On Fri, 17 Oct 2003 22:11:23 +0100, Will in
wrote:
snip
This winter. How do you start to forecast with extremely unusual global
circulations breaking out ? It could be a normal winter, it could be record
breaking warmth or another 62/63, in my view all of those are up for grabs. Take
your pick, you've probably got more chance of winning the lottery :-)
snip

I can only agree with you, Will. In the past few autumns the odds seemed
heavily stacked in favour of a mild winter, but this time I feel the odds
have changed somewhat. As you say elsewhere, no-one has a real clue about
what will happen, but I'd suggest the probability (and that is all we can
talk in terms of!!) is lower now for a mild winter. The circulation is
just so odd ATM.

--
Mike posted to uk.sci.weather 18/10/2003 10:15:31 UTC
Coleraine
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"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...

I have noted over the past 40 years that most blocked Octobers are
followed by mild winters. There are a few, but not many, exceptions.
Yuk
Cheers
Paul
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

I had always thought you looked to a cold and wet November as the main sign
of an approaching harsh winter Paul?
I have mentioned before on several occasions that if the warm summer was
anything to go by, Scotland is in line for a particularly snowy winter. But
the forecast snow for next week is uncomfortably similar to this time last
year.
A repeat of November 1985 would be nice.
If's and But's
Alex.

In article , Tom
Presutti writes
Hi Paul

I disagree with this, if anything blocked Octobers can produce the
harshest winters.

October 1946 was very dry and was followed a severe winter with a very
severe snowy February.

October 1947 was also very dry but was followed by a mild winter with
brief cold very snowy spell at the end.

October 1950 was also very dry and produced a cold winter with a very
cold and very snowy December producing the goods(CET 1.2c). Jan and
Feb were near average and wet.

October 1951 was blocked and was followed by a rather cold winter with
a rather cold Jan and a rather cold Feb(CET's of 2.7 and 3.4c) with
some snow around, especially in the North.

October 1955 was blocked but was followed by the cold winter of
1955/56. Although that winter started mild, it ended with a severe
cold February with a CET of -0.2c!

October 1953 was a dry one and was followed by the average winter of
1953/54. Although December was very mild, Jan and Feb were on the cold
side with CET's below 3c.

October 1956 was blocked but was followed by the boring mild winter of
1956/57 with no real cold spells to note.

October 1962 was very dry and was followed up by the coldest winter of
the 20th century!

October 1965 was dry and was followed the rather mild winter of
1965/1966. However November 65 produced some early cold snowy spells
and the winter itself had a severe spell during January.

October 1969 was exceptionally dry and produced a consistantly cold
and snowy winter with parts of the N Midlands northwards producing
bucketloads of snow and this continued right through to May!

October 1972 was blocked and produced the rather mild and uneventful
winter of 1972/73.

October 1977 was blocked and produced an interesting winter in
1977/78. December was very mild, January average but with some snow
around and a cold February with some severe blizzards, particularly
southern and western areas.

October 1978 was blocked and produced a very cold to severe winter in
1978/79 with some places having continued lying snow through January
and February.

I don't think any Octobers in the 1980's had rainfall below 60% and 2
occured in the 1990's which I think was 1993/94 and 1995/96. The
winter of 1993/94 was mild up to February, then it turned cold with
some snow. The winter of 1995/96 was a decent winter on the whole with
a cold December and February with the last week of Jan also seeing
significant snowfall in places. Most Octobers since have had well
above average rainfall..

So overall, I have to say that this October is a refreshing change
from the very wet ones seen below and if most of the above winters are
anything to go by, there should be a good chance of some interest. Of
course though this only one very small part of the jigsaw and there
are many other things needed to take into account. The weather
patterns seen during the past 12 months or so are different to
anything thats ever happened during the last century making this
winter an exciting but difficult one to forecast.


Best Regards

Tom

Tom, thank you for your most comprehensive reply. My initial post was
hardly worthy of it. I would love despite my age, to see a proper winter
spell. Many of us would, my grounds based on an exceptionally cold (528
line forecast to be this far south) leads me to think otherwise still.
I am not really refering to October 'dryness' , or October mean
temperatures. I am referring to winter situations though. If this
set-up (18 October 2003 plus t+48 progs) was to occur in January then it
may well be very snowy indeed. I admit I don't know.
Cheers
Paul
--
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In article , Alex Stephens
Jnr writes

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...

I have noted over the past 40 years that most blocked Octobers are
followed by mild winters. There are a few, but not many, exceptions.
Yuk
Cheers
Paul
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

I had always thought you looked to a cold and wet November as the main sign
of an approaching harsh winter Paul?
I have mentioned before on several occasions that if the warm summer was
anything to go by, Scotland is in line for a particularly snowy winter. But
the forecast snow for next week is uncomfortably similar to this time last
year.
A repeat of November 1985 would be nice.
If's and But's
Alex.
Alex I forecast on many criteria but cold wet Novembers are perhaps the
main indicators (in my view) of a colder than average winter.
The October 'winter' situations I have not got detailed hard facts on,
I hope my posting was taken therefore as a feeling rather more than a
researched forecast.
As Will has pointed out thing are changing, goal posts have been moved
in ways we don't understand yet.
October blocking is not unusual, but with the degree of coldness
combined this month is. Last winter was not wildly mild - this one may
be.
Not the winter forecast !
Cheers
Paul
--
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oh I see Paul! My point though is that at least these type of weather
patterns are actually occuring and therefore must be a rare number of
Octobers that have seen this. I don't even think we have seen 20% of
the monthly average yet which is so unlike the Octobers of the late
1990's and the early 2000's.

I'll be looking to your winter forecast with interest when it is
available as I always do every year :-)


Tom

In article , Tom
Presutti writes
Oh I see Paul! My point though is that at least these type of weather
patterns are actually occuring and therefore must be a rare number of
Octobers that have seen this. I don't even think we have seen 20% of
the monthly average yet which is so unlike the Octobers of the late
1990's and the early 2000's.

I'll be looking to your winter forecast with interest when it is
available as I always do every year :-)
Tom, I am not going to issue this year until the end of November (as
opposed to 14th). I shall use my usual method of similarities and
periodicies. Thank you for your post though it made me think.
This area is getting tighter now with everyone fighting for the 'No -
man's land'.
I don't like varying too far from the norm as a rule. I admit the
'normal winter' may contain severe and mild spells if you take it
purely on temperature. What I am therefore really after is and
indication as to whether severe spells will occur - at least at times.
I have long since given up any hope of a 62/63 or 46/47 winter but a
78/79 may still be a possibility.
But I have drifted from my original thread, despite your mail I still
expect a dominant Azores/Spain/Italy high to dominate. But I have put
no work in yet! And that is what is really needed.
Regards
Paul
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------