http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

how often does a 74 to 110mph system get beyond 40 degrees north?

Bertha did a pretty good job in August 2014. Caused a mass exodus from campsites, and wiped out the final day of the Boardmaster at Newquay.

Graham
Penzance

On 14/08/2017 08:54, N_Cook wrote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

how often does a 74 to 110mph system get beyond 40 degrees north?

I see they've now knocked it back to an S rather H above 40 deg N.

On 14/08/2017 12:06, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 08:54, N_Cook wrote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

how often does a 74 to 110mph system get beyond 40 degrees north?

I see they've now knocked it back to an S rather H above 40 deg N.

Up to 45 deg N , H 75mph system , heading for Iceland, projected track
currently, or mid Iceland/Scotland on GFS and Reading ,Navgem,Gem &MetO
going for N Scotland .
2006 ex-hurricane Gordon with the mid Iceland/Scotland track induced,
despite closest approach of 480 miles a .5m surge in the English
Channel. 21/22 Aug 2017 is, for summertime, a period of unusually high
spring tides.

On 16/08/17 08:51, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 12:06, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 08:54, N_Cook wrote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

how often does a 74 to 110mph system get beyond 40 degrees north?

I see they've now knocked it back to an S rather H above 40 deg N.

Up to 45 deg N , H 75mph system , heading for Iceland, projected track
currently, or mid Iceland/Scotland on GFS and Reading ,Navgem,Gem &MetO
going for N Scotland .
2006 ex-hurricane Gordon with the mid Iceland/Scotland track induced,
despite closest approach of 480 miles a .5m surge in the English
Channel. 21/22 Aug 2017 is, for summertime, a period of unusually high
spring tides.

The GFS 00Z forecast of Gert tracking ESE across N Scotland into the
North Sea on the 21st could be troublesome if it happens to be correct
since 21st is a new moon.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

On Wednesday, August 16, 2017 at 9:06:52 AM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 16/08/17 08:51, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 12:06, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 08:54, N_Cook wrote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

how often does a 74 to 110mph system get beyond 40 degrees north?

I see they've now knocked it back to an S rather H above 40 deg N.

Up to 45 deg N , H 75mph system , heading for Iceland, projected track
currently, or mid Iceland/Scotland on GFS and Reading ,Navgem,Gem &MetO
going for N Scotland .
2006 ex-hurricane Gordon with the mid Iceland/Scotland track induced,
despite closest approach of 480 miles a .5m surge in the English
Channel. 21/22 Aug 2017 is, for summertime, a period of unusually high
spring tides.

The GFS 00Z forecast of Gert tracking ESE across N Scotland into the
North Sea on the 21st could be troublesome if it happens to be correct
since 21st is a new moon.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

Biggest tides not until 23rd though, not particularly big on 21st.

Magic Seaweed, which is partly based on GFS, shows nothing of note swell wise http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell

Graham
Penzance

On 16/08/2017 09:06, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 16/08/17 08:51, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 12:06, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 08:54, N_Cook wrote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

how often does a 74 to 110mph system get beyond 40 degrees north?

I see they've now knocked it back to an S rather H above 40 deg N.

Up to 45 deg N , H 75mph system , heading for Iceland, projected
track currently, or mid Iceland/Scotland on GFS and Reading
,Navgem,Gem &MetO going for N Scotland .
2006 ex-hurricane Gordon with the mid Iceland/Scotland track induced,
despite closest approach of 480 miles a .5m surge in the English
Channel. 21/22 Aug 2017 is, for summertime, a period of unusually high
spring tides.

The GFS 00Z forecast of Gert tracking ESE across N Scotland into the
North Sea on the 21st could be troublesome if it happens to be correct
since 21st is a new moon.


You don't often see the UK in these Florida processed cones of influence
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

NHC FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 36.0N 68.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 37.7N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 40.0N 58.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 43.2N 50.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 47.0N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0600Z 54.0N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0600Z 55.5N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 57.5N 12.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

GFS 06:00 run has sustained 50mph for NI and south Scotland am of 21 Aug

On Wednesday, August 16, 2017 at 11:40:17 AM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, August 16, 2017 at 9:06:52 AM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 16/08/17 08:51, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 12:06, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 08:54, N_Cook wrote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

how often does a 74 to 110mph system get beyond 40 degrees north?

I see they've now knocked it back to an S rather H above 40 deg N.

Up to 45 deg N , H 75mph system , heading for Iceland, projected track
currently, or mid Iceland/Scotland on GFS and Reading ,Navgem,Gem &MetO
going for N Scotland .
2006 ex-hurricane Gordon with the mid Iceland/Scotland track induced,
despite closest approach of 480 miles a .5m surge in the English
Channel. 21/22 Aug 2017 is, for summertime, a period of unusually high
spring tides.

The GFS 00Z forecast of Gert tracking ESE across N Scotland into the
North Sea on the 21st could be troublesome if it happens to be correct
since 21st is a new moon.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

Biggest tides not until 23rd though, not particularly big on 21st.

