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uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged. |
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#1
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Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a
substantial part of london and the southwest. [looks out the window] Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in cambridgshire and calais. And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then whats the point of them? -- Spud |
#2
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On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 08:53:06 +0000 (UTC)
d wrote: Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a substantial part of london and the southwest. Typo - southeast. -- Spud |
#3
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On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 08:53:06 +0000 (UTC)
d wrote: Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a substantial part of london and the southwest. [looks out the window] Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in cambridgshire and calais. And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then whats the point of them? Idiot. --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com |
#4
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On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 10:49:31 +0100
Will Hand wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 08:53:06 +0000 (UTC) wrote: Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a substantial part of london and the southwest. [looks out the window] Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in cambridgshire and calais. And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then whats the point of them? Idiot. Very erudite. Got anything further to add or is that your contribution for the day and you need to go lie down now? FWIW I dragged around a useless umbrella and I suspect some farmers and event managers are a bit put out too. No one expects them to get the weather dead on a week ahead, but 12 hours?? A piece of seaweed could have done better. -- Spud |
#6
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Will Hand wrote:
On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 09:55:03 +0000 (UTC) d wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 10:49:31 +0100 Will Hand wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 08:53:06 +0000 (UTC) d wrote: Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a substantial part of london and the southwest. [looks out the window] Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in cambridgshire and calais. And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then whats the point of them? Idiot. Very erudite. Got anything further to add or is that your contribution for the day and you need to go lie down now? FWIW I dragged around a useless umbrella and I suspect some farmers and event managers are a bit put out too. No one expects them to get the weather dead on a week ahead, but 12 hours?? A piece of seaweed could have done better. Clearly you have not understood the Met Office warnings properly. It said most places will miss the storms altogether and stay dry. They did not go for wall to wall storms. Even the auto site forecasts were dry (mainly). Now go away and come back when you understand a bit more about meteorology and the nature of convection - thank you. Also I am not sure now that BBC weather get their forecast from the Met Office any more they were meant to be moving over to using MeteoGroup. Stephen? --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com My take on this is that 'Warnings' should be issued only for something that is expected to happen. In my ideal world the current large 'Warning' area should be a 'Watch' area. The 'Warnings' should be issued and updated on an hour-by-hour basis referring only to individual storms or clusters of storms and restricted to those localities at imminent risk, say over the next 2 hours. The 'Convective SIGMETs' issued by the US National Weather Service are an excellent example of this, as are the tornado warnings. In other words, in thundery situation, I think the 'Warnings' should take the form of 'Nowcasts' updated hourly. My experience is that I am very seldom affected by severe weather on the occasions when a blanket 'Warning' is issued covering the part of the country where I happen to be. This frequent 'cry wolf' situation has a huge negative impact on the reputation of the Severe Weather Warning service. People of my acquaintance in this part of the country largely ignore severe weather warnings because of this. I appreciate the forecasting difficulty in the present situation where there is considerable potential for development. However, we have had a 'Warning' in force for here since 6 a.m. but, so far, there hasn't been any hint of shower activity in the area. A 'Watch' would have been much more appropriate than a 'Warning'. Just my tuppence-worth :-) -- Norman Lynagh Tideswell, Derbyshire 303m a.s.l. http://peakdistrictweather.org Twitter: @TideswellWeathr |
#7
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On 06/07/17 13:38, Will Hand wrote:
On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 09:55:03 +0000 (UTC) d wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 10:49:31 +0100 Will Hand wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 08:53:06 +0000 (UTC) d wrote: Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a substantial part of london and the southwest. [looks out the window] Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in cambridgshire and calais. And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then whats the point of them? Idiot. Very erudite. Got anything further to add or is that your contribution for the day and you need to go lie down now? FWIW I dragged around a useless umbrella and I suspect some farmers and event managers are a bit put out too. No one expects them to get the weather dead on a week ahead, but 12 hours?? A piece of seaweed could have done better. Clearly you have not understood the Met Office warnings properly. It said most places will miss the storms altogether and stay dry. They did not go for wall to wall storms. Even the auto site forecasts were dry (mainly). Now go away and come back when you understand a bit more about meteorology and the nature of convection - thank you. Also I am not sure now that BBC weather get their forecast from the Met Office any more they were meant to be moving over to using MeteoGroup. Stephen? I don't know about other models but GFS has been forecasting an area of rain for SE England for the past week. Initially, it was due mainly during Friday but gradually backtracked to Thursday. I had a dental appointment this morning and, going by yesterday's GFS, I was expecting to be needing my mackintosh (I'm a bit twitchy about using an umbrella during a thunderstorm). -- Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer] Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/ “Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just inevitable.” [The Doctor] |
