Sir James Bevan says extreme flooding in UK indicates urgent need for change if humanity is to survive
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...nt-agency-head

On Wednesday, 24 February 2021 at 21:40:17 UTC, wrote:
Sir James Bevan says extreme flooding in UK indicates urgent need for change if humanity is to survive
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...nt-agency-head

I'd pay him more attention if he were a qualified meteorologist or even just a scientist but as far as I can see he isn't.

Tudor Hughes.

On 24/02/2021 21:40, Alastair B. McDonald wrote:
Sir James Bevan says extreme flooding in UK indicates urgent need for change if humanity is to survive
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...nt-agency-head


A recent ch4 prog visited Polperro and mentioned their sea-gate that I
was not aware of.
Looking for more technical detail, such as
https://www.ice.org.uk/ICEDevelopmentWebPortal/media/Documents/Regions/UK%20Regions/Polperro-Tidal-Gate-Repair.pdf
I was surprised to see only an expected lifespan of 30 years ,
presumably because of extra storm damage , similar to what knocked out
the earlier one in 2014. Rather than the somewhat minimal sea level rise
in 30 years (assuming there is not sudden greening of Greenland and
Antartica that is)

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

Alastair B. McDonald wrote:

Sir James Bevan says extreme flooding in UK indicates urgent need for change
if humanity is to survive
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...is-hitting-wor
st-case-scenarios-warns-environment-agency-head

Good to see someone in a position of some authority stepping up to the plate
and telling it how it is. The crux of the problem is that the damage is already
done. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is at a level that would have been
unthinkable 50 years ago. Reducing emissions to net-zero by 2050 or whenever,
even if achieved globally, won't go 25% of the way towards solving the problem.
Sadly, I see that the inevitable outcome will be that humanity will have to
adapt, without planning, to a very different world within the next few decades.
As I said elsewhere recently this is increasingly worrying the younger you are.
It's all too easy to visualise how hundreds of people might die as a result of
climate change before the end of the century and the refugee problem has
potential to become orders of magnitude greater than anything we have seen so
far. This is a bit of a slow-burner that is unlikely to have a happy ending. It
will likely reach a scale in the relatively near future that will make the
Covid-19 pandemic seem like a side-show. Part of me is glad that I won't be
around for long enough to see how this eventually pans out and part of me would
like to see how it does all evolve. We should all fear for our grand-children
and their children, though.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

Norman Lynagh wrote:

Alastair B. McDonald wrote:

Sir James Bevan says extreme flooding in UK indicates urgent need for change
if humanity is to survive
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...isis-hitting-w
or st-case-scenarios-warns-environment-agency-head

Good to see someone in a position of some authority stepping up to the plate
and telling it how it is. The crux of the problem is that the damage is
already done. The atmospheric CO2 concentration is at a level that would have
been unthinkable 50 years ago. Reducing emissions to net-zero by 2050 or
whenever, even if achieved globally, won't go 25% of the way towards solving
the problem. Sadly, I see that the inevitable outcome will be that humanity
will have to adapt, without planning, to a very different world within the
next few decades. As I said elsewhere recently this is increasingly worrying
the younger you are. It's all too easy to visualise how hundreds of people
might die as a result of climate change before the end of the century and the
refugee problem has potential to become orders of magnitude greater than
anything we have seen so far. This is a bit of a slow-burner that is unlikely
to have a happy ending. It will likely reach a scale in the relatively near
future that will make the Covid-19 pandemic seem like a side-show. Part of me
is glad that I won't be around for long enough to see how this eventually
pans out and part of me would like to see how it does all evolve. We should
all fear for our grand-children and their children, though.

Correction: In the middle of the above paragraph 'hundreds of people' should
read 'hundreds of millions of people'. It makes a difference!

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

I'd pay him more attention if he were a qualified meteorologist or even just a scientist but as far as I can see he isn't.

Tudor Hughes.

Indeed he isn't - he appears to be a Diplomat and former senior civil servant. IMO this is entirely appropriate and effective. This background gives him clout in the corridors of power. He will know how to communicate and influence in order to get the message across.
Are you really implying, Tudor, that as the Chair of a large organisation he is not briefed by scientists incl. meteorologists and hydrologists? Of course he is. The fact that they have been able to convince someone from a different discipline is telling. The problem is the lack of scientists in political circles - eg in the Cabinet.

Maybe you are surprised at the comment about flooding in recent years. I'm not. I'll just throw in one observation - there have been several occasions in the last 2 years when I have been surprised at how high daily rainfalls have been on days when the synoptic situation did not appear to indicate anything unusual. The added warmth of warm conveyor belts (atmospheric rivers, as some like to call them) seems to be a plausible connector to global warming. No doubt academic papers are in preparation that will help us put it into perspective. I'm with Norman in this!

Julian

On 24/02/2021 21:40, Alastair B. McDonald wrote:
Sir James Bevan says extreme flooding in UK indicates urgent need for change if humanity is to survive
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...nt-agency-head


Could someone on this board check the Antarctic section of
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
and confirm whether the daily updates have been stuck on 19 Feb ?
My browser does not like their setup , bounces around , and I can see no
message about problems with the charctic section

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

N_Cook wrote:

On 24/02/2021 21:40, Alastair B. McDonald wrote:
Sir James Bevan says extreme flooding in UK indicates urgent need for
change if humanity is to survive
https://www.theguardian.com/environm...isis-hitting-w
orst-case-scenarios-warns-environment-agency-head


Could someone on this board check the Antarctic section of
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/
and confirm whether the daily updates have been stuck on 19 Feb ?
My browser does not like their setup , bounces around , and I can see no
message about problems with the charctic section

Looks fine to me. Latest date plotted is 24 Feb.

--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.
https://peakdistrictweather.org
Twitter: @TideswellWeathr

On 25/02/2021 16:39, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Looks fine to me. Latest date plotted is 24 Feb.

24 Feb on both the click-on Arctic and Antarctic plots?

My browser shows 24 Feb for the Arctic and 19 Feb for Antarctic plots

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm

On 25/02/2021 16:46, N_Cook wrote:
On 25/02/2021 16:39, Norman Lynagh wrote:
Looks fine to me. Latest date plotted is 24 Feb.

24 Feb on both the click-on Arctic and Antarctic plots?

My browser shows 24 Feb for the Arctic and 19 Feb for Antarctic plots


I closed the browser and reopened, in case of a caching problem, but the
same result of Antarctic update stuck at 19 Feb, not 24 Feb

--
Global sea level rise to 2100 from curve-fitted existing altimetry data
http://diverse.4mg.com/slr.htm