I know this has been raised before but it is driving me to distraction. I am referring to the discrepancies between the met office regional text forecasts and the local graphical forecasts. I can understand small differences but half the time they are so completely different as to make the site useless. This has been a running sore for as long as I can remember. It is particularly absurd for south east England which has little local variation and so even less excuse for such grotesquely large discrepancies. Infuriating.. Just to take a small example, I am trying to plan which day to work on our allotment. Text forecast for Saturday “mainly sunny�. Graphical forecast for Hampstead cloud icons all day and not a single sun icon.. Hopeless.

wrote:

I know this has been raised before but it is driving me to
distraction. I am referring to the discrepancies between the met
office regional text forecasts and the local graphical forecasts. I
can understand small differences but half the time they are so
completely different as to make the site useless. This has been a
running sore for as long as I can remember. It is particularly absurd
for south east England which has little local variation and so even
less excuse for such grotesquely large discrepancies. Infuriating.
Just to take a small example, I am trying to plan which day to work
on our allotment. Text forecast for Saturday “mainly sunny�.
Graphical forecast for Hampstead cloud icons all day and not a single
sun icon. Hopeless.

I know the feeling, David! Regional text forecasts are generated by
human forecasters. The site-specific forecasts are computer-generated
with no human input i.e. they are raw computer output which, in my
opinion, is not sufficiently reliable to be offered as end-user
material. In other words they are not fit for purpose.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

In message , Norman Lynagh
writes
wrote:

I know this has been raised before but it is driving me to
distraction. I am referring to the discrepancies between the met
office regional text forecasts and the local graphical forecasts. I
can understand small differences but half the time they are so
completely different as to make the site useless. This has been a
running sore for as long as I can remember. It is particularly absurd
for south east England which has little local variation and so even
less excuse for such grotesquely large discrepancies. Infuriating.
Just to take a small example, I am trying to plan which day to work
on our allotment. Text forecast for Saturday “mainly sunny�.
Graphical forecast for Hampstead cloud icons all day and not a single
sun icon. Hopeless.

I know the feeling, David! Regional text forecasts are generated by
human forecasters. The site-specific forecasts are computer-generated
with no human input i.e. they are raw computer output which, in my
opinion, is not sufficiently reliable to be offered as end-user
material. In other words they are not fit for purpose.


Where they do sometimes score over the human-generated forecast is for
the next few hours, presumably because the computer forecasts are being
frequently updated but the human-generated ones are only updated two or
three times a day.
--
John Hall
"It is a very sad thing that nowadays there is so little useless
information."
Oscar Wilde (1854-1900)

I know the feeling, David! Regional text forecasts are generated by
human forecasters. The site-specific forecasts are computer-generated
with no human input i.e. they are raw computer output which, in my
opinion, is not sufficiently reliable to be offered as end-user
material. In other words they are not fit for purpose.

--
Norman Lynagh

I can only refer to my past experience with MeteoGroup but the site-specific forecasts were driven partly by human forecaster edits. That's what the lead-forecaster did. They also responded automatically to past performance through regression relationships to past observations, bias checking, and sat and radar imagery of course. Be grateful that the temperatures you see posted on weather forecast graphics are model output statistics (i.e. moderated in the above way) and not raw model output! Another issue is how best to convert hourly weather codes to all-day weather symbols, such as we see on the outlook section of TV weather forecasts and online. It is more difficult than it sounds!

I'm not trying to play-down any discrepancies and how confusing they may be to users. Surely the best thing we can do to ascertain London' sunshine for Saturday is to look at model output showing cloud cover - the explanation probably lies in the fact that cloud cover will be highly variable here on Saturday.

Julian

I've checked the ECMWF cloud amount for London on Saturday and it shows variations from 1 to 6 to 3 oktas (09, 12 and 15h), suggesting Cu/Scu spreading out around middle of the day. MO global gives 6, 8 and anything between 2-6 oktas later - rather cloudier overall but both indicating variability from hour to hour. Of course, at this time-scale these figures are only indicative of the whole day really - MeteoGroup's data at the BBC Weather sites shows the sunny intervals symbol throughout the day and (thank goodness.... this tallies with the text 'sunny intervals'.

I agree that at shorter timescales it is important to differentiate between cloudy and sunny areas of the country - at this time of year and in the winter it can make a huge difference to the feel of the day. Pointless to pretend we can do this 2+ days ahead with cloud varying semi-randomly.

Julian

Thanks all! Points well noted. I might stick to the BBC going forward.

I just have to give this particularly fine example of the gen

Long range UK text forecast 9-16 April

“The beginning of this period looks unsettled with Atlantic weather systems bringing frequent bands of wet and windy conditions across the UK from the south or southwest. Weather systems will likely be interspersed by brighter and showery interludes, with the best chance of any fine weather in eastern parts. There remains a chance of wintry showers during any bright and showery interludes over northern hills. Temperatures likely around average, though there is the potential for some warmer days in the east.“

So unsettled with frequent bands of rain and average temps. Now for the south east we have “the best chance of any fine weather� (note “any�) and “the potential for some warmer days� which might suggest a bit of sun between the rain and temps in the mid teens.

