"spu02je" wrote in message
...
Technically Mr Fish's comment there wont be a hurricane was true, it was
not
a hurricane as the disturbance did not originate in the tropics.
Hurricane
force winds yes were observed ie F12.

The Met office forecasts have grown in accuracy in the last decades. A
one
day forecast given in 1960 is now as accurate as a 3day forecast in 2004.
Inshore water forecasts are diccicult to judge especially in anticyclonic
conditions when sea breezes form etc. Frontal features do however
complicate the matter but forecasts are improving!!!

James Eberlein

Department of Meteorology

University of Reading

I didn't say they were't accurate, more that the interpretation was always
on the black side and alarmist. In any forecast there is a range of
probablilities, and I still think that when popularising their forecasts for
mass consumption they are going to the poorest end of probabaility rather
than the most probabale part of the range.

I suspect the same thing in the States ; I'm often out in Long Island Sound
hearing "10 to 15 knots" while my sails are listless ...

"Duncan Heenan" wrote in message
...
I think I have detected an increasing trend in Met Office Weather
forecasts
over the past year or so, to exaggerate weather dangers. Not only in
general
forecasts when it never seems to get as wet, hot, cold, windy etc as they
say, but also in shipping and inshore forecasts. A number of times over
the
last year I have not sailed because of warnings of Gales or F6s and above
which have not materialised, and consequently I have missed a good day
out.
I am now beginning to discount their pessimism a bit, and no doubt one day
the forecast will come true and I'll get caught out and they can shout 'We
told you so'.
I can't help thinking that there's a lawyer somewhere in the background
advising them to forecast the worst possible, rather than the most likely,
weather, in order to avoid litigation or criticism. (a la M. Fish -'There
won't be a Hurricane").
What do you think?
I wonder if anyone there reads this newsgroup?