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Old January 23rd 04, 05:27 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default Forecast update (23/01/04)


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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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As you know I rarely update forecasts on here, but in light of the very serious
forecast situation next week I have made an exception.

The "dire, doom and gloom" scenario now looks like a 60% possibility.
On Sunday afternoon rain will reach the SW, quickly turning to sleet and snow
above 200m this will then move steadily east across southern England during the
evening and night, possibly giving temporary blizzard conditions above 300m. SE
England could well have problems Monday morning as northeasterlies set in behind
the low. The Midlands and Wales could escape the heaviest precipitation but snow
showers will be draped around exposed coasts and hills.

The emphasis for the rest of the week remains for sub-zero maxes in many places
with heavy snow at times associated with slow moving upper vortices. Northern
and eastern areas are most at risk with potential for blocked roads and serious
skin-damaging wind chill in mountains where the north wind could touch gale. The
elderly and livestock are also at risk.

No sign of a thaw until next Saturday at the earliest and then I suspect it will
be a messy dirty affair with avalanche risk in mountains.

Looking further afield, as the very cold sub-516 DAM air floods south over
France and hits the warm waters of the Med there is the potential for violent
thunderstorms and catastrophic flooding in the south of France and parts of
northern Italy. The Alps could also see huge snowfalls and attendant avalanche
threat due to shear volume of snow.

Please take care next week.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
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