I don't suppose there is anyone on here besides myself that knows anything about forecasting super-quakes is there?
The trouble with thamaturgy is the modest ones, such as myself, have a tendency to think small. It isn't that we do so in the hope of getting away with it, so much as not wishing that others get the impression that we enjoy it all.

As a matter of fact I do get a kick out of my faith in god being proved correct. But on the other hand; like the man who got a chronic injury fighting angels, it isn't all hoppity skippity and dancing all night long.

How often is it that we have these things?
Every year is it?
I am sure that someone who knows a lot about earthquakes and statistics will be along to tell us all soon enough.

Given his track record, I have to admire his ability to stand his ground with all four legs in the air and a "take me, you wolf" look in his eyes.

On Saturday, 1 October 2016 10:50:11 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
I don't suppose there is anyone on here besides myself that knows anything about forecasting super-quakes is there?
The trouble with thamaturgy is the modest ones, such as myself, have a tendency to think small. It isn't that we do so in the hope of getting away with it, so much as not wishing that others get the impression that we enjoy it all.

As a matter of fact I do get a kick out of my faith in god being proved correct. But on the other hand; like the man who got a chronic injury fighting angels, it isn't all hoppity skippity and dancing all night long.

How often is it that we have these things?
Every year is it?
I am sure that someone who knows a lot about earthquakes and statistics will be along to tell us all soon enough.

Given his track record, I have to admire his ability to stand his ground with all four legs in the air and a "take me, you wolf" look in his eyes.

Better to admire his ability to debunk your idiocy with a modicum of monitoring. It's not difficult. 😂😂😂

On Saturday, 1 October 2016 11:40:37 UTC+1, School wrote:
On Saturday, 1 October 2016 10:50:11 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
I don't suppose there is anyone on here besides myself that knows anything about forecasting super-quakes is there?
The trouble with thamaturgy is the modest ones, such as myself, have a tendency to think small. It isn't that we do so in the hope of getting away with it, so much as not wishing that others get the impression that we enjoy it all.

As a matter of fact I do get a kick out of my faith in god being proved correct. But on the other hand; like the man who got a chronic injury fighting angels, it isn't all hoppity skippity and dancing all night long.

How often is it that we have these things?
Every year is it?
I am sure that someone who knows a lot about earthquakes and statistics will be along to tell us all soon enough.

Given his track record, I have to admire his ability to stand his ground with all four legs in the air and a "take me, you wolf" look in his eyes.

Better to admire his ability to debunk your idiocy with a modicum of monitoring. It's not difficult. 😂😂😂

On Saturday, 1 October 2016 16:35:46 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Saturday, 1 October 2016 11:40:37 UTC+1, School wrote:
On Saturday, 1 October 2016 10:50:11 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
I don't suppose there is anyone on here besides myself that knows anything about forecasting super-quakes is there?
The trouble with thamaturgy is the modest ones, such as myself, have a tendency to think small. It isn't that we do so in the hope of getting away with it, so much as not wishing that others get the impression that we enjoy it all.

As a matter of fact I do get a kick out of my faith in god being proved correct. But on the other hand; like the man who got a chronic injury fighting angels, it isn't all hoppity skippity and dancing all night long.

How often is it that we have these things?
Every year is it?
I am sure that someone who knows a lot about earthquakes and statistics will be along to tell us all soon enough.

Given his track record, I have to admire his ability to stand his ground with all four legs in the air and a "take me, you wolf" look in his eyes.

All the better to admire your ability to debunk your idiocy with a modicum of monitoring. It's not difficult.

Ew! Gwrandwch; what big caggles you've got.

On Sunday, 2 October 2016 04:14:55 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Saturday, 1 October 2016 16:35:46 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Saturday, 1 October 2016 11:40:37 UTC+1, School wrote:
On Saturday, 1 October 2016 10:50:11 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
I don't suppose there is anyone on here besides myself that knows anything about forecasting super-quakes is there?
The trouble with thamaturgy is the modest ones, such as myself, have a tendency to think small. It isn't that we do so in the hope of getting away with it, so much as not wishing that others get the impression that we enjoy it all.

As a matter of fact I do get a kick out of my faith in god being proved correct. But on the other hand; like the man who got a chronic injury fighting angels, it isn't all hoppity skippity and dancing all night long.

