Cape and Li instability data for coming Tuesday and Wednesday
 

I've only recently started looking at this GFS output data.
Is max/min of -8 and 2000 sort of figues exceptional or perfectly
normal for thundery type conditions over the UK?

Cape and Li instability data for coming Tuesday and Wednesday
 

On Monday, July 18, 2016 at 10:41:06 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
I've only recently started looking at this GFS output data.
Is max/min of -8 and 2000 sort of figues exceptional or perfectly
normal for thundery type conditions over the UK?

Yes, 2000 usually required,also depends on shear.
Tues and Wed evenings this week most likely but the trick is exactly where in the UK?

UKMO just give a large yellow warning blob for rain.

Cape and Li instability data for coming Tuesday and Wednesday
 

On Monday, July 18, 2016 at 4:39:43 PM UTC+1, Len Wood wrote:
On Monday, July 18, 2016 at 10:41:06 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
I've only recently started looking at this GFS output data.
Is max/min of -8 and 2000 sort of figues exceptional or perfectly
normal for thundery type conditions over the UK?

Yes, 2000 usually required,also depends on shear.
Tues and Wed evenings this week most likely but the trick is exactly where in the UK?

UKMO just give a large yellow warning blob for rain.

I'm pleased to say the sea has now turned yellow off Cornwall.
http://old.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reursst.gif

And proper ansome is is to

Graham
Penzance

Cape and Li instability data for coming Tuesday and Wednesday
 

On 18/07/2016 16:39, Len Wood wrote:
On Monday, July 18, 2016 at 10:41:06 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
I've only recently started looking at this GFS output data.
Is max/min of -8 and 2000 sort of figues exceptional or perfectly
normal for thundery type conditions over the UK?

Yes, 2000 usually required,also depends on shear.
Tues and Wed evenings this week most likely but the trick is exactly where in the UK?

UKMO just give a large yellow warning blob for rain.


AFAICS the scales they choose for these graphical data plots is fixed
for all time and when I see colours right at the exreme, I naturally
seem to think it must be extreme, as something like Poisson distribution
assumed

Cape and Li instability data for coming Tuesday and Wednesday
 

On 18/07/2016 16:39, Len Wood wrote:
On Monday, July 18, 2016 at 10:41:06 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
I've only recently started looking at this GFS output data.
Is max/min of -8 and 2000 sort of figues exceptional or perfectly
normal for thundery type conditions over the UK?

Yes, 2000 usually required,also depends on shear.
Tues and Wed evenings this week most likely but the trick is exactly where in the UK?

UKMO just give a large yellow warning blob for rain.


I make that projected for somewhere over the midlands tonight, to have a
CAPE value of over 2700

Cape and Li instability data for coming Tuesday and Wednesday
 

On 19/07/2016 07:32, N_Cook wrote:
On 18/07/2016 16:39, Len Wood wrote:
On Monday, July 18, 2016 at 10:41:06 AM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
I've only recently started looking at this GFS output data.
Is max/min of -8 and 2000 sort of figues exceptional or perfectly
normal for thundery type conditions over the UK?

Yes, 2000 usually required,also depends on shear.
Tues and Wed evenings this week most likely but the trick is exactly
where in the UK?

UKMO just give a large yellow warning blob for rain.


I make that projected for somewhere over the midlands tonight, to have a
CAPE value of over 2700

-10 latent heat index and well over 2700 CAPE for over night, middle UK