ADVANCED WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER


Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Northern Scotland,
Eastern Scotland, North
East England, South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 10:29 on Wednesday, 17 December 2003.

Strong northerly winds are forecast by the Met Office to bring frequent and
blustery snow
showers on Sunday, particularly to Northern and Eastern coastal counties.
There is a good deal
of doubt regarding the severity of the weather but there is the potential
on Sunday for heavy
snow showers to be driven well inland from the east coast on the strong to
gale force
northeasterly winds. Several cm of snow is possible locally with some
drifting which could
lead to widespread disruption to transport.

Transmitted by the Met Office. at 10:29 on Wednesday 17 December

On Wed, 17 Dec 2003 11:20:40 -0000, "Joe Hunt"
wrote:

ADVANCED WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

I'm now very sceptical about these warnings. We've had worse weather
here without a warning than when there has been a warning,
particularly with regard to high winds.

In fact I'm now quite sceptical about anything the Met. Office
predicts.

--
Alan White
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow.
Overlooking Loch Goil and Loch Long in Argyll, Scotland.
http://tinyurl.com/55v3

On Wed, 17 Dec 2003 12:13:06 +0000, Alan White
wrote:

On Wed, 17 Dec 2003 11:20:40 -0000, "Joe Hunt"
wrote:

ADVANCED WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER

I'm now very sceptical about these warnings. We've had worse weather
here without a warning than when there has been a warning,
particularly with regard to high winds.

In fact I'm now quite sceptical about anything the Met. Office
predicts.

The models are in good agreement about the northerly blast, so it will almost
certainly happen. The devil is in the detail as always, such as the track of
the low, the depth of the cold plunge etc.

JPG

On Wed, 17 Dec 2003 12:21:54 +0000, JPG wrote:

The devil is in the detail as always,...

Agreed.

--
Alan White
Twenty-eight miles NW of Glasgow.
Overlooking Loch Goil and Loch Long in Argyll, Scotland.
http://tinyurl.com/55v3

Joe Hunt wrote:
ADVANCED WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER


Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Northern Scotland,
Eastern Scotland, North
East England, South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 10:29 on Wednesday, 17 December 2003.

snip lovely dream

If it comes off I'm going to send them a box of mince pies.
Sarah H

"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
ADVANCED WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER


Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Northern Scotland,
Eastern Scotland, North
East England, South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 10:29 on Wednesday, 17 December 2003.

Lincolnshire! Thats me! Oooooh, snow )

reverts to calm "wait and see" mode...
James

typical, got an early morning trip to Dyce to get a flight to Amsterdam on
Sunday morning, hope the snow is late, but snow tyres are on car in
expectation of problems
"Joe Hunt" wrote in message
...
ADVANCED WARNING OF SEVERE WEATHER


Here is an ADVANCED WARNING of Heavy Snow affecting Northern Scotland,
Eastern Scotland, North
East England, South East England and East Anglia AND Lincolnshire.
Issued by the Met Office at 10:29 on Wednesday, 17 December 2003.

Strong northerly winds are forecast by the Met Office to bring frequent
and
blustery snow
showers on Sunday, particularly to Northern and Eastern coastal counties.
There is a good deal
of doubt regarding the severity of the weather but there is the potential
on Sunday for heavy
snow showers to be driven well inland from the east coast on the strong
to
gale force
northeasterly winds. Several cm of snow is possible locally with some
drifting which could
lead to widespread disruption to transport.

Transmitted by the Met Office. at 10:29 on Wednesday 17 December

.... I understand the scepticism of some to this warning, but having
watched the build-up through the models over the past couple of days,
and the strong potential they indicate, the Met Office are right to
issue this warning (and I write as someone who thinks that, on occasion,
we issued too many such).

.... There are now solid reasons for believing that sub-528 dam total
thickness air will be dragged across many parts (though only
temporarily), with high threat to east and north; indeed some models
show sub-522dam; with instability features entrained (or
locally-generated convection), these values almost certainly produce
snow in some quantity - altitudes, amounts etc., always the problem, and
the deepest cold air may yet be nudged aside into continental Europe ...
however ...

.... at this time of year, many, *many* people are travelling to
areas/over roads they do not normally traverse; many journeys are being
planned etc., that are not undertaken at other times of the year. The
Advanced Warning has a map of % probabilities attached (see the web
site), and with the 40-50% probability (i.e. given a large enough
sample, roughly half of occasions such as this would present
*significant* difficulties for travellers (road, rail, air etc.), it
gives good guidance for those 'on the move': YOU now have the
information to decide whether to go early, or go later to wait and see
what happens, or just prepare a little more.

.... Whatever happens, I feel this is a useful warning, given the way it
is phrased and given the time of year.... and it's certainly going to be
interesting however the detail pans out!

Martin.

Martin Rowley wrote:

... I understand the scepticism of some to this warning, but having
watched the build-up through the models over the past couple of days,
and the strong potential they indicate, the Met Office are right to
issue this warning (and I write as someone who thinks that, on occasion,
we issued too many such).

snippy


I like the fact probabilities being shown, they are helpful. But what
are the chances of getting some snow (say in Hampshire) as opposed to
disruptive amounts? I guess what Im asking is that as it is still more
unlikely than it is likely - what is the more likely scenario for
Sunday/Monday?
Eep - hope I made sense!

Sarah H

SarahH wrote:
Martin Rowley wrote:

... I understand the scepticism of some to this warning, but having
watched the build-up through the models over the past couple of days,
and the strong potential they indicate, the Met Office are right to
issue this warning (and I write as someone who thinks that, on occasion,
we issued too many such).

snippy


I like the fact probabilities being shown, they are helpful. But what
are the chances of getting some snow (say in Hampshire) as opposed to
disruptive amounts? I guess what Im asking is that as it is still more
unlikely than it is likely - what is the more likely scenario for
Sunday/Monday?
Eep - hope I made sense!

Sarah H


What is a disruptive amount? A relatively small amount last year brought
the M11 and surrounding areas in Cambs to a standstill...

John