Magic Seaweed, which is partly based on GFS, shows nothing of note swell wise http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell

Graham
Penzance

Mind you, it's the 22nd when there's more of a N Sea surge setup, and the tides are bigger that day.

Still not much of an actual swell forecast though.

Not much sign of a good Atlantic swell for a while either, basically just a mess. http://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/ Fast moving ex hurricanes affecting a very limited area normally just aren't up to it. A nice, large area stationary low in mid Atlantic with a UK ridge is what's needed, and that has been rather lacking. Still, just OK for the Boardmasters, if very messy http://boardmasters-86b4.kxcdn.com/i...highlights.jpg

Graham
Penzance .

On 16/08/2017 18:58, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, August 16, 2017 at 11:40:17 AM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, August 16, 2017 at 9:06:52 AM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 16/08/17 08:51, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 12:06, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 08:54, N_Cook wrote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

how often does a 74 to 110mph system get beyond 40 degrees north?

I see they've now knocked it back to an S rather H above 40 deg N.

Up to 45 deg N , H 75mph system , heading for Iceland, projected track
currently, or mid Iceland/Scotland on GFS and Reading ,Navgem,Gem &MetO
going for N Scotland .
2006 ex-hurricane Gordon with the mid Iceland/Scotland track induced,
despite closest approach of 480 miles a .5m surge in the English
Channel. 21/22 Aug 2017 is, for summertime, a period of unusually high
spring tides.

The GFS 00Z forecast of Gert tracking ESE across N Scotland into the
North Sea on the 21st could be troublesome if it happens to be correct
since 21st is a new moon.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

Biggest tides not until 23rd though, not particularly big on 21st.

Magic Seaweed, which is partly based on GFS, shows nothing of note swell wise http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell

Graham
Penzance

Mind you, it's the 22nd when there's more of a N Sea surge setup, and the tides are bigger that day.

Still not much of an actual swell forecast though.

Not much sign of a good Atlantic swell for a while either, basically just a mess. http://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/ Fast moving ex hurricanes affecting a very limited area normally just aren't up to it. A nice, large area stationary low in mid Atlantic with a UK ridge is what's needed, and that has been rather lacking. Still, just OK for the Boardmasters, if very messy http://boardmasters-86b4.kxcdn.com/i...highlights.jpg

Graham
Penzance .


Model projections swinging about a lot still.
Was this a "SAS" sewage situation?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-40946139

On Wednesday, August 16, 2017 at 8:54:12 PM UTC+1, N_Cook wrote:
On 16/08/2017 18:58, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, August 16, 2017 at 11:40:17 AM UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
On Wednesday, August 16, 2017 at 9:06:52 AM UTC+1, Graham P Davis wrote:
On 16/08/17 08:51, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 12:06, N_Cook wrote:
On 14/08/2017 08:54, N_Cook wrote:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3...?cone#contents

how often does a 74 to 110mph system get beyond 40 degrees north?

I see they've now knocked it back to an S rather H above 40 deg N.

Up to 45 deg N , H 75mph system , heading for Iceland, projected track
currently, or mid Iceland/Scotland on GFS and Reading ,Navgem,Gem &MetO
going for N Scotland .
2006 ex-hurricane Gordon with the mid Iceland/Scotland track induced,
despite closest approach of 480 miles a .5m surge in the English
Channel. 21/22 Aug 2017 is, for summertime, a period of unusually high
spring tides.

The GFS 00Z forecast of Gert tracking ESE across N Scotland into the
North Sea on the 21st could be troublesome if it happens to be correct
since 21st is a new moon.

--
Graham P Davis, Bracknell, Berks. [Retd meteorologist/programmer]
Web-site: http://www.scarlet-jade.com/
“Like sewage, smartphones, and Donald Trump, some things are just
inevitable.� [The Doctor]

Biggest tides not until 23rd though, not particularly big on 21st.

Magic Seaweed, which is partly based on GFS, shows nothing of note swell wise http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-S.../1/?type=swell

Graham
Penzance

Mind you, it's the 22nd when there's more of a N Sea surge setup, and the tides are bigger that day.

Still not much of an actual swell forecast though.

Not much sign of a good Atlantic swell for a while either, basically just a mess. http://magicseaweed.com/Sennen-Surf-Report/4/ Fast moving ex hurricanes affecting a very limited area normally just aren't up to it. A nice, large area stationary low in mid Atlantic with a UK ridge is what's needed, and that has been rather lacking. Still, just OK for the Boardmasters, if very messy http://boardmasters-86b4.kxcdn.com/i...highlights.jpg

Graham
Penzance .


Model projections swinging about a lot still.
Was this a "SAS" sewage situation?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-40946139

It would also appear that he had probably been in contact with someone else with the condition before attending the festival.

However, this is a disgrace. http://www.cornwalllive.com/sewage-d...ail/story.html

Sewage 'overflow' discharges at Gwithian are becoming the norm every time there's a sharp shower. There were no problems until the famouse 'clean sweep' upgrade.

There's a very useful SAS Sewage Discharge App. https://www.sas.org.uk/safer-seas-service/

Graham
Penzance