Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

On 24th December, a large depression near Iceland has a trough
stretching SE'wards to the North Sea. There isn't much HP about and
what there is is pushed further south in the Atlantic as the SW portion
of the Iceland-low develops southwards to lie to the SW of Ireland.
It's a time of near-average temperatures and mixed weather for most of
the country.

On 25th December, the depression to the SW and W of the country draws
in milder SW winds with many rain showers and much unsettled weather. A
small wave forms on the S section of the Atlantic depression and this
moves NE'wards towards SW England.

On 26th December, the Atlantic LP is close to W and NW Scotland and the
wave could be somewhere near the Channel. A very unsettled day,
especially when HP is far out in the Atlantic.

On 27th December, the Atlantic HP moves eastwards towards the SW of
the British Isles and the depression to the N of Scotland moves
eastwards towards SW Norway. There is a slow improvement coming into
the SW of the country and rain showers associated with a small
depression in the southern North Sea will move away into the continent.

On 28th December, SW winds still cover the country and an extension of
the Azores HP stretches into Biscay and the Channel. The small
depression yesterday over the North Sea has moved into southern
Scandinavia. Improving weather can be expected along the S coast of
England and weather may improve slowly over the rest of the country as
an induced ridge of HP between the Atlantic and Scandinavian
depressions develops.

On 29th December Britain has at last got a ridge of HP stretching from
S to North to join up with a North Pole HP. It's a time for dryer
weather with night frost early and late - probably some fog, too during
the early hours. The only thing which can spoil the picture is a small
depression hanging around the Holland area which is looking for some
place to go.

30th December, as HP develops from the Azores to Ireland and Wales and
SW Britain, the small depression moves towards the London area from
Holland. The depression begins to draw in continental air along the SE
coast and this could cause some enjoyment for the snow fans. I can't
see the necessary pool of cold air coming over France towards the
North Sea, but I can see some cold air moving from Moscow in the
direction of Poland - a bit too far away I'm afraid.

On 31st December, a depression moves into the area S of Iceland
bringing SW winds back into Scotland. For central areas of the country
a thin belt of HP tries to run from Northern Ireland eastwards to the
HP over the continent. The small depression near Brittany with a
trough down to Spain (our hope for some snow) draws in E winds along
the SE coast. There is a chance of some sleet showers, especially night
and morning, but I feel the temperature will not be sufficiently cold
enough to bring a big downpour of snow during the day, but the chance
cannot be completely ruled out.

On 1st January 2004, a complex depression with possibly two centres
covers Scotland and Ireland. There is a chance of strong W winds coming
into the SW of the country. A day of blustery showers and no more
thoughts of snow as the temperature rises and the snow-bringing
isotherems are pushed back into the continent.

So this year it's a mild one. Only a small window for snow ( on 31st)
and then it's gone during this period.

Cheers, Keith

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

snip

Current thinking suggests it is quite impossible to forecast the weather
in this much detail so far ahead.
I've seen Countryfile forecasts for 5 days ahead that forecast to this
much detail go badly wrong, how can you hope to do this for over
2 month ahead?

What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

Anyone making forecasts on a day by day basis this far out needs to have
their head tested.

The 29th of July 2004 will be hot & sunny with Southerly Winds
probability, rather good ).

Shaun Pudwell,
Warden Bay, Isle-of-Sheppey, Kent.

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

On 24th December, a large depression near Iceland has a trough
stretching SE'wards to the North Sea. There isn't much HP about and
what there is is pushed further south in the Atlantic as the SW portion
of the Iceland-low develops southwards to lie to the SW of Ireland.
It's a time of near-average temperatures and mixed weather for most of
the country.

On 25th December, the depression to the SW and W of the country draws
in milder SW winds with many rain showers and much unsettled weather. A
small wave forms on the S section of the Atlantic depression and this
moves NE'wards towards SW England.

On 26th December, the Atlantic LP is close to W and NW Scotland and the
wave could be somewhere near the Channel. A very unsettled day,
especially when HP is far out in the Atlantic.

On 27th December, the Atlantic HP moves eastwards towards the SW of
the British Isles and the depression to the N of Scotland moves
eastwards towards SW Norway. There is a slow improvement coming into
the SW of the country and rain showers associated with a small
depression in the southern North Sea will move away into the continent.

On 28th December, SW winds still cover the country and an extension of
the Azores HP stretches into Biscay and the Channel. The small
depression yesterday over the North Sea has moved into southern
Scandinavia. Improving weather can be expected along the S coast of
England and weather may improve slowly over the rest of the country as
an induced ridge of HP between the Atlantic and Scandinavian
depressions develops.

