centerbold WINTER FORECAST 2003-2004./centerbold


Expected Differences from average, percentage chance:

Very Mild (More than 3C above average) 10
Mild (More than 2C above average) 20
Rather Mild (More than 1C above average) 30
Average (+0.7 to -0.7C of average) 20
Rather Cold (More than -0.7C below average) 15
Cold (More than 2C below average) 5
Very Cold (More than 3C below average) 0
Severe (More than 4C below average) 0

METHODOLOGY
Cycles after Mason 1976, mainly 23 and 76 years. 20%. Result: Rather
Mild December, Average January Mild February.
Similarities from CETs and Ewp data. 30 % . Result: Mild December.
Rather Mild January. Rather mild February
Similarities/dissimilarities in pressure and contour pattern for the
preceding autumn, with greatest emphasis on temperature and rainfall,
and especially November rainfall. 40%. Result: Rather Mild December.
Rather Cold January. Rather Mild February
H H Lambs work 10% (Mainly for timing, Russian unlikes etc). Result:
Average overall. Cold snaps most likely at the end of December.
Anytime in January, and mid-February.

Summary: Rather Mild or Mild. Rainfall just above average. Average
snowfall in north due to a few temporary cold snaps. Below average in
the south due to a scarcity of cold easterlies.
--
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Summary: Rather Mild or Mild. Rainfall just above average. Average
snowfall in north due to a few temporary cold snaps. Below average in
the south due to a scarcity of cold easterlies.
--
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

No offense... but wasnt all this wrong last winter, and why below average in
south
due to scarcity of cold easterlies, ever heard of northerlies or north
easterlies
and low pressures hitting cold air?

The snow in jan was due to a northerly and slight northeasterly!

Dont rely just on easterlies to give good snow fall

On Fri, 28 Nov 2003 16:13:01 +0000, Paul Bartlett wrote in


Expected Differences from average, percentage chance:

Very Mild (More than 3C above average) 10
Mild (More than 2C above average) 20
Rather Mild (More than 1C above average) 30
Average (+0.7 to -0.7C of average) 20
Rather Cold (More than -0.7C below average) 15
Cold (More than 2C below average) 5
Very Cold (More than 3C below average) 0
Severe (More than 4C below average) 0
snip

As ever - many thanks Paul for sharing your thoughts with us - and in the
only sensible way - probabilistic. This seems to tie in with the other
"respected" sources of LRFs.


--
Mike Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 28/11/2003 16:26:50 UTC
My aurora images here http://www.mtullett.plus.com/29a-oct and
http://www.mtullett.plus.com/20-nov/

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...
Summary: Rather Mild or Mild. Rainfall just above average. Average
snowfall in north due to a few temporary cold snaps. Below average in
the south due to a scarcity of cold easterlies.
--
"Wisest are they that know they do not know." Socrates
Site 25 miles on a bearing 240deg from the Wash.
Height 390FT amsl. 52.80'N 00.75'W. Central England forecasts
www.rutnet.co.uk, right hand side weather at the bottom includes 9 day
forecasts. Paul Bartlett (01572 812243)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

Thanks yet again Paul.
Some glimmers of hope amongst that for snow lovers, particularly from the
Lambs method and also for us northerners.
I imagine the wet and cool end to this month has changed the outlook
slightly, when compared to how it would have looked even last week? Perhaps
tilting things slightly more to the average and away from rather mild?
All the best, and good luck.
Alex.

"nguk." wrote in message
...

The snow in jan was due to a northerly and slight northeasterly!

Dont rely just on easterlies to give good snow fall





yes but this was not a large scale affair, anywhere more than 50 miles
inland didn't see much snow.


joe,bedford (little snow)

"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 28 Nov 2003 16:13:01 +0000, Paul Bartlett wrote in


Expected Differences from average, percentage chance:

Very Mild (More than 3C above average) 10
Mild (More than 2C above average) 20
Rather Mild (More than 1C above average) 30
Average (+0.7 to -0.7C of average) 20
Rather Cold (More than -0.7C below average) 15
Cold (More than 2C below average) 5
Very Cold (More than 3C below average) 0
Severe (More than 4C below average) 0
snip

As ever - many thanks Paul for sharing your thoughts with us - and in the
only sensible way - probabilistic. This seems to tie in with the other
"respected" sources of LRFs.

Well Mike and Paul,

I can't say I like the probalistic approach. How can it be verified?
Science that can't be verified is philosophy, or so the C4 program
on String Theory claimed.

I 'll settle for 1C above average, but what is the average? I couldn't see
where that was specified in the original post.

Cheers, Alastair.

Thanks Paul. Your Winter forecasts have been pretty accurate in past years.
So I'm obviously disappointed, though not surprised, after reading this one.

Neil,

Don't take it personally, we would all like to see some 'winter' this
year, but Paul's only summarising what the statistics he uses point
to. I'm sure Paul also would like to see some snow :-)

If it's wrong it's wrong, that's all part of the game of weather.

Keith (Southend)

********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003



On Fri, 28 Nov 2003 16:19:36 +0000 (UTC), "nguk."
wrote:



No offense... but wasnt all this wrong last winter, and why below average in
south
due to scarcity of cold easterlies, ever heard of northerlies or north
easterlies
and low pressures hitting cold air?

The snow in jan was due to a northerly and slight northeasterly!

Dont rely just on easterlies to give good snow fall

"Keith (Southend)" wrote in message
...
Neil,

Don't take it personally, we would all like to see some 'winter' this
year, but Paul's only summarising what the statistics he uses point
to. I'm sure Paul also would like to see some snow :-)

If it's wrong it's wrong, that's all part of the game of weather.

Keith (Southend)


No no im not taking it personally i was just discussing his post!

"Alastair McDonald" k wrote in
message ...

"Mike Tullett" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 28 Nov 2003 16:13:01 +0000, Paul Bartlett wrote in


Expected Differences from average, percentage chance:

Very Mild (More than 3C above average) 10
Mild (More than 2C above average) 20
Rather Mild (More than 1C above average) 30
Average (+0.7 to -0.7C of average) 20
Rather Cold (More than -0.7C below average) 15
Cold (More than 2C below average) 5
Very Cold (More than 3C below average) 0
Severe (More than 4C below average) 0
snip

As ever - many thanks Paul for sharing your thoughts with us - and in the
only sensible way - probabilistic. This seems to tie in with the other
"respected" sources of LRFs.

Well Mike and Paul,

I can't say I like the probalistic approach. How can it be verified?
Science that can't be verified is philosophy, or so the C4 program
on String Theory claimed.

I 'll settle for 1C above average, but what is the average? I couldn't see
where that was specified in the original post.

I suspect that Paul will feel his forecast was most correct if it lands
in that 30% zone of 'Rather Mild'.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk