Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17 forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter forecasts stuff by now.)

On 05/09/2016 16:48, wrote:
Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17 forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter forecasts stuff by now.)


If you asked the people behind this paper, they might tell you
http://tinyurl.com/jfst6x4
hotter or colder than the average anyway

wrote:

Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17
forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter
forecasts stuff by now.)

I was asked today if the abundance of berries on the trees at the moment
heralded a severe winter. My response was that the abundance of berries was the
result of a good growing season and had no predictive capability.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

On 05/09/2016 19:40, Norman Lynagh wrote:
wrote:

Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17
forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter
forecasts stuff by now.)

I was asked today if the abundance of berries on the trees at the moment
heralded a severe winter. My response was that the abundance of berries was the
result of a good growing season and had no predictive capability.


A bought in a sale a number of Canary Date Palms for the garden, looks
like a Mediterranean patio atm ;-) I was wondering whether I maybe
tempting fate with the coming winter weather...

--
Keith (Southend)
"Weather Home & Abroad"
http://www.southendweather.net
Twitter:@SS9Weatherman

On 05/09/2016 16:48, wrote:
Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17 forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter forecasts stuff by now.)

The headlines of the Daily Excess regularly keep people on here amused
during those long winter months of unrelenting mild & wet conditions

I predict that winter 2016/17 will consist of the months of December,
January & February. I'm not prepared to stick my neck out any further
than that.....

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Col wrote:

On 05/09/2016 16:48, wrote:
Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17
forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter
forecasts stuff by now.)

The headlines of the Daily Excess regularly keep people on here amused during
those long winter months of unrelenting mild & wet conditions

I predict that winter 2016/17 will consist of the months of December, January
& February. I'm not prepared to stick my neck out any further than that.....

I can go a bit further than that, Col. I predict that during the period Dec
2016 to Feb 2017 there will be weather! That will prove to be 100% accurate but
will be of no value to anyone whatsoever!

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
http://peakdistrictweather.org

On 05/09/2016 16:48, wrote:
Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17 forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter forecasts stuff by now.)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The truth of the matter is that in the words of "QI" - Nobody knows.
Anyone who claims they do in September is either lying or misguided.
Anyone who got it vaguely right in the past in September (and it always
is vague isn't it?) just got lucky!
Dave

---
This email has been checked for viruses by Avast antivirus software.
https://www.avast.com/antivirus

On Monday, September 5, 2016 at 4:48:07 PM UTC+1, wrote:
Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17 forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter forecasts stuff by now.)

Winter is too far off but I've had a crack at autumn... 'Season of mist and mellow fruitfulness' has already been mentioned elsewhere. https://wansteadmeteo.wordpress.com/...mn-on-the-way/

On Monday, 5 September 2016 19:55:11 UTC+1, Col wrote:
On 05/09/2016 16:48, wrote:
Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17 forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter forecasts stuff by now.)

The headlines of the Daily Excess regularly keep people on here amused
during those long winter months of unrelenting mild & wet conditions

I predict that winter 2016/17 will consist of the months of December,
January & February. I'm not prepared to stick my neck out any further
than that.....

--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl
Snow videos:
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3QvmL4UWBmHFMKWiwYm_gg

Sensible, but someone will start ramping up the chances of a cold winter soon.

On 05/09/2016 19:55, Col wrote:
On 05/09/2016 16:48, wrote:

Has anyone been able to digest the differing long-range winter 16/17
forecasts yet to come to any broad conclusion?

Were any of last year's accurate?

Depends what you mean by accurate. There was probably (at least) one
that had a reasonable correlation with what actually happened since the
spread for the spectrum of predictions covered everything from Siberian
winter to Saharan drought. Only the most outlandish made it to red tops.

All of them missed the onslaught of heavy winter rain and flooding that
may well be a feature of our future climate. Reservoirs up north are
actually still brim full going into this winter - could be interesting!

(I may have missed it, but the Express usually has some crazy winter
forecasts stuff by now.)

The headlines of the Daily Excess regularly keep people on here amused
during those long winter months of unrelenting mild & wet conditions

The lack of such "sky is falling" warnings from them and the Grand
Charlatan himself tends to suggest that it might well be a bad winter.

I predict that winter 2016/17 will consist of the months of December,
January & February. I'm not prepared to stick my neck out any further
than that.....

If we don't get a decent cold winter soon I will have antirrhinums and
pelargoniums that have become small shrubs after three years growth now.
A normal winter would see them off but we haven't had one for ages.

--
Regards,
Martin Brown