On 29th December Britain has at last got a ridge of HP stretching from
S to North to join up with a North Pole HP. It's a time for dryer
weather with night frost early and late - probably some fog, too during
the early hours. The only thing which can spoil the picture is a small
depression hanging around the Holland area which is looking for some
place to go.

30th December, as HP develops from the Azores to Ireland and Wales and
SW Britain, the small depression moves towards the London area from
Holland. The depression begins to draw in continental air along the SE
coast and this could cause some enjoyment for the snow fans. I can't
see the necessary pool of cold air coming over France towards the
North Sea, but I can see some cold air moving from Moscow in the
direction of Poland - a bit too far away I'm afraid.

On 31st December, a depression moves into the area S of Iceland
bringing SW winds back into Scotland. For central areas of the country
a thin belt of HP tries to run from Northern Ireland eastwards to the
HP over the continent. The small depression near Brittany with a
trough down to Spain (our hope for some snow) draws in E winds along
the SE coast. There is a chance of some sleet showers, especially night
and morning, but I feel the temperature will not be sufficiently cold
enough to bring a big downpour of snow during the day, but the chance
cannot be completely ruled out.

On 1st January 2004, a complex depression with possibly two centres
covers Scotland and Ireland. There is a chance of strong W winds coming
into the SW of the country. A day of blustery showers and no more
thoughts of snow as the temperature rises and the snow-bringing
isotherems are pushed back into the continent.

So this year it's a mild one. Only a small window for snow ( on 31st)
and then it's gone during this period.

Cheers, Keith

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...

The 29th of July 2004 will be hot & sunny with Southerly Winds
probability, rather good ).

Though up in NW England I expect the morning to be mainly sunny
but high cloud edging in from the west from a slow moving cold
front will turn the sunshine much more hazy in the afternoon.
Max temp: 24C.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...

The 29th of July 2004 will be hot & sunny with Southerly Winds
probability, rather good ).

Though up in NW England I expect the morning to be mainly sunny
but high cloud edging in from the west from a slow moving cold
front will turn the sunshine much more hazy in the afternoon.
Max temp: 24C.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


Col. It's a wind-up.

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"lawrence jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Col" wrote in message
...

Though up in NW England I expect the morning to be mainly sunny
but high cloud edging in from the west from a slow moving cold
front will turn the sunshine much more hazy in the afternoon.
Max temp: 24C.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


Col. It's a wind-up.

What is?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Col it's all in the runes :-)
At least it's not on a web site with thousands of hits an hour :-)

LOL

Will.
--

" Love begins when judgement ceases "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Col wrote in message ...

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

snip

Current thinking suggests it is quite impossible to forecast the weather
in this much detail so far ahead.
I've seen Countryfile forecasts for 5 days ahead that forecast to this
much detail go badly wrong, how can you hope to do this for over
2 month ahead?

What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"lawrence jenkins" wrote in message
...


Col. It's a wind-up.

but very nicely put together, and it might even be right.:-)

Jim Webster

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message Col, I'm sorry
to have made it so long - and I apologize for any errors in my
English. It's a bit late I suppose

Check the November forecast for yourself and form your own judgement.

Cheers, Keith


It will be interesting to compare over a period how your forecasts do pan
out. To be fair, we ought to also compare a 'conventional' forecast as well,
so provide some sort of control. I suppose we could take the 'Countryfile'
or similar forecast, and just see if you end the year with a better record
than they do.

Jim Webster

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
snip

All these things the method can do. It requires time, and weather is endless.

Col, I'm sorry to have made it so long - and I apologize for any errors in my
English. It's a bit late I suppose

Thanks for the explanation. I'm not sure I understand exactly how you do it,
but I get the gist that it is completely different from 'current thinking'.
I assume that you disbelieve completely in chaos theory and that if only the
forecaster was skilled enough, they could forecast an individual day's
weather pretty much as far into the future as they want?

Also I believe there are times at which the atmosphere is on a 'knife edge'
as to what to do. Say for example during a winter cold spell it is thought
that in 5 days time mild westerlies will break through or then again, they
may not. Chances may be 50:50. What happens at this critical point may
well determine the weather for weeks ahead.
I can't see how your method can take account of this type of event, which
is essentially random.

Check the November forecast for yourself and form your own judgement.

I will save it and see what happens on a day to day basis.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Col" wrote in message
...

"lawrence jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Col" wrote in message
...

Though up in NW England I expect the morning to be mainly sunny
but high cloud edging in from the west from a slow moving cold
front will turn the sunshine much more hazy in the afternoon.
Max temp: 24C.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


Col. It's a wind-up.

