British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

A view of the AVERAGE PRESSURE CHART for the period 1st to 1ßth of
November 2003, shows low pressure to the NW of Britain and high
pressure to the S and SE. A general dividing line runs from about
Cornwall to Northumberland and puts rainy weather to the NW of it, and
much dryer weather to the SE of it.

This means that winds will be generally from a SW or S direction,
lifting temperatures to averaage or slightly above. This, too, means
that the SW of England can sometimes expect misty, drizzly days as the
warm, moist air comes into the country.

Although the general pattern will not change all that much over the
period, there are small differences which need to be talked about.

On 1st November, the LP to the NW of Britain will be on station and a
HP over the southern Baltic will have a ridge stretching backwards to
cover the south of the country. This means dryer weather with possible
night frost for the S and SE of the country, but frequent rain showers
for the N and NW.

On 2nd November, low pressure still exosts to the N and NW and there
could be a weak belt of HP running from off the SW coast, eastwards
along the Channel to central France. This would mean almost a repeat of
yesterday's weather.

On 3rd November, low pressure is maintained on station to the NW and W
of the British Isles. However, a pressure build up from the SW about
noon spreading E across the southern part of the country brings
improving weather to these areas. As usual, the rainy weather exists
over Northern Ireland and N and W Scotland.

On 4th November, high pressure is settled over NW France and NW
Germany, a trailing ridge runs along the French coast down to Biscay.
.. The LP to the NW of the country is still on station, but this time
there is chance of a secondary LP forming out in the Atlantic. Today,
only the extreme SE part of the country benefits from the HP as it moves
away into the continent.

On 5th November, the LP still exists near Iceland, but this time a
trough with fronts and waves stretches SE'wards to the London area.
There could be an improvement from the SW later in the day. This is a
rainy day for most of the country,

On 6th November. once again the LP lies to the NW of the country. It's
a large afair covering the country in strong SW winds. There could be
a secondary travelling up the Channel causing quite a lot of rain for
the S of the country.

On 7th November, the Iceland LP casts a trough SE'wards once again
forming a small LP near Ireland. This is also a rainy day for much of
the country.

On 8th November, a depression stretching from W to E from the Atlantic
into Scotland brings rainy weather to the northern half of the
country. A small HP ridge across southern Biscay into France will
hardly bring an improvement to the SE.

On 9th November, although the LP is still on station to the NW, an HP
ridge can be expected stretching from the SW of the country over W
France up ino the North Sea. It should bring an improvement in the
weather for most of the country. Only the extreme W of Scotland and
Northern Ireland should suffer the bad weather.

On 10th November, a depression lies to the N of Scotland and a new
depression is moving eastwards towards W Scotland. Fortunately, the
HP can still be found across England from Cornwall to Northumberland.
It seems a bit smaller and perhaps a bit weaker but dryer weather can
still be expected in the southern half ofthe country.

So there we have it - a dismal SW airstream, with any dry weather to
the SE where the effects of HP can be experienced. During the periiod
in question there is very little chance of a continued spell of dry
sunny weather for us all. And with temperatures kept up by the SW
winds we can expect temperatures to drop generally where clear skies
bring us some night frost. In fact - nothing much to write home about.

Cheers, Keith

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

And that is what makes our climate so BORING.
Anyway, thanks for the forecasts Keith.

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"danny" wrote in message
.. .
And that is what makes our climate so BORING.

You've just had one of the best summers on record, an all-time temperature
record shattering the previous one, a protracted drought lasting well into
the autumn and you call the climate BORING because at last it seems to
be reverting to somewhat more 'normal' conditions??

Some people are never happy.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"Col" wrote in message
...

so BORING.

You've just had one of the best summers on record, an all-time temperature
record shattering the previous one, a protracted drought lasting well into
the autumn and you call the climate BORING because at last it seems to
be reverting to somewhat more 'normal' conditions??

Some people are never happy.

Col
--


I said the same some weeks ago to danny, Col.
Small mind and all that.



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British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...

I said the same some weeks ago to danny, Col.
Small mind and all that.

Indeed:)

How are you finding Manchester weather Joe?
It's been pretty benign recently but just you wait until the rain sets in!

NW airstreams in winter are particularly fun; gales and rain/hail blasting
at your windows in the small hours.
Manchester is of course more sheltered than Bolton but I'm sure you
will notice the difference.

I just hope you aren't a snow lover.........

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"Col" wrote in
:

I just hope you aren't a snow lover.........