Meanwhile the site specific forecast St James Park

9 April 21c full sun
10 April 23c full sun
11 April 22c full sun

Yes I know it’s a week away but come on !!!

On Thursday, April 2, 2020 at 9:20:16 AM UTC+1, Norman Lynagh wrote:
wrote:

I know this has been raised before but it is driving me to
distraction. I am referring to the discrepancies between the met
office regional text forecasts and the local graphical forecasts. I
can understand small differences but half the time they are so
completely different as to make the site useless. This has been a
running sore for as long as I can remember. It is particularly absurd
for south east England which has little local variation and so even
less excuse for such grotesquely large discrepancies. Infuriating.
Just to take a small example, I am trying to plan which day to work
on our allotment. Text forecast for Saturday “mainly sunny�.
Graphical forecast for Hampstead cloud icons all day and not a single
sun icon. Hopeless.

I know the feeling, David! Regional text forecasts are generated by
human forecasters. The site-specific forecasts are computer-generated
with no human input i.e. they are raw computer output which, in my
opinion, is not sufficiently reliable to be offered as end-user
material. In other words they are not fit for purpose.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
twitter: @TideswellWeathr

This thread isn't good for my blood pressure. I mean why do the 5 day forecasts even exist, they haven't a clue of the current weather half the time! Being stuck in a thunderstorm when most of Cornwall & SW Devon was wet and the forecast was still 5% rain didn't amuse me. I mean, is there no input from real weather?

Currently the forecast has been for a cloudy day 1 or 2 days off for days, still waiting. When I went to bed last night there was a 40% chance of rain at 09:00. Another beautiful morning https://www.aspects-holidays.co.uk/webcams/mousehole Sun's currently due to come out 14:00, just had coffee sitting in the sunshine in the garden. OK it's cloudy elsewhere, but that's irrelevant for a postcode forecast. NO point having a post code forecast unless there is the ability & interest to do it properly.

AND as for the forecasters, how often do you hear them say (for the SW anywhere) sun to the lee of high ground, when 9 times out of 10 it's the reverse. Even in a moist SW airflow beaches are often bright, the thicker cloud developing as the air is forced up over the cliffs & moors. Over the year windward coasts are the sunniest, in summer windward coasts are hugely sunnier than other parts. Just look at the MetO average monthly sunshine maps. The sunniest spots being places like the Lands End peninsula, & towards Portland, both to the lee of high ground I assume.

AND as their geographical knowledge, in one recent text part for the SW "Most parts with see good spells of sunshine but it may be cloudier in Devon, Cornwall & parts of Somerset."

AND as for giving Camborne as 'recent' weather for Penzance when they are on opposite coasts and frequently have very different weather & up to 10C on occasion during late Spring early Summer.

AND why give a choice of 3 different forecasts when you type in Sennen (Sennen, Sennen Cove & Sennen Cove (Beach)) when a forecast for Sennen doesn't exist

AND . . . NO surf, not that it matters!

That's better!

Graham
Penzance

On Friday, 3 April 2020 09:25:04 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
This thread isn't good for my blood pressure. I mean why do the 5 day forecasts even exist, they haven't a clue of the current weather half the time! Being stuck in a thunderstorm when most of Cornwall & SW Devon was wet and the forecast was still 5% rain didn't amuse me. I mean, is there no input from real weather?

The 5 day forecasts exist because customers want them. It's not the Met Office who dictate what is offered to the public - it is a body called the PWSCG. See https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-u.../pws/pwscg/tor

I believe the shortcomings of spot forecasts based on automated unrefined model data were pointed out at the time.

The Met Office have to give the PWSCG what they want, as they fund it. If you want a pink car with automatic transmission and aircon, the car dealer isn't going to question your specification. They may advise you that automatic transmission isn't really necessary for motorway travelling and that pink attracts the seagulls - but at the end of the day it's the customer's choice.

--
Freddie
Dorrington
Shropshire
115m AMSL
http://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/
Stats for the month so far: https://www.hosiene.co.uk/weather/st...cs/latest.xlsx

On Friday, April 3, 2020 at 10:51:20 AM UTC+1, Freddie wrote:
On Friday, 3 April 2020 09:25:04 UTC+1, Graham Easterling wrote:
This thread isn't good for my blood pressure. I mean why do the 5 day forecasts even exist, they haven't a clue of the current weather half the time! Being stuck in a thunderstorm when most of Cornwall & SW Devon was wet and the forecast was still 5% rain didn't amuse me. I mean, is there no input from real weather?

The 5 day forecasts exist because customers want them.

Not this customer! Seriously, I agree basically with what you say, I was clearly having a rant. However, I do feel the MetO put no effort into getting it right.

I didn't realise that pink attracts seagulls, not that I frequently wear pink, or have a pink car. Best to avoid strawberry ice cream than, go for rum & raisin.

Stunning in Penzance this morning, a couple of photos here from my permitted exercise https://groups.google.com/forum/?hl=...te/iNYF3BF8Qfw

Graham
Penzance

This has to be the all time winner for the SE England regional prize:

“Outlook for Monday to Wednesday:
.....Temperatures generally close to or slightly above normal.�

St James Park:
Monday 18
Tuesday 21
Wednesday 24

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