How often is it that we have these things?
Every year is it?
I am sure that someone who knows a lot about earthquakes and statistics will be along to tell us all soon enough.

Given his track record, I have to admire his ability to stand his ground with all four legs in the air and a "take me, you wolf" look in his eyes.

All the better to admire your ability to debunk your idiocy with a modicum of monitoring. It's not difficult.

Ew! Gwrandwch; what big caggles you've got.

The usual idiocy. You've no comeback, because you know full well that what I'm saying about your links between these elements is completely destroyed by your complete inability to forecast anything, based upon your methods.

Forecast with even a small degree of accuracy and I will change my mind.

On Saturday, 1 October 2016 10:50:11 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
I don't suppose there is anyone on here besides myself that knows anything about forecasting super-quakes is there?
The trouble with thamaturgy is the modest ones, such as myself, have a tendency to think small. It isn't that we do so in the hope of getting away with it, so much as not wishing that others get the impression that we enjoy it all.

As a matter of fact I do get a kick out of my faith in god being proved correct. But on the other hand; like the man who got a chronic injury fighting angels, it isn't all hoppity skippity and dancing all night long.

How often is it that we have these things?
Every year is it?
I am sure that someone who knows a lot about earthquakes and statistics will be along to tell us all soon enough.

Given his track record, I have to admire his ability to stand his ground with all four legs in the air and a "take me, you wolf" look in his eyes.

It is strange how agile dead sheep can be unless he was just trying to attract wolves?
While away a while awaiting for inevitable doubtless many Central Englanders have been acute enough to notice all the ice clouds. But notice how few have remarked how flaccid the anticyclonic activity is in the North Atlantic..

Doubtless they are all at another plaice posting extremely interesting observations. I am afraid I don't have a link so can't point you to what they have noticed.

What few will understand about the criticality involved, is the dearth of consecutive adjacent epicentres (swarms) on the SED lists.
They are there of course and the more so, if you include the very low magnitude ones.

You might feel or hear a magnitude 2 or 3 if you live within 50 or 60 miles of an epicentre but stations around the world are liable to miss it, or at least not bother reporting it. Even with infinitely sensitive machines, earthquake detection is extremely subjective.

Objective good, subjective baaaad.

The very powerful cyclone blocking the Atlantic at the moment is huge. Compare for example the category 4 hurricane Matthew. But at least you can get to observe the swarms produced as both Matthew and Chaba decline a little in the next couple of days.

On Monday, 3 October 2016 09:17:11 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Saturday, 1 October 2016 10:50:11 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

......earthquake detection is extremely subjective.

Utter rubbish. Not for earthquakes of Mag5+ it isn't. And I think someone might notice a 'super quake', don't you?

On Monday, 3 October 2016 17:25:35 UTC+1, wrote:
On Monday, 3 October 2016 09:17:11 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
On Saturday, 1 October 2016 10:50:11 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:

.....earthquake detection is extremely subjective.

Utter rubbish. Not for earthquakes of Mag5+ it isn't. And I think someone might notice a 'super quake', don't you?

Having said all that, this:

5.7 Mb (magnitude) Luzon, Philippine Islands 2016/10/02, 13:40.

(For the hard of reading that is a pause of 28 hours.)

For Messrs Easterling and Cook that is 28 hours (and counting) of unimposed upon seiche development.

And back to wet-sheep mode:

Big baaa go boom go bomb!


And finally for us normals:

Something has has to relieve the monotony. Any more of it and there will be too much crosswind development for serious hurricane cyclo-genesis.

Not too much though (once it hits 30 hours or so) to reach tornadic-dercho-genesis.

Seeing that the skies are already heavily laden (one might say overladen) and along with everything else that is going on, it really does look like it is all over baaa the waiting.

Perhaps we can go baaaack a few threaads and recovaaaa some of the answers we may have missed from the questiaaans posed to Paul Foursocks Gaaaarvey in the winter of our discontent?

Or is is lack of content?
I know it's some form of contentiousness-foolishness. (And how can a lamebrain muttonheaded hard of reading numbskull like him get a job advising a nursery school?)

In the spirit of Mathew, I had better stop now before I say something I might regret.