#8
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On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 13:38:19 +0100
Will Hand wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 09:55:03 +0000 (UTC) wrote: Very erudite. Got anything further to add or is that your contribution for the day and you need to go lie down now? FWIW I dragged around a useless umbrella and I suspect some farmers and event managers are a bit put out too. No one expects them to get the weather dead on a week ahead, but 12 hours?? A piece of seaweed could have done better. Clearly you have not understood the Met Office warnings properly. It said most places will miss the storms altogether and stay dry. They did not go for wall I don't know what the warnings were, I simply watched a number of forecasts both broadcast and the online map. They all showed rain and storms over a significant part of the southeast. The rain graphics arn't a probability map, they're where they expect rain to fall with a high certainty. They weren't slightly wrong, they were completely arse about face wrong. to wall storms. Even the auto site forecasts were dry (mainly). Now go away and come back when you understand a bit more about meteorology and the nature of convection - thank you. Also I am not sure now that BBC weather get their Spare me your feable attempts at being patronising, there are far better practioners than you at it on usenet. And as for the "nature of convection", yes, it might be chaotic and I wouldn't expect them to be bang on the money but to predict a large swathe of storms over an area 80 miles wide and then we get *none at all* leads me to believe theres a problem with either their models or measurements. -- Spud |
#9
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On 6 Jul 2017 13:50:14 GMT
"Norman Lynagh" wrote: Will Hand wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 09:55:03 +0000 (UTC) d wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 10:49:31 +0100 Will Hand wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 08:53:06 +0000 (UTC) d wrote: Even 12 hours ago the BBC weather was predicting rain and storms over a substantial part of london and the southwest. [looks out the window] Blue sky. And looking at the rainfall radar the nearest rain is in cambridgshire and calais. And this isn't the first time. If all their expertise and their very expensive supercomputer can't even get a forecast right 12 hours ahead then whats the point of them? Idiot. Very erudite. Got anything further to add or is that your contribution for the day and you need to go lie down now? FWIW I dragged around a useless umbrella and I suspect some farmers and event managers are a bit put out too. No one expects them to get the weather dead on a week ahead, but 12 hours?? A piece of seaweed could have done better. Clearly you have not understood the Met Office warnings properly. It said most places will miss the storms altogether and stay dry. They did not go for wall to wall storms. Even the auto site forecasts were dry (mainly). Now go away and come back when you understand a bit more about meteorology and the nature of convection - thank you. Also I am not sure now that BBC weather get their forecast from the Met Office any more they were meant to be moving over to using MeteoGroup. Stephen? --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com My take on this is that 'Warnings' should be issued only for something that is expected to happen. In my ideal world the current large 'Warning' area should be a 'Watch' area. The 'Warnings' should be issued and updated on an hour-by-hour basis referring only to individual storms or clusters of storms and restricted to those localities at imminent risk, say over the next 2 hours. The 'Convective SIGMETs' issued by the US National Weather Service are an excellent example of this, as are the tornado warnings. In other words, in thundery situation, I think the 'Warnings' should take the form of 'Nowcasts' updated hourly. My experience is that I am very seldom affected by severe weather on the occasions when a blanket 'Warning' is issued covering the part of the country where I happen to be. This frequent 'cry wolf' situation has a huge negative impact on the reputation of the Severe Weather Warning service. People of my acquaintance in this part of the country largely ignore severe weather warnings because of this. I appreciate the forecasting difficulty in the present situation where there is considerable potential for development. However, we have had a 'Warning' in force for here since 6 a.m. but, so far, there hasn't been any hint of shower activity in the area. A 'Watch' would have been much more appropriate than a 'Warning'. Just my tuppence-worth :-) A yellow warning is meant to be a watch or a heads-up. Amber is a proper warning in the old fashioned sense. Will -- |
#10
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On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 15:39:11 +0000 (UTC)
d wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 13:38:19 +0100 Will Hand wrote: On Thu, 6 Jul 2017 09:55:03 +0000 (UTC) wrote: Very erudite. Got anything further to add or is that your contribution for the day and you need to go lie down now? FWIW I dragged around a useless umbrella and I suspect some farmers and event managers are a bit put out too. No one expects them to get the weather dead on a week ahead, but 12 hours?? A piece of seaweed could have done better. Clearly you have not understood the Met Office warnings properly. It said most places will miss the storms altogether and stay dry. They did not go for wall I don't know what the warnings were, I simply watched a number of forecasts both broadcast and the online map. They all showed rain and storms over a significant part of the southeast. The rain graphics arn't a probability map, they're where they expect rain to fall with a high certainty. They weren't slightly wrong, they were completely arse about face wrong. to wall storms. Even the auto site forecasts were dry (mainly). Now go away and come back when you understand a bit more about meteorology and the nature of convection - thank you. Also I am not sure now that BBC weather get their Spare me your feable attempts at being patronising, there are far better practioners than you at it on usenet. And as for the "nature of convection", yes, it might be chaotic and I wouldn't expect them to be bang on the money but to predict a large swathe of storms over an area 80 miles wide and then we get *none at all* leads me to believe theres a problem with either their models or measurements. Mr Hindsight the best forecaster in the world. Now go and pick some spuds. Will -- --- This email has been checked for viruses by AVG. http://www.avg.com |
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