What is?


My God it's worked..

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

Hello Col.
Although your questions have been answered some time ago, I'd like to answer
once again, perhaps with a little more hind-sight on my part.

You are right when you say current thinking suggests it is impossible
...........! But I have to ask you - who makes up current thinking?
Obviously the scientific approach to forecasting is paramount and that means
computer forecasting.

And how does computer forecasting work? - well, you take the latest analysis
of the actual weather and project it by some means in a series of successive
charts until you reach the required forecast date. Naturally the further you
go from the real-weather- analysis the worse your forecast will be.
Furthermore, the method is sensitive to error-inputs because these explode
into larger errors the further you calculate.

Now a body of experts exists who says there is only one method to forecast
the weather and that is per computer. Therefore success is limited to only
five or six days - ten days at the most - with ensembles perhaps a few days
more. Anything beyond that cannot be done - therefore it is not done. And
it is not easy to break down the walls of that way of thinking.

The Countryfile forecasts you mention are a product of what I have been
talking about. I marvel at the fact that computers are capable of producing
forecasts for five or six days ahead when so little input is available to do
the job. And of course its inherent effect of the analysis chart ends
there, the moment it is entered into the computer.

So there we have it Col, the people who determine current thinking have no
other possibility but to quote from their own experience.

The method I use is entirely different from the one which requires
successive forecasts to be made from an actual weather situation. My
method starts with finding out which factors are responsible for the weather
situation in hand. These I calculate from knowledge of the date and the time
and finish up with an index figure which is universally applicable for
determining the pressure situation for that date and time. I don't need to
attach the forecast to an analysis of real weather, I'm free to go where I
want. I pick out the date and time, and the forecast I end up with is for
that date. This means that there is only one possible forecast chart for that
date - It doesn't alter the forecast chart if I make the forecast a year
before.

This leads to the question - is weather random or organized? According to
science there is a deep feeling that weather is random and chaotic because at
present the scientific approach hasn't been successful and at the moment the
best improvement to the situation is merely ensemble forecasting.

From my own point of view weather is finely organized. If I'm 0.5 of an
index figure out, I could pick out the wrong forecast chart. It's interesting
to watch movements of pressure centres caused by changes in index figures.
If an index figure shows that a depression should remain still or be
replenished by other depressions holding it back, then the depression will
remain on the spot in a real-weather situation. In other words, as the
index figures are (you could say) almost a product of nature, and the
figures indicate that a depression must be in a certain position at a certain
time, then the depression has to be there at that time - and it usually is.

There is one point that I have to make and that is that the detail of the
forecast charts is not as good as the ones derived from a computer. My
charts could be improved by graphical addition of a number of weighted
charts. But it's a big job and I haven't the tools to do it - and It would
be a trial and error story in the end, anyway. So I'm leaving things as they
are and I'm gathering more experience of where the limits are.

I'm almost embarrassed to say that retro forecasting for most of the
important historical events has been one of my main interests for a number of
years but I've only posted one or two because of the immense opposition to
single-day long range weather forecasting.

The success of the forecasting method has to be good. If any method can
produce a rough copy of the actual pressure situation for any place, on
any date mentioned - then the method must be good. If pressure charts can be
drawn up to cover a single time, a two day period, a five day period, a 15day
period and a monthly period - then the method must be quite good. If the
pressure chart can be changed into a 500mb top chart, show areas of strong
wind, show areas of lift or show areas of rainfall - then the method must be
even better.

All these things the method can do. It requires time, and weather is endless.

Col, I'm sorry to have made it so long - and I apologize for any errors in my
English. It's a bit late I suppose

Check the November forecast for yourself and form your own judgement.

Cheers, Keith

Col schrieb:

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

snip

Current thinking suggests it is quite impossible to forecast the weather
in this much detail so far ahead.
I've seen Countryfile forecasts for 5 days ahead that forecast to this
much detail go badly wrong, how can you hope to do this for over
2 month ahead?

What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

Hi Will,
As one forecaster to another, it's good to see your judgement hasn't ceased yet,
Will.. I couldn't stand it.otherwise.

By the way, Will, I've always thought it better to form an opionion after the
event because then I've got something tangible to hold on to. Doing it the other
way around means wallowing about in innuendo.

Will, try checking some of my last postings. Your opinion would be appreciated.

Cheers, Keith

Will schrieb:

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Col it's all in the runes :-)
At least it's not on a web site with thousands of hits an hour :-)

LOL

Will.
--

" Love begins when judgement ceases "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Col wrote in message ...

