uk.sci.weather (UK Weather) (uk.sci.weather) For the discussion of daily weather events, chiefly affecting the UK and adjacent parts of Europe, both past and predicted. The discussion is open to all, but contributions on a practical scientific level are encouraged.

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Old December 9th 03, 08:55 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 'Murphy's Winter'

In article ,
Brendan DJ Murphy writes:

All hope is lost for any snow and ice this winter, but one infamous
forecast has not been aired, that of 'Murphy's Winter'. And this is
what I like so much about the weather.


And what exactly is *MY* winter?


IIRC, one year around a couple of centuries ago an almanac of the "Old
Moore's" type got lucky with their winter forecast and correctly
forecast a severe winter. The almanac was published by someone called
Murphy, and the winter became known as "Murphy's winter".
--
John Hall

"Distrust any enterprise that requires new clothes."
Henry David Thoreau (1817-1862)

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Old December 9th 03, 08:59 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 'Murphy's Winter'

Keith (Southend) wrote:

All hope is lost for any snow and ice this winter, but one infamous
forecast has not been aired, that of 'Murphy's Winter'. And this is
what I like so much about the weather.


Murphy's Winter states that there will be an unexpected heavy snow-fall
at about lunchtime on the 22nd January in the locality of Manchester
Airport.

Jonathan - flying from Heathrow to Manchester on 22nd Jan
Canterbury, Kent

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Old December 9th 03, 09:43 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 'Murphy's Winter'

...... and of course -

MURPHY'S NINTH LAW.
Nature always sides with the hidden flaw.

MURPHY'S SECOND COROLLARY.
It is impossible to make anything foolproof, because fools are so ingenious.

THE OCCURRENCE CONCEPT.
The probability of occurrence of Murphy's Law is inversely proportional to
expectation and desirability of such an occurrence.

Dave


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Old December 10th 03, 12:31 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 'Murphy's Winter'


Except, of course, 1990 and 1991 both with a CET of 3C.
Winters from 1963/64 to 1977/78 didn't have any that cold. Neither did the
winters from 1895/96 to 1915/16.

Victor

Sorry to be prenicity, but wasn't the winter of 1976/1977 rather cold? It
always seems to be overlooked for some reason.

I wouldn't say 1990 or 1991 were VERY cold. By recent standards maybe.

December 1995 had a mean temperature of -1.4°C here, probably the coldest
month at this location since January 1979, or maybe even 1963.
There are always exceptions to every rule.
Statistical trends may point to a mild winter at hand but there are always
exceptions to every rule.


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Old December 10th 03, 10:20 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 'Murphy's Winter'

In article ,
Alex Stephens Jnr writes:
December 1995 had a mean temperature of -1.4°C here, probably the coldest
month at this location since January 1979, or maybe even 1963.
There are always exceptions to every rule.


Yep. I wouldn't be surprised if Dec 1995 even beat Jan 1963 for you,
since I believe that winter was less severe in Scotland than in England.
CET temperatures are of course "Central England Temperatures". If there
was a CST series ("Central Scottish") then I imagine that many of the
values would be considerably different from those in the CET. (IIRC,
you're in Motherwell.)
--
John Hall "He crams with cans of poisoned meat
The subjects of the King,
And when they die by thousands G.K.Chesterton:
Why, he laughs like anything." from "Song Against Grocers"


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Old December 10th 03, 10:15 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default 'Murphy's Winter'


"Alex Stephens Jnr" wrote in
message ...

Except, of course, 1990 and 1991 both with a CET of 3C.
Winters from 1963/64 to 1977/78 didn't have any that cold. Neither did

the
winters from 1895/96 to 1915/16.

Victor

Sorry to be prenicity, but wasn't the winter of 1976/1977 rather cold? It
always seems to be overlooked for some reason.


Winter 1976/77 CET was 3.3C so overall "warmer" than 1990/91 or 1995/96

I wouldn't say 1990 or 1991 were VERY cold. By recent standards maybe.


Ok, not as cold as some of the "classic" winters but pretty cold anyway.

Victor




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