On Tuesday, 4 October 2016 11:03:52 UTC+1, Weatherlawyer wrote:
Having said all that, this:

5.7 Mb (magnitude) Luzon, Philippine Islands 2016/10/02, 13:40.

(For the hard of reading that is a pause of 28 hours.)

For Messrs Easterling and Cook that is 28 hours (and counting) of unimposed upon seiche development.

And back to wet-sheep mode:

Big baaa go boom go bomb!


And finally for us normals:

Something has has to relieve the monotony. Any more of it and there will be too much crosswind development for serious hurricane cyclo-genesis.

Not too much though (once it hits 30 hours or so) to reach tornadic-dercho-genesis.

Seeing that the skies are already heavily laden (one might say overladen) and along with everything else that is going on, it really does look like it is all over baaa the waiting.

Perhaps we can go baaaack a few threaads and recovaaaa some of the answers we may have missed from the questiaaans posed to Paul Foursocks Gaaaarvey in the winter of our discontent?

Or is is lack of content?
I know it's some form of contentiousness-foolishness. (And how can a lamebrain muttonheaded hard of reading numbskull like him get a job advising a nursery school?)

In the spirit of Matthew, I had better stop now before I say something I might regret.

Ooh look! Two days already:
http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/eq/latest/index_EN?list=w

It's a good job I can't count; I may have ended up as a meteorologist :~D

4 October 2016 at 14:00. It takes about two or three hours to get through the mill. 5.6 M. Bonin Islands, Japan, region.

You may recall this to be the place for swarming prior to the previous one this decade. Or how may have we had since? Where are all the wet sheep with their stoopid daisydicks when you want them?

Not counting VEI-4, derechos and cat 4/5 hurricanes and the like:
https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthqua...22 %3Anull%7D

21 this past 16 years or 8 M and larger or for the more prosaic:
As ever, I will tidy it all up and add some pretty pictures when I get a round twit.

