Can anyone with access to the original literature shed light on the
period(s) over which Alexander Buchan based his analysis?

The Meteorological Glossary (var. ed), mentions 'over 50 years', but in
works by Lamb, Goldie etc., the period 1857-1866 is listed (the original
work, I believe, was published in 1867), with ".... account being taken
of certain records back to 1795".
(Don't worry: I'm not trying to resurrect these spells for any sinister
or populist purpose! Just trying to find out the truth behind the
analysis.)

Martin.

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In article ,
Martin Rowley writes:
Can anyone with access to the original literature shed light on the
period(s) over which Alexander Buchan based his analysis?

Gordon Manley, in "Climate and the British Scene", mentions a book by EL
Hawke called "Buchan's Days", published in 1937 by Lovat Dickson. If you
can trace a copy, it would probably answer your question.
--
John Hall
"If you haven't got anything nice to say about anybody, come
sit next to me."
Alice Roosevelt Longworth (1884-1980)

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...
Can anyone with access to the original literature shed light on the
period(s) over which Alexander Buchan based his analysis?

The Meteorological Glossary (var. ed), mentions 'over 50 years', but in
works by Lamb, Goldie etc., the period 1857-1866 is listed (the original
work, I believe, was published in 1867), with ".... account being taken
of certain records back to 1795".
(Don't worry: I'm not trying to resurrect these spells for any sinister
or populist purpose! Just trying to find out the truth behind the
analysis.)

Martin, I can't find a reference to answer your question
properly, even though I checked his obituaries in the journals
plus an encomium :-) on the award of the first Symons Gold
Medal to him in 1902. The trouble is that the Buchan Spells
were not a major part of his work, and not even widely known
about until someone resurrected them in the debate about fixing
Easter during the 1920s.

If the original work is published it will almost certainly be
in the Journal of the Scottish Meteorological Society for
1867 (or 1869 which was quoted by CEPBrooks).

However, I do remember reading somewhere that his
research was based only on Edinburgh temperature records
and he never claimed they were applicable to any other part
of the UK.

I imagine someone else will find a decent reference, but in
the absence of that, if I turn up anything relevant I'll let you know.

Philip Eden

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
.. .

However, I do remember reading somewhere that his
research was based only on Edinburgh temperature records
and he never claimed they were applicable to any other part
of the UK.

.... yes, Lamb certainly stressed this point (e.g. in "The English
Climate"), and in "Weather", auth: Ralph Abercromby, revised by Goldie
(1934), the following is stated .... " These 'spells' have acquired
considerable notoriety*, and it has sometimes been assumed that they
should recur at the same dates not only in future years but in other
countries. Buchan made no such claim."
[ *presumably due to the fixed-Easter debate: my note]

I imagine someone else will find a decent reference, but in
the absence of that, if I turn up anything relevant I'll let you know.

.... many thanks. My interest is to make it clear on the FAQ page dealing
with 'singularities' over what period the analysis was made. Currently,
I have used the Meteorological Glossary entry which states ' ... over 50
years', but I'm now wondering if that is correct, or rather a gross
simplification.

Martin.

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message

I imagine someone else will find a decent reference, but in
the absence of that, if I turn up anything relevant I'll let you know.

... many thanks. My interest is to make it clear on the FAQ page dealing
with 'singularities' over what period the analysis was made. Currently,
I have used the Meteorological Glossary entry which states ' ... over 50
years', but I'm now wondering if that is correct, or rather a gross
simplification.

In Gregory, Sir Richard, Weather Recurrences and Weather Cycles,
Presidential Address to the RMetSoc on 15 Jan 1929, we find, at
the conclusion of a review of Buchan's original paper:

"These nine periods were deduced from observations in Scotland
during a period of ten years in the middle of the nineteenth
century. In spite of this limitation, however, they have been
assumed by many newspaper correspondents to be equally valid
for the temperature of London in the twentieth century. Such an
assumption is quite unwarranted, and Buchan, if he were alive
to-day[sic], would be the first to reject it. No scientific evidence
has ever been adduced that cold or warm periods have any
tendency to occur in London on Buchan's dates."

