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#11
July 12th 16, 09:07 PM
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Why?
Graham Easterling Wrote in message:
Haha i guessed this post would be about point probability forecasts before I read it!! :-) At 08:00 this morning we had a shower which dropped 3.4mm in 10mins. We are surrounded by showers, with little gap inbetween. The radar demonstrates this. The MetO Fax chart for 06:00 shows a trough overhead, there is clearly deep convection but . . . Chance of rain for Penzance @ 08:00 & 09:00 still shown as 5% (it's now 09:20 by the way - so it's happened). If anyone involved could explain that, I'd be interested. It's an automated forecast with no manual input. I would hazard a guess that the model wasn't forecasting showers at the grid point nearest you at that particular time. Why it wasn't forecasting them is the question that needs an answer... -- Freddie Pontesbury Shropshire 102 m AMSL http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/ http://twitter.com/PontesburyWx for hourly updates ----Android NewsGroup Reader---- http://usenet.sinaapp.com/ |
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