If you're the aforementioned person in this thread, bored of this country's
weather, you've already written off this winter because snowy periods in
this country are definitely "a thing of the past". Wait and see is what I
say!

Cheers
Richard

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

We are only interested if you can accurately predict a cold, snowy winter.

Shaun Pudwell.

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
.4...
"Col" wrote in
:

I just hope you aren't a snow lover.........

If you're the aforementioned person in this thread, bored of this
country's
weather, you've already written off this winter because snowy periods in
this country are definitely "a thing of the past". Wait and see is what I
say!

Cheers
Richard

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"Col" wrote in message
...

How are you finding Manchester weather Joe?
It's been pretty benign recently but just you wait until the rain sets in!

NW airstreams in winter are particularly fun; gales and rain/hail blasting
at your windows in the small hours.
Manchester is of course more sheltered than Bolton but I'm sure you
will notice the difference.

I just hope you aren't a snow lover.........

Hi Col,

I'm liking it at the minute, dry and cold. The best thing for me is the
train
journey home, straight through the Peak District via Chinley, Hope, Edale
etc. Luckily if I want to see snow I just hop on a train, although I hope it
doesn't stop me getting home over Xmas !

Joe


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British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

I said the same some weeks ago to danny, Col.
Small mind and all that.

The climate of the British Isles is extremely repetitive. Sure it's
'changeable', but is one low\front after another interesting? I think this
is where the old myth started... the British weather is sure changeable but
for a Weather enthusiast it's not interesting, or comparable to 'most' other
parts of the world. Don't kid yourself on this one.

Our climate is very benign and mellow. We never see proper extremes. For
one, we hardly ever see 'proper' snow that many other countries in the World
see. We never see proper rain\thunder. Temperatures are certainly not
extreme, and never will be on the edge of a vast, warm ocean.
The weather Keith described is very typical of winter weather in the UK, and
if you think it is interesting you have a smaller mind than me, and probably
a screw loose. ;) .

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...
We are only interested if you can accurately predict a cold, snowy winter.

Shaun Pudwell.

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
.4...
"Col" wrote in
:

I just hope you aren't a snow lover.........

If you're the aforementioned person in this thread, bored of this
country's
weather, you've already written off this winter because snowy periods in
this country are definitely "a thing of the past". Wait and see is what
I
say!

Cheers
Richard




I think Keith would be better suited over on TWO. They love ridiculous
forecast over there. Mind you it's not a particularly cold/snowy prediction,
so perhaps he's already been banned?

In fact the precision off his forecast reminds me of an old Soviet Union
joke.

A man needs a new car. He phones the State Lada Bureau. Eventually he gets
through.

Man "Good morning comrade I would like to order a new car how long would
that be please?"

State Lada car Lackey "Fours years time in1986"

Man " Four years time that's outrageous"

State Lada Man " You're lucky someone died and I was able to bring your
order forward by a year"

Man "Okay so 1986, what month would that be?"

State lada man "What month ! For gods sake,September okay"

Man " Ah. September what day and date?"

Very frustrated state lada man " What day and date!! The 24th on a Tuesday
if you really must know".

Man "Am or PM?"

State lada man, now totally exasperated.
"For gods sake man it's four years away, why is that so bloody important?"

Man "Oh well, its just that I've got a plumber coming that morning!"

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
.4...
"Col" wrote in
:

I just hope you aren't a snow lover.........

If you're the aforementioned person in this thread, bored of this country's
weather, you've already written off this winter because snowy periods in
this country are definitely "a thing of the past". Wait and see is what I
say!

Nope, that was Danny.

That comment was for Joe Hunt and was meant as a reflection of
the lack of snow in manchester rather than the country as a whole.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"danny" wrote in message
.. .


I said the same some weeks ago to danny, Col.
Small mind and all that.

The climate of the British Isles is extremely repetitive. Sure it's
'changeable', but is one low\front after another interesting? I think this
is where the old myth started... the British weather is sure changeable but
for a Weather enthusiast it's not interesting, or comparable to 'most' other
parts of the world. Don't kid yourself on this one.

Yes, dammit that *is* interesting!
There is almost always something going on that is of interest.
A sucession of lows can bring interesting changes, gusty cold fronts
with abrupt changes in wind direction/temperature and possibly
severe gales with squally hail showers behind.
It's the changeabilty that makes it interesting, rather than the absolute
extremes.

