================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

All, this is a very serious post.

Just had a look at all the available information this morning and it seems to me
that the UK is *potentially* in for quite a severe spell of weather this coming
week with the possibility of loss of life, damage to property and some
disruption.

The low on Monday will give heavy rain in England and Wales and could cause
flooding. Track is important for associated gales, but a track slightly further
north than the Met Office expects could bring severe gales or storm force winds
to larger areas of southern England. Atrocious conditions are likely in the
Channel anyway with a high swell and severe gales or storms. Another low on
Tuesday could be just as nasty with a short spell of very strong winds and even
some snow over high ground, particularly in the north.

As things turn colder after Wednesday there is a significant risk of heavy
snowfall, possibly blocking roads and causing disruption. High ground and
northern areas obviously most at risk but low lying southern Britain not immune.

This is a bad time of year to have such a strong jet so far south and "aiming"
at the UK - that is the reason for this post.

Please keep an eye on Met Office TV and radio forecasts for warnings for your
region.

Take care,

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thanks for that update Will.

The following cold spell doesn't look quite so bad this morning, and
probably more shortlived than it appeared yesterday, would you agree
with this?

Keith (Southend)

http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1
********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003


On Sat, 10 Jan 2004 10:04:41 -0000, "Will"
wrote:


================================================= ===================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================= ===================

All, this is a very serious post.

Just had a look at all the available information this morning and it seems to me
that the UK is *potentially* in for quite a severe spell of weather this coming
week with the possibility of loss of life, damage to property and some
disruption.

The low on Monday will give heavy rain in England and Wales and could cause
flooding. Track is important for associated gales, but a track slightly further
north than the Met Office expects could bring severe gales or storm force winds
to larger areas of southern England. Atrocious conditions are likely in the
Channel anyway with a high swell and severe gales or storms. Another low on
Tuesday could be just as nasty with a short spell of very strong winds and even
some snow over high ground, particularly in the north.

As things turn colder after Wednesday there is a significant risk of heavy
snowfall, possibly blocking roads and causing disruption. High ground and
northern areas obviously most at risk but low lying southern Britain not immune.

This is a bad time of year to have such a strong jet so far south and "aiming"
at the UK - that is the reason for this post.

Please keep an eye on Met Office TV and radio forecasts for warnings for your
region.

Take care,

Will.

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Hi Keith, honestly I'm really not sure. I still cannot do better than the trend
I issued on thursday.

I would suggest this week's weather is going to be more than enough for all of
us !

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Keith (Southend) wrote in message ...
Thanks for that update Will.

The following cold spell doesn't look quite so bad this morning, and
probably more shortlived than it appeared yesterday, would you agree
with this?

Keith (Southend)

http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1
********************************
'Weather Home & Abroad'
http://www.southendweather.net
********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
All mail scanned for virus's using Norton 2003


On Sat, 10 Jan 2004 10:04:41 -0000, "Will"
wrote:


================================================ ====================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================ ====================

All, this is a very serious post.

Just had a look at all the available information this morning and it seems to
me
that the UK is *potentially* in for quite a severe spell of weather this
coming
week with the possibility of loss of life, damage to property and some
disruption.

The low on Monday will give heavy rain in England and Wales and could cause
flooding. Track is important for associated gales, but a track slightly
further
north than the Met Office expects could bring severe gales or storm force
winds
to larger areas of southern England. Atrocious conditions are likely in the
Channel anyway with a high swell and severe gales or storms. Another low on
Tuesday could be just as nasty with a short spell of very strong winds and
even
some snow over high ground, particularly in the north.

As things turn colder after Wednesday there is a significant risk of heavy
snowfall, possibly blocking roads and causing disruption. High ground and
northern areas obviously most at risk but low lying southern Britain not
immune.

This is a bad time of year to have such a strong jet so far south and "aiming"
at the UK - that is the reason for this post.

Please keep an eye on Met Office TV and radio forecasts for warnings for your
region.

Take care,

Will.

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Hi Keith, honestly I'm really not sure. I still cannot do better than
the trend
I issued on thursday.


.... this is the key: the situation is highly volatile - a small change
one way or the other will be the key: the models nowadays are *superb*
but they can't do the whole job. The best that can be done is to outline
the possibilities and prepare for what might happen.

Martin.

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----



I dont know what to believe at the moment , nobody knows just how bad this
low will be
if its bad at all the gfs runs are trying to kill off the cold spell again
with just a day affair.

hard to tell whats going to happen

Until or unless a controlling High takes over (from whatever direction) and
the hole in the atmosphere near Iceland or Southern Greenland starts to
fill,any cold spell will be short lived ,and the Atlantic will rule as ever
..
Very unscientific I know ,but just watch it.....

RonB
"nguk.." wrote in message
...

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----



I dont know what to believe at the moment , nobody knows just how bad this
low will be
if its bad at all the gfs runs are trying to kill off the cold spell again
with just a day affair.

hard to tell whats going to happen

In message , Martin Rowley
writes

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Hi Keith, honestly I'm really not sure. I still cannot do better than
the trend
I issued on thursday.


... this is the key: the situation is highly volatile - a small change
one way or the other will be the key: the models nowadays are *superb*
but they can't do the whole job. The best that can be done is to outline
the possibilities and prepare for what might happen.

Martin.

It's a fascinating conundrum. The models handle the broadscale well in
these situations but the detail much less well. As ever, it's the detail
that really matters.

The 06z run of the GFS is predicting nothing stronger than a mean speed
of 20 knots for this location on Monday. We shall see

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to reply)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...

|
| Martin.
|
| It's a fascinating conundrum. The models handle the broadscale well in
| these situations but the detail much less well. As ever, it's the detail
| that really matters.
|
| The 06z run of the GFS is predicting nothing stronger than a mean speed
| of 20 knots for this location on Monday. We shall see
|
| Norman.
| (delete "thisbit" twice to reply)

Hi Norman,

The ECM has certainly put the spanner in the works -

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm721.gif

Joe

In message , Joe Hunt
writes

"Norman Lynagh" wrote in message
...

|
| Martin.
|
| It's a fascinating conundrum. The models handle the broadscale well in
| these situations but the detail much less well. As ever, it's the detail
| that really matters.
|
| The 06z run of the GFS is predicting nothing stronger than a mean speed
| of 20 knots for this location on Monday. We shall see
|
| Norman.
| (delete "thisbit" twice to reply)

Hi Norman,

The ECM has certainly put the spanner in the works -

Joe

The 12z GFS run gives mean winds only up to 17 knots on Monday for this
location. It's all on a bit of a knife edge.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to reply)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

On Sat, 10 Jan 2004 18:13:24 +0000, Norman Lynagh wrote in


Hi Norman,

The ECM has certainly put the spanner in the works -

Joe

The 12z GFS run gives mean winds only up to 17 knots on Monday for this
location. It's all on a bit of a knife edge.

Fascinating indeed. I have just looked at the 12z GFS run and what stands
out for me is the incredibly tight thermal gradient (as seen by the 500mb
temps superimposed on the surface progs), around 45 to 50 deg to our south
west.

--
Mike 55.13°N 6.69°W Coleraine posted to uk.sci.weather 10/01/2004 18:44:16 UTC