Date and time latitude longitude place magType
2016-07-29T21:18:24.740Z 18.5429 145.5073 29km SW of Agrihan, Northern Mariana Islands 7.7 mww
2016-04-16T23:58:36.980Z 0.3819 -79.9218 27km SSE of Muisne, Ecuador 7.8 mww
2016-03-02T12:49:48.110Z -4.9521 94.3299 Southwest of Sumatra, Indonesia 7.8 mww
2015-11-24T22:50:54.370Z -10.0598 -71.0184 211km S of Tarauaca, Brazil 7.6 mww
2015-11-24T22:45:38.880Z -10.5372 -70.9437 173km WNW of Iberia, Peru 7.6 mww
2015-10-26T09:09:42.560Z 36.5244 70.3676 45km E of Farkhar, Afghanistan 7.5 mww
2015-09-16T22:54:32.860Z -31.5729 -71.6744 48km W of Illapel, Chile 8.3 mww
2015-05-30T11:23:02.110Z 27.8386 140.4931 189km WNW of Chichi-shima, Japan 7.8 mww
2015-05-05T01:44:06.380Z -5.4624 151.8751 130km SSW of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea 7.5 mww
2015-04-25T06:11:25.950Z 28.2305 84.7314 36km E of Khudi, Nepal 7.8 mww
2015-03-29T23:48:31.010Z -4.7294 152.5623 53km SE of Kokopo, Papua New Guinea 7.5 mww
2014-06-23T20:53:09.700Z 51.8486 178.7352 19km SE of Little Sitkin Island, Alaska 7.9 mww
2014-04-19T13:28:00.810Z -6.7547 155.0241 70km SW of Panguna, Papua New Guinea 7.5 mww
2014-04-12T20:14:39.300Z -11.2701 162.1481 93km SSE of Kirakira, Solomon Islands 7.6 mww
2014-04-03T02:43:13.110Z -20.5709 -70.4931 53km SW of Iquique, Chile 7.7 mww
2014-04-01T23:46:47.260Z -19.6097 -70.7691 94km NW of Iquique, Chile 8.2 mww
2013-11-17T09:04:55.530Z -60.2738 -46.4011 Scotia Sea 7.7 mww
2013-09-24T11:29:47.970Z 26.951 65.5009 61km NNE of Awaran, Pakistan 7.7 mww
2013-05-24T05:44:48.980Z 54.892 153.221 Sea of Okhotsk 8.3 mww
2013-04-16T10:44:20.180Z 28.033 61.996 83km E of Khash, Iran 7.7 mww
2013-02-06T01:12:25.830Z -10.799 165.114 76km W of Lata, Solomon Islands 8 mww
2013-01-05T08:58:19.330Z 55.393 -134.652 Southeastern Alaska 7.5 mww
2012-10-28T03:04:08.820Z 52.788 -132.101 Haida Gwaii, Canada 7.8 mww
2012-09-05T14:42:07.800Z 10.085 -85.315 Costa Rica 7.6 mww
2012-08-31T12:47:33.380Z 10.811 126.638 Philippine Islands region 7.6 mww
2012-08-14T02:59:38.460Z 49.8 145.064 Sea of Okhotsk 7.7 mww
2012-04-11T10:43:10.850Z 0.802 92.463 off the west coast of northern Sumatra 8.2 mwc
2012-04-11T08:38:36.720Z 2.327 93.063 off the west coast of northern Sumatra 8.6 mww
2011-07-06T19:03:18.260Z -29.539 -176.34 Kermadec Islands region 7.6 mww
2011-03-11T06:25:50.300Z 38.058 144.59 off the east coast of Honshu, Japan 7.7 mwc
2011-03-11T06:15:40.280Z 36.281 141.111 near the east coast of Honshu, Japan 7.9 mwc
2011-03-11T05:46:24.120Z 38.297 142.373 near the east coast of Honshu, Japan 9 mww
2010-10-25T14:42:22.460Z -3.487 100.082 Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia 7.8 mwc
2010-07-23T23:15:10.190Z 6.776 123.259 Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines 7.5 mwc
2010-07-23T22:51:11.840Z 6.497 123.48 Moro Gulf, Mindanao, Philippines 7.6 mwc
2010-06-12T19:26:50.460Z 7.881 91.936 Nicobar Islands, India region 7.5 mwc
2010-04-06T22:15:01.580Z 2.383 97.048 northern Sumatra, Indonesia 7.8 mwc
2010-02-27T06:34:11.530Z -36.122 -72.898 offshore Bio-Bio, Chile 8.8 mwc
2009-10-07T22:18:51.240Z -12.517 166.382 Santa Cruz Islands 7.8 mwc
2009-10-07T22:03:14.470Z -13.006 166.51 Vanuatu 7.7 mww
2009-09-30T10:16:09.250Z -0.72 99.867 southern Sumatra, Indonesia 7.6 mwc
2009-09-29T17:48:10.990Z -15.489 -172.095 Samoa Islands region 8.1 mwc
2009-08-10T19:55:38.730Z 14.099 92.902 Andaman Islands, India region 7.5 mwc
2009-07-15T09:22:29.030Z -45.762 166.562 off the west coast of the South Island of New Zealand 7.8 mwc
2009-03-19T18:17:40.470Z -23.043 -174.66 Tonga region 7.6 mwc
2009-01-03T19:43:50.650Z -0.414 132.885 near the north coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.7 mwc
