again make a right as they did during the first
half of the twentieth century..

=========

Graham,

Thanks for the reminder.

Would this be the paper in question?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...161.x/abstract


Stephen.


That's the one, thanks for posting the link.

=========


Thank you. I have downloaded.

Interestingly it begins as a rebuttal of the popular idea at the time
that climatic fluctuations were wholly or largely due to variations
in solar radiation.


Yes, I must say I kept getting a feeling of deja vu when I read it.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thursday, 10 March 2016 14:54:07 UTC, Norman Lynagh wrote:
The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article titled 'Is the
Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The conclusion is that the jury
is still out.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

Don't you Arcticle on the melting Artic

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 5:34:28 PM UTC, Stephen Davenport wrote:
On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 11:49:51 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 08:40:44 -0800 (PST)
Stephen Davenport wrote:

On Thursday, March 10, 2016 at 10:31:29 AM UTC-5, Graham P Davis
wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article
titled 'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had
been proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased.
This led to large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper
atmosphere. It's perhaps significant that the period of Arctic
warming ended with a series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of
the jet-stream will result from differential warming between the
Arctic and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who
ignore history are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of
atmospheric dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far
as the weather is concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a
right as they did during the first half of the twentieth century..


=========

Graham,

Thanks for the reminder.

Would this be the paper in question?

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...161.x/abstract


Stephen.


That's the one, thanks for posting the link.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
I wear the cheese. It does not wear me.
Posted with Claws: http://www.claws-mail.org/

=========


Thank you. I have downloaded.

Interestingly it begins as a rebuttal of the popular idea at the time that climatic fluctuations were wholly or largely due to variations in solar radiation.


Stephen.

Graham and Stephen,

Thanks for finding that article. I am a great fan of C.E.P. Brooks since reading his book "Climate through the Ages" reviewed he http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...tb05488.x/epdf (You may need to login to the RMetSoc website to access it.)

The book begins by discussing the Arctic sea ice and concludes that if the temperature rises by 2C then the ice will melt completely. The rise in temperature since 1950 in the Arctic is currently much greater than that. But the scientists don't seem to have reinvented that discovery :-(

Cheers, Alastair.

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thursday, 10 March 2016 15:31:29 UTC, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 10 Mar 2016 14:55:02 +0000
Norman Lynagh wrote:

The March issue of 'Physics Today' contains a review article titled
'Is the Melting Arctic Changing Mid-Latitude Weather?'. The
conclusion is that the jury is still out.


There was a similar discussion over sixty years ago. In 1950 , an
article in Weather by CEP Brooks explained why the argument that a
pre-war, fast-warming Arctic should have decreased upper winds had been
proven to be incorrect. In fact, the upper winds increased. This led to
large slow-moving or stationary waves in the upper atmosphere. It's
perhaps significant that the period of Arctic warming ended with a
series of severe winters in Europe.

The current re-hash of the same pre-war(?) idea that a slowing of the
jet-stream will result from differential warming between the Arctic
and the Tropics may be wrong again. Those scientists who ignore history
are doomed to repeat it. However, their ignorance of atmospheric
dynamics may again save their forecasting bacon as far as the weather is
concerned. Perhaps two wrongs will again make a right as they did
during the first half of the twentieth century..

So how long after the atmospheric tests of nuclear bombs DID the cold winters take place?

Physics Today - Article on the Melting Arctic
 

On Thursday, 10 March 2016 19:54:45 UTC, Paul Garvey wrote:

I don't understand some halcyon days you used to live in. it's all the same to me.

It's natal that you don't understand your bonce being full of so much sand. You mum expressly failed to relate the need you had for so much weight?
Perhaps in modern times you'd more when cleaners no longer touched the floor. Did you suppose MRSA had wasted all your curds of whey?