I have to say I am starting to find it a bit tedious that every 6 hours
(usually GFS based) someone posts that it is going to be one of the coldest
spells for years or that it's completely collapsing. How many times do the
experts have to say that models are an indication of the trends and any one
taken in isolation can only be that at best.
FACT: It will be cold next week.
FACT: It will most likely snow in lots of places
FACT: It will probably breakdown at some stage in the next 1-6 weeks!

Much more detail is pure conjecture, so let's be patient, look at the charts
and watch the forecasts but cut out the silly stuff!

Dave

I am beginning to only trust GFS for 3 days at the most. Anything more than that and they really
haven't got a clue.

--
Brendan DJ Murphy
Rayleigh, Essex, 51:34N 0:36E 30m asl
Castle Point Astronomy Club http://www.cpac.org.uk


"Dave. C" wrote in message
...
I have to say I am starting to find it a bit tedious that every 6 hours
(usually GFS based) someone posts that it is going to be one of the coldest
spells for years or that it's completely collapsing. How many times do the
experts have to say that models are an indication of the trends and any one
taken in isolation can only be that at best.
FACT: It will be cold next week.
FACT: It will most likely snow in lots of places
FACT: It will probably breakdown at some stage in the next 1-6 weeks!

Much more detail is pure conjecture, so let's be patient, look at the charts
and watch the forecasts but cut out the silly stuff!

Dave

It's not just the GFS model. I don't think we can trust any model after
about 3 days.


"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
I am beginning to only trust GFS for 3 days at the most. Anything more
than that and they really
haven't got a clue.

"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
I am beginning to only trust GFS for 3 days at the most. Anything
more than that and they really
haven't got a clue.

--
.... don't just 'blame' the GFS: I think Philip Eden mentioned a couple
of days ago that the models were entering a period of what I would call:
'which-way-shall-we-fall' mode. There is a major change of long-wave
type about to be performed, and the slightest synoptic-scale 'wobble'
loaded onto the broader-scale change could kick it one way or another.
As you rightly say, best not to trust the detail (and perhaps the broad
thrust), beyond 3 or so days - an 'interesting' week coming up!

Martin.


--
FAQ & Glossary for uk.sci.weather at:-
http://homepage.ntlworld.com/booty.weather/uswfaqfr.htm

If you find it boring Dave give this newsgroup a miss untill the cold spell
breaks.Most of us who post here are very excited about the coming event.And
excitment makes us say silly things.
It is our last hold on childhood.And that is something i don't want too loose
:-)

"SSpiers" wrote in message
...
If you find it boring Dave give this newsgroup a miss untill the cold
spell
breaks.Most of us who post here are very excited about the coming
event.And
excitment makes us say silly things.
It is our last hold on childhood.And that is something i don't want too
loose
:-)

hate to say it but I tend to follow this group MORE when the weather gets
potentially 'interesting'. OK there are times when the enthusiasm for
extreme conditions can be a tad trying (but hey, genuine enthusiasm about
anything is worth cherishing:-)) but the quality of some of the discussion
and forecasting more than makes up for it.

Jim Webster

It's ok, I know that. Anyone who's read my posts in the last three years
will know I'm no killjoy. It's just the suicidal "it's all gone wrong" stuff
when anyone can see that it hasn't on the available info that is daft - not
childish.

Take care, Dave.

"SSpiers" wrote in message
...
If you find it boring Dave give this newsgroup a miss untill the cold
spell
breaks.Most of us who post here are very excited about the coming
event.And
excitment makes us say silly things.
It is our last hold on childhood.And that is something i don't want too
loose
:-)


Well said that ma..erm..... child!

Well said that ma..erm..... child!

....I'll get me coat ! (sorry,sledge, hopefully).

Although GFS did hint at this cold spell at 15 days and were consistent for
it coming up to about 7 days.

I was at a seminar not long ago which showed how the models became more and
reliable as you got closer to the event except for a little wobble for some
reason around day 4. Maybe we have seen have the 4 day wobblys

Stan
"Brendan DJ Murphy" wrote in message
...
I am beginning to only trust GFS for 3 days at the most. Anything more
than that and they really
haven't got a clue.

--
Brendan DJ Murphy
Rayleigh, Essex, 51:34N 0:36E 30m asl
Castle Point Astronomy Club http://www.cpac.org.uk


"Dave. C" wrote in message
...
I have to say I am starting to find it a bit tedious that every 6 hours
(usually GFS based) someone posts that it is going to be one of the
coldest
spells for years or that it's completely collapsing. How many times do
the
experts have to say that models are an indication of the trends and any
one
taken in isolation can only be that at best.
FACT: It will be cold next week.
FACT: It will most likely snow in lots of places
FACT: It will probably breakdown at some stage in the next 1-6 weeks!

Much more detail is pure conjecture, so let's be patient, look at the
charts
and watch the forecasts but cut out the silly stuff!

Dave