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds - turning to light
anticyclonic winds with night frost - an finishing with a small
depression near SE England which deserves our attention if we are a snow
fan.

snip

Current thinking suggests it is quite impossible to forecast the weather
in this much detail so far ahead.
I've seen Countryfile forecasts for 5 days ahead that forecast to this
much detail go badly wrong, how can you hope to do this for over
2 month ahead?

What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Col" wrote in message
...

Snip
What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col

Martin did a detailed verification of Keith's Wimbledon forecast in 2001
http://tinyurl.com/s95n

Jon.

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

Hello Jim!
I don't mind doing a range of forecasts for Britain at T + 10 days to T+20
days if that is suitable. If historical retro forecasts are suggested for
dates I don't know about that would be interesting, too.

I've got Christmas Forecasts 2003 in chart-form for Europe, USA, Australia,
Falklands and Japan. They won't be posted because I'm having difficulty with my
scanner. If anyone wants a text description in the Forum, they'll have to ask.

Thanks for your reply, Jim.

Cheers, Keith

Jim Webster schrieb:

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message Col, I'm sorry
to have made it so long - and I apologize for any errors in my
English. It's a bit late I suppose

Check the November forecast for yourself and form your own judgement.

Cheers, Keith


It will be interesting to compare over a period how your forecasts do pan
out. To be fair, we ought to also compare a 'conventional' forecast as well,
so provide some sort of control. I suppose we could take the 'Countryfile'
or similar forecast, and just see if you end the year with a better record
than they do.

Jim Webster

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Col" wrote in message
...

Snip
What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col

Martin did a detailed verification of Keith's Wimbledon forecast in 2001
http://tinyurl.com/s95n

Oh dear :)

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
...
"Col" wrote in message
...

Snip
What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col

Martin did a detailed verification of Keith's Wimbledon forecast in 2001
http://tinyurl.com/s95n

Oh dear :)


Well if Keith's forecasting a mild winter, I should think it's oh good!

Victor

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Keith Darlington" wrote in message
...
During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds

What ever happened to should/could/may/might (not) ?

Yannis.

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Yannis" wrote in -
berlin.de:

During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds

What ever happened to should/could/may/might (not) ?

Hear hear!

Richard

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

I, for one, am grateful to know that I have to go abroad for a white
Christmas this year.
They say Antarctica isn't too bad in late December, plenty of iceberg
cruises as well.
Alex

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
. 1.4...
"Yannis" wrote in
-
berlin.de:

During the period 24th December 2003 till 1st January 2004 the weather
will be determined by the mild SW winds

What ever happened to should/could/may/might (not) ?

Hear hear!

Richard

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

Thanks for the link, Jon. I remember Martin telling me about his work on
the forecast. It was a very fair handling of my forecast and the results
were correct. Given the quality of the forecast I made, I couldn't have
expected anything better. . I think it was about that time that I had to
concede a very bad forecast I made even before the VT came into force. It
wasn't a successful time for me in those days. .

Anyway, that's quite a time ago, and much has happened since then. The
unreliable forecasting methods which couldn't be brushed up had to go, and
those that stayed had a number of trial-and-error programmes placed upon
them. The result was an improvement but still not good enough. And then,
almost by accident, a break-through came which put a new light on
everything. It's difficult to recall the actual happening, but it's like
searching for a logical lead and something entirely different crops up and
guides you down an entirely different path, - which in this case brought
the results I had been looking for.

At the moment I'm checking the Ist November avn forecast. Yesterday had
a great big depression over Denmark, but today the depression is on the move
and not as fearsome as yesterday. Also noticeable today was the eastwards
movement of HP into the area W of Ireland. And so the story will go on
until some kind of calmness happens at T + 3 days which I can rely upon.
Then we'll see how good the single-day forecast really is. If the first
day is good then all the others will be better.
Thanks again, Jon.

Cheers, Keith

Jon O'Rourke schrieb:

"Col" wrote in message
...

Snip
What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col

Martin did a detailed verification of Keith's Wimbledon forecast in 2001
http://tinyurl.com/s95n

Jon.

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

Thanks for the link, Jon. I remember Martin telling me about his work on
the forecast. It was a very fair handling of my forecast and the results
were correct. Given the quality of the forecast I made, I couldn't have
expected anything better. . I think it was about that time that I had to
concede a very bad forecast I made even before the VT came into force. It
wasn't a successful time for me in those days. .