The original reference is given as:
Edinburgh, J.Scot.Meteor.Soc., Vol 2, 1869, p.4

Philip Eden

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message
...

... many thanks. My interest is to make it clear on the FAQ page dealing
with 'singularities' over what period the analysis was made. Currently,
I have used the Meteorological Glossary entry which states ' ... over 50
years', but I'm now wondering if that is correct, or rather a gross
simplification.

Dunno whether you have a note in the FAQ on Buys Ballot's Law, Martin,
but I've just come across this, which was a surprise to me:

"It is interesting to recall here that Cleveland Abbé, in an appreciation of
Buchan, wrote: 'Buys Ballot enunciated a comparatively crude rule for
weather forecasting in Holland, but Buchan showed that this rule was
simply the local expression of two rules, namely, the rotation of the
winds, and the progress of the storms, and it is he to whom we owe
the very pretty rule that is called Buys Ballot's Law; but he was too
generous and kind to make any such claim for himself."

Here's a quote from the same article to make all Scots proud:

Following an appeal for subscriptions to the Ben Nevis Observatory
Fund in 1883, John Stuart Blackie, who was described as a
patriotic champion of Scottish Nationality, replied: "I am sorry
that meteorological studies have no attraction for me and that not
being troubled with superfluity of cash I am obliged to reserve my
contributions to claims more kindred to my nature."

Source:
Scrap Album of Alexander Buchan, anon., Weather, vol 5, no.3,
1950.

Philip Eden

"Martin Rowley" wrote in message


Can anyone with access to the original literature shed light on the
period(s) over which Alexander Buchan based his analysis?
Buchan’s first cold period: 7th – 14th February.

Buchan’s second cold period: 11th- 14th April.

Buchan’s third cold period: 9th -14th May.

Buchan’s fourth cold period: 29th June to 4th July.

Buchan’s first warm period: 12th -15th July.

Buchan’s fifth cold period: 6th -11th July.

Buchan’s second warm period: 12th – 15th July.

Buchan’s sixth cold period: 6th -13th November.

I think that’s all of them in the 1950 edition of Weatherlore by Richard
Inwards. You can check up in your public library first thing tomorrow in
Whitacker’s Almanack, that book also contains a brief history. My dates
came from Richard Inwards’ collection.

Another book I have mentions 3rd to 14th December as his second warm
period. This one relates the second cold period to the “blackthorn
winter.” Various countries have festivals to ice saints at the time of
the third cold period. It also mentions 2 more warm periods: 12th-15th
August and 3rd – 14th December.
Britain’s Weather. David Bowen.

I seem to recall that the first cold period is coincident with the
proverb about hibernating mammals such as badgers, bears and groundhogs.
That last may give more credence to it all; that there are allowances
for variation in the system.


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I notice that you don't define the word "Singularity" on your page about
them, Marty. Other than that it is what I may have been looking for for
a
reason that my lunaticisms fail me.

Something you might bear in mind if furthering any research on them, is
the time of phase of the moon. I'm sorry to bang the drum on this but I
have noticed that when they usher in a series of consecutive spells as
has just broken with the cyclones off Africa, they set up a singularity
that ends in a calamaty with either these things; powerful earthquakes
or massive volcanic eruptions.



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... thanks for all the information.

Martin.

"Michael Mcneil" wrote in message
news:7acf4adcdb6cb2b267eb7467b980fae1.45219@mygate .mailgate.org...
"Martin Rowley" wrote in message


cut

Buchan's first warm period: 12th -15th July.

Buchan's fifth cold period: 6th -11th July.

Buchan's second warm period: 12th - 15th July.
cut
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Has a mistake been made here as the first and second warm periods are the
same dates.

Stan