MONDAY: IS THE WOLF OUT THERE, OR AM I JUST CRYING WOLF?
I have been out on a limb now since pre-winter speculation about the worry
about a strong arctic outbreak this winter into the west of Europe. Last
week, I really started crying wolf and low and behold, no wolf appeared. If
something did appear it was more like a kitty cat in the west.

Now there are three ways to look at a forecast. One is dead out flat wrong.
In other words someone says, this will happen and it never does, the weather
goes the opposite. A second way is perfect. It is rare, for in my opinion,
only God is perfect, and the rest of us just try to be, and so things get
messed up. In any case the third way is right, but....

There is a saying all forecast is a matter of timing. Say something long
enough and it has to happen. Well that is not true in the least. For
instance, if I held onto my idea that this block would pop and the trough
would come back and it never did, that is wrong. But here we are, and it is
now looking like I simply jumped the gun. By next Monday a large upper low
forms over France, and all of Europe is encased in colder-than-normal
temperatures.

Now for a large part of the continent it has been a warm winter so far, so
what is coming as a whole will be the coldest weather of the winter. Much of
this week will be much colder than average from Italy to northwestern Russia
where true arctic air has taken over. The west is another case of wondering
about the source region. I would expect it to be polar first, but the mid
and latter part of the week, arctic air may start to crank and that's when
we could see temperatures as much as 5c below normal for France and England
for a three-day period.

Now the idea it could snow on the riviera for this past week was based on
the misconception on my part that the upper trough was ready to back. That
did not happen, and even though it is backing now, no bold statements like
that will be made. However, the pattern is one that lends itself to
extremes, so we will watch to see how much true arctic air gets involved. At
the very least, I would say every station west of a line from Oslo to Nice
will have their coldest means (temps against the average) next week over a
five-day period of the winter. The worst case would send a late week charge
from the east and northeast back southwest with even colder air.

I think when it's all said and done, the idea brought forth earlier this
winter about the weird symmetry between summer and winter will hold some
water. For the hottest week of the summer in the west was the last week of
July. The coldest week of the winter, and we are talking relative to
averages, may indeed be the last week of January, the winter equal to July.

Ciao for now.









Well said Joe *******i , i hope brian two will stfu and stop bashing him and
reading his post makes you wonder if he is talking about long range
forecasters on two "In other words someone says, this will happen and it
never does, the weather goes the opposite"

Hi Gavin,

As you probably know it depends on time of year/cloud
amount/precipitation/fetch/snow-cover, previous night's min etc.

However, at this time of year, given no snow-cover, clear skies in a
northerly, I would suggest it struggles to get above freezing inland.

Given snow-cover, cloud-cover and snowfall in a northerly, then a few
degrees below.

Cheers

John Hammond


"nguk.." wrote in message
...
MONDAY: IS THE WOLF OUT THERE, OR AM I JUST CRYING WOLF?
I have been out on a limb now since pre-winter speculation about the worry
about a strong arctic outbreak this winter into the west of Europe. Last
week, I really started crying wolf and low and behold, no wolf appeared.
If
something did appear it was more like a kitty cat in the west.

Now there are three ways to look at a forecast. One is dead out flat
wrong.
In other words someone says, this will happen and it never does, the
weather
goes the opposite. A second way is perfect. It is rare, for in my opinion,
only God is perfect, and the rest of us just try to be, and so things get
messed up. In any case the third way is right, but....

There is a saying all forecast is a matter of timing. Say something long
enough and it has to happen. Well that is not true in the least. For
instance, if I held onto my idea that this block would pop and the trough
would come back and it never did, that is wrong. But here we are, and it
is
now looking like I simply jumped the gun. By next Monday a large upper low
forms over France, and all of Europe is encased in colder-than-normal
temperatures.

Now for a large part of the continent it has been a warm winter so far, so
what is coming as a whole will be the coldest weather of the winter. Much
of
this week will be much colder than average from Italy to northwestern
Russia
where true arctic air has taken over. The west is another case of
wondering
about the source region. I would expect it to be polar first, but the mid
and latter part of the week, arctic air may start to crank and that's when
we could see temperatures as much as 5c below normal for France and
England
for a three-day period.

Now the idea it could snow on the riviera for this past week was based on
the misconception on my part that the upper trough was ready to back. That
did not happen, and even though it is backing now, no bold statements like
that will be made. However, the pattern is one that lends itself to
extremes, so we will watch to see how much true arctic air gets involved.
At
the very least, I would say every station west of a line from Oslo to Nice
will have their coldest means (temps against the average) next week over a
five-day period of the winter. The worst case would send a late week
charge
from the east and northeast back southwest with even colder air.