Anyway, that's quite a time ago, and much has happened since then. The
unreliable forecasting methods which couldn't be brushed up had to go, and
those that stayed had a number of trial-and-error programmes placed upon
them. The result was an improvement but still not good enough. And then,
almost by accident, a break-through came which put a new light on
everything. It's difficult to recall the actual happening, but it's like
searching for a logical lead and something entirely different crops up and
guides you down an entirely different path, - which in this case brought
the results I had been looking for.

At the moment I'm checking the Ist November avn forecast. Yesterday had
a great big depression over Denmark, but today the depression is on the move
and not as fearsome as yesterday. Also noticeable today was the eastwards
movement of HP into the area W of Ireland. And so the story will go on
until some kind of calmness happens at T + 3 days which I can rely upon.
Then we'll see how good the single-day forecast really is. If the first
day is good then all the others will be better.
Thanks again, Jon.

Cheers, Keith

Jon O'Rourke schrieb:

"Col" wrote in message
...

Snip
What methods do you use and what sucess have you had?

Col

Martin did a detailed verification of Keith's Wimbledon forecast in 2001
http://tinyurl.com/s95n

Jon.

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"lawrence jenkins" wrote in message
...

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...

The 29th of July 2004 will be hot & sunny with Southerly Winds
probability, rather good ).

Though up in NW England I expect the morning to be mainly sunny
but high cloud edging in from the west from a slow moving cold
front will turn the sunshine much more hazy in the afternoon.
Max temp: 24C.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk


Col. It's a wind-up.

Don't you mean a mini-tornado?

Cheers, Alastair.

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

As much as I don't quite agree with your forecast, I do think it's
premature of others to dissmiss your long range forecast as wrong.

I think many people would do well to wait untill Jan 2004 before
replying to this forecast and compare what it has predicted to what
actually happens.

I whole heartedly agree with your comments regarding computer
forecasts not being the only method of forecasting.

I think computer models are excellent for up to 36HRS and possibly
beyond in zonal conditions.

I think many people link climate / weather and chaos theory without
actually knowing what chaos theory is.

Chaos theory works on sub atomic particles and in quantum physics, but
when we have such predictable major parts of equations like, solar
energy, atlantic SST's, albedo, density, pressure, it isn't chaos

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Yes it is chaos since we cannot observe SSTs etc to the resolution required for
weather forecasting. Hence errors creep into the analysis which leads to chaos.
The atmosphere itself is also chaotic due to non-linear feedback processes.
Remember chaos can arise out of extremely *simple* equations which have
application in the macro world.

Will.
--

" Love begins when judgement ceases "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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Nick wrote in message . ..
As much as I don't quite agree with your forecast, I do think it's
premature of others to dissmiss your long range forecast as wrong.

I think many people would do well to wait untill Jan 2004 before
replying to this forecast and compare what it has predicted to what
actually happens.

I whole heartedly agree with your comments regarding computer
forecasts not being the only method of forecasting.

I think computer models are excellent for up to 36HRS and possibly
beyond in zonal conditions.

I think many people link climate / weather and chaos theory without
actually knowing what chaos theory is.

Chaos theory works on sub atomic particles and in quantum physics, but
when we have such predictable major parts of equations like, solar
energy, atlantic SST's, albedo, density, pressure, it isn't chaos

Comprehensive Christmas Outlook - Long Range
 

"Will" wrote in message ...
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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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Yes it is chaos since we cannot observe SSTs etc to the resolution required for
weather forecasting. Hence errors creep into the analysis which leads to chaos.
The atmosphere itself is also chaotic due to non-linear feedback processes.
Remember chaos can arise out of extremely *simple* equations which have
application in the macro world.

Will.


/snip/

Hi Will and all,

I agree, Will, that it's the errors in determining what's happening
NOW which generate the errors in the forecasting, and not our
understanding (or lack of it) of the atmosphere. We understand fluuid
dynamics, thermodynamics, etc very well, and when we know, as near as
damn-it, the current situation, such as in a lab experiment, we can
forecast what's going to happen (e.g. heating a confined gas with a
light piston in the box, and the expanding gas pushing the piston out
a forecastable distance).

Then look at the global situation - try telling the computer program
what every single atom/molecule of the atmosphere is doing now
(impossible anyway due to the Heisenberg Uncertainty principle), and
then getting it to accurately forecast 5-10 days, and more ahead.

Even if people have all these other methods, such as for example,
pattern-matching, they must still have to match the current situation
EXACTLY with an historical one (bearing in mind that an analysis is
based on computer output as well as observations) before making a
forecast.

The atmosphere isn't unpredicatable per se, it's just chaotic, as Will
says, and even the smallest initial error will cause major variations
in forecasts.


cheers,

Paul K.