2008-07-05T02:12:04.480Z 53.882 152.886 Sea of Okhotsk 7.7 mwc
2008-05-12T06:28:01.570Z 31.002 103.322 eastern Sichuan, China 7.9 mwc
2007-12-09T07:28:20.820Z -25.996 -177.514 south of the Fiji Islands 7.8 mwc
2007-11-14T15:40:50.530Z -22.247 -69.89 Antofagasta, Chile 7.7 mwc
2007-09-28T13:38:57.880Z 22.013 142.668 Volcano Islands, Japan region 7.5 mwc
2007-09-12T23:49:03.720Z -2.625 100.841 Kepulauan Mentawai region, Indonesia 7.9 mwc
2007-09-12T11:10:26.830Z -4.438 101.367 southern Sumatra, Indonesia 8.5 mwc
2007-08-15T23:40:57.890Z -13.386 -76.603 near the coast of central Peru 8 mwc
2007-08-08T17:05:04.920Z -5.859 107.419 Java, Indonesia 7.5 mwc
2007-04-01T20:39:58.710Z -8.466 157.043 Solomon Islands 8.1 mwc
2007-01-21T11:27:45.060Z 1.065 126.282 Molucca Sea 7.5 mwc
2007-01-13T04:23:21.160Z 46.243 154.524 east of the Kuril Islands 8.1 mwc
2006-11-15T11:14:13.570Z 46.592 153.266 Kuril Islands 8.3 mwc
2006-07-17T08:19:26.680Z -9.284 107.419 south of Java, Indonesia 7.7 mwc
2006-05-03T15:26:40.290Z -20.187 -174.123 Tonga 8 mwc
2006-04-20T23:25:02.150Z 60.949 167.089 near the east coast of Koryakskiy Avtonomnyy Okrug, Russia 7.6 mwc
2006-01-27T16:58:53.670Z -5.473 128.131 Banda Sea 7.6 mwc
2005-10-08T03:50:40.800Z 34.539 73.588 Pakistan 7.6 mwc
2005-09-26T01:55:37.670Z -5.678 -76.398 northern Peru 7.5 mwb
2005-09-09T07:26:43.730Z -4.539 153.474 New Ireland region, Papua New Guinea 7.6 mwc
2005-06-13T22:44:33.900Z -19.987 -69.197 Tarapaca, Chile 7.8 mwb
2005-03-28T16:09:36.530Z 2.085 97.108 northern Sumatra, Indonesia 8.6 mwc
2004-12-26T00:58:53.450Z 3.295 95.982 off the west coast of northern Sumatra 9.1 mw
2004-12-23T14:59:04.410Z -49.312 161.345 north of Macquarie Island 8.1 mwc
2004-11-11T21:26:41.150Z -8.152 124.868 Kepulauan Alor, Indonesia 7.5 mwc
2003-11-17T06:43:06.800Z 51.146 178.65 Rat Islands, Aleutian Islands, Alaska 7.8 mwc
2003-09-25T19:50:06.360Z 41.815 143.91 Hokkaido, Japan region 8.3 mwc
2003-08-04T04:37:20.130Z -60.532 -43.411 Scotia Sea 7.6 mwc
2003-07-15T20:27:50.530Z -2.598 68.382 Carlsberg Ridge 7.6 mwc
2003-01-22T02:06:34.610Z 18.77 -104.104 offshore Colima, Mexico 7.6 mwb
2002-11-03T22:12:41.000Z 63.517 -147.444 Central Alaska 7.9 mwc
2002-10-10T10:50:20.570Z -1.757 134.297 near the north coast of Papua, Indonesia 7.6 mwc
2002-09-08T18:44:23.710Z -3.302 142.945 near the north coast of New Guinea, Papua New Guinea 7.6 mwc
2002-08-19T11:08:24.310Z -23.884 178.495 south of the Fiji Islands 7.7 mwc
2002-08-19T11:01:01.190Z -21.696 -179.513 Fiji region 7.7 mwc
2002-03-05T21:16:09.130Z 6.033 124.249 Mindanao, Philippines 7.5 mwc
2001-11-14T09:26:10.010Z 35.946 90.541 southern Qinghai, China 7.8 mwc
2001-10-19T03:28:44.460Z -4.102 123.907 Banda Sea 7.5 mwc
2001-07-07T09:38:43.520Z -17.543 -72.077 near the coast of southern Peru 7.6 mwc
2001-06-23T20:33:14.130Z -16.265 -73.641 near the coast of southern Peru 8.4 mwc
2001-01-26T03:16:40.500Z 23.419 70.232 Gujarat, India 7.7 mwc
2001-01-13T17:33:32.380Z 13.049 -88.66 offshore El Salvador 7.7 mwc
2001-01-01T06:57:04.170Z 6.898 126.579 Mindanao, Philippines 7.5 mwc
2000-11-17T21:01:56.490Z -5.496 151.781 New Britain region, Papua New Guinea 7.8 mwc
2000-11-16T07:42:16.930Z -5.233 153.102 New Ireland region, Papua New Guinea 7.8 mwc
2000-11-16T04:54:56.740Z -3.98 152.169 New Ireland region, Papua New Guinea 8 mwc
2000-06-18T14:44:13.310Z -13.802 97.453 South Indian Ocean 7.9 mwc
2000-06-04T16:28:26.170Z -4.721 102.087 southern Sumatra, Indonesia 7.9 mwc
2000-05-04T04:21:16.210Z -1.105 123.573 Sulawesi, Indonesia 7.6 mwc
2000-03-28T11:00:22.510Z 22.338 143.73 Volcano Islands, Japan region 7.6 mwc