I think when it's all said and done, the idea brought forth earlier this
winter about the weird symmetry between summer and winter will hold some
water. For the hottest week of the summer in the west was the last week of
July. The coldest week of the winter, and we are talking relative to
averages, may indeed be the last week of January, the winter equal to
July.

Ciao for now.









Well said Joe *******i , i hope brian two will stfu and stop bashing him
and
reading his post makes you wonder if he is talking about long range
forecasters on two "In other words someone says, this will happen and it
never does, the weather goes the opposite"

"nguk.." wrote in message
...
snip
I think when it's all said and done, the idea brought forth earlier this
winter about the weird symmetry between summer and winter will hold some
water. For the hottest week of the summer in the west was the last week of
July. The coldest week of the winter, and we are talking relative to
averages, may indeed be the last week of January, the winter equal to
July.

It's amusing that he seems to think that the hottest weather last summer
in western Europe was during the last week of July. It makes you
wonder about the rest of his thought processes.

Philip Eden

Yes, I wondered that, after all it was the 10th August that the heat
peaked. So, maybe the beginning of February is what he means :-)

Keith (Southend)

********************************
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********************************
COL Station for Southend-on-Sea
http://www.wunderground.com/weathers...p?ID=IESSEXSO1
********************************
Reply to: kreh'at'southendweather'dot'net
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On Tue, 20 Jan 2004 19:10:59 -0000, "Philip Eden"
philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote:


"nguk.." wrote in message
...
snip
I think when it's all said and done, the idea brought forth earlier this
winter about the weird symmetry between summer and winter will hold some
water. For the hottest week of the summer in the west was the last week of
July. The coldest week of the winter, and we are talking relative to
averages, may indeed be the last week of January, the winter equal to
July.

It's amusing that he seems to think that the hottest weather last summer
in western Europe was during the last week of July. It makes you
wonder about the rest of his thought processes.

Philip Eden

"nguk.." wrote in message
...
MONDAY: IS THE WOLF OUT THERE, OR AM I JUST CRYING WOLF?
I have been out on a limb now since pre-winter speculation about the worry
about a strong arctic outbreak this winter into the west of Europe. Last
week, I really started crying wolf and low and behold, no wolf appeared.
If
something did appear it was more like a kitty cat in the west.

Now there are three ways to look at a forecast. One is dead out flat
wrong.
In other words someone says, this will happen and it never does, the
weather
goes the opposite. A second way is perfect. It is rare, for in my opinion,
only God is perfect, and the rest of us just try to be, and so things get
messed up. In any case the third way is right, but....

There is a saying all forecast is a matter of timing. Say something long
enough and it has to happen. Well that is not true in the least. For
instance, if I held onto my idea that this block would pop and the trough
would come back and it never did, that is wrong. But here we are, and it
is
now looking like I simply jumped the gun. By next Monday a large upper low
forms over France, and all of Europe is encased in colder-than-normal
temperatures.

Now for a large part of the continent it has been a warm winter so far, so
what is coming as a whole will be the coldest weather of the winter. Much
of
this week will be much colder than average from Italy to northwestern
Russia
where true arctic air has taken over. The west is another case of
wondering
about the source region. I would expect it to be polar first, but the mid
and latter part of the week, arctic air may start to crank and that's when
we could see temperatures as much as 5c below normal for France and
England
for a three-day period.

Now the idea it could snow on the riviera for this past week was based on
the misconception on my part that the upper trough was ready to back. That
did not happen, and even though it is backing now, no bold statements like
that will be made. However, the pattern is one that lends itself to
extremes, so we will watch to see how much true arctic air gets involved.
At
the very least, I would say every station west of a line from Oslo to Nice
will have their coldest means (temps against the average) next week over a
five-day period of the winter. The worst case would send a late week
charge
from the east and northeast back southwest with even colder air.

I think when it's all said and done, the idea brought forth earlier this
winter about the weird symmetry between summer and winter will hold some
water. For the hottest week of the summer in the west was the last week of
July. The coldest week of the winter, and we are talking relative to
averages, may indeed be the last week of January, the winter equal to
July.

Ciao for now.









Well said Joe *******i , i hope brian two will stfu and stop bashing him
and
reading his post makes you wonder if he is talking about long range
forecasters on two "In other words someone says, this will happen and it
never does, the weather goes the opposite"



Neil. there are subtle differences between BG and JB.
They are as follows:
One of them works and represents a major meteorological forecasting
organisation.
One of them acknowledges their duff forecast and doesn't lay claim to
forecast a year ahead.

Now I wonder which is which and who is who?