Our climate is very benign and mellow. We never see proper extremes. For
one, we hardly ever see 'proper' snow that many other countries in the World
see. We never see proper rain\thunder. Temperatures are certainly not
extreme, and never will be on the edge of a vast, warm ocean.
The weather Keith described is very typical of winter weather in the UK, and
if you think it is interesting you have a smaller mind than me, and probably
a screw loose. ;) .

Why this obsession with extremes, Danny?
Why not open your eyes to some of the more subtle stuff that's going on around
you rather than hoping for that once in 50 years snow event?

Many of the places that have 'extremes' by our standards seem to have
rather boring climates anyway. Imagine living in Oklahoma. Hot in summer,
rather cold in winter. Apart from the odd F5 tornado and spectacular
thunderstorm the weather there must be pretty tedious.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

Well, fair point. Horses for courses I guess... But I do like that weather
you describe .. I just wish I would see more of it, especially in the SE
where our climate seems High pressure(Azores) dominated to me.

Yes, dammit that *is* interesting!
There is almost always something going on that is of interest.
A sucession of lows can bring interesting changes, gusty cold fronts
with abrupt changes in wind direction/temperature and possibly
severe gales with squally hail showers behind.
It's the changeabilty that makes it interesting, rather than the absolute
extremes.



Why this obsession with extremes, Danny?
Why not open your eyes to some of the more subtle stuff that's going on
around
you rather than hoping for that once in 50 years snow event?

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"danny" wrote in message
.. .
Well, fair point. Horses for courses I guess... But I do like that weather
you describe .. I just wish I would see more of it, especially in the SE
where our climate seems High pressure(Azores) dominated to me.

When was the last time that happened Danny ? The Azores High I
am talking about, it has been absent/misplaced for the past few months.
This in itself is rather odd and has been picked out many a time
by Philip Eden in his Weather Log reports for Weather magazine.

However are you really that surprised our climate is domainated by
SW winds, caused in part by the Azores High ? Some back to basics
reading is required I think -

http://www.newmediastudio.org/DataDi...terly_%20Waves
/Trade_Winds/Trade_Winds.html
or http://makeashorterlink.com/?D1C742556

Joe


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British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"Col" wrote in
:

Yes, dammit that *is* interesting!
There is almost always something going on that is of interest.
A sucession of lows can bring interesting changes, gusty cold fronts
with abrupt changes in wind direction/temperature and possibly
severe gales with squally hail showers behind.
It's the changeabilty that makes it interesting, rather than the
absolute extremes.

Agreed - we're in a fortunate enough position to receive most weather. We
can be unbearably (well, in my book!) hot in summer (38.5c this summer), and
pretty damn cold in winter (-27c or whatever the record low is). We get the
odd tornado (I'll refrain from using "mini" to save the pedants!) and the
odd severe thunderstorm. Our position in winter also means that there is
always a threat of heavy snow in place (easterly lake-effect snow over the
North Sea, or snow on a northern side of a low).

The most interesting thing (and probably why so much research has been
carried out into it over the last 30 years in this country, and it's still
going strong) is that we're in the firing eye of the jetstream on more than
the odd occasion (Oct 87, Jan 90, Oct 00 to name a few) - and we therefore
get extratropical weather systems the severity of which *many* countries
won't see.

Cheers
Richard

British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th November 2003
 

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
. 1.4...
"Col" wrote in
:

Agreed - we're in a fortunate enough position to receive most weather.
We
can be unbearably (well, in my book!) hot in summer (38.5c this
summer), and
pretty damn cold in winter (-27c or whatever the record low is). We
get the
odd tornado (I'll refrain from using "mini" to save the pedants!) and
the
odd severe thunderstorm. Our position in winter also means that there
is
always a threat of heavy snow in place (easterly lake-effect snow over
the
North Sea, or snow on a northern side of a low).

The most interesting thing (and probably why so much research has been
carried out into it over the last 30 years in this country, and it's
still
going strong) is that we're in the firing eye of the jetstream on more
than
the odd occasion (Oct 87, Jan 90, Oct 00 to name a few) - and we
therefore
get extratropical weather systems the severity of which *many*
countries
won't see.

Hi, Richard,

Says it all, really. I certainly don't find it boring!

ATB,

--
Ken Cook, Copley (5miles north of Barnard Castle), County Durham.
830ft
http://mysite.freeserve.com/copley
(MO climat. site updated before 10Z and 19Z daily)
kencookATcopleydurham.freeserve.co.uk


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