Is SST's continue to rise we won't see cold spells in the UK. You don't even
need to be a Scientist to work that one out.
---------------------------------------------------------

"danny" wrote in message
...
But Richard, isn't that exactly why Greece is seeing such weather? Maybe I
misread your post.. do you mean long-lived cold spells are possible in the
UK or other parts of the World?

Just in case some things have been misunderstood, as far as Greece is
concerned:

Athens has seen an *average* number of snow days this winter -until now.
Figures below are for SE Athens, alt 150m amsl:

December 2003: 2
January 2004: 4
February 2004: 3 (last one was today)

The low temperatures helped snow stay on the ground a bit longer than it
does on average, but we had by no means record low temperatures, except for
the lee coastline of Athens.

The track of lows during *this* winter has caused more snow on the islands.
This, ofcourse, is outweighed by the lack of snow in northern continental
Greece, apart from the mountainous areas, as some areas that remain
traditionally under a snow cover for quite some days in winter have received
much less snow than average -thusfar.

The few data above do not imply that the climate here has gotten any colder.
2001, 2002 and 2003 have been a bit more continental (in terms of annual
temperature ranges); this means that low temperatures in winter time
continue to be proceeded by high temperatures in the summer.

All the best,

Yannis, SE Athens

"Waghorn" wrote in message
. I wld think the latest IPCC report sets out the basic consensus
understanding pretty well-
http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/index.htm

Consensus there may be, but I'm not convinced that there's much
understanding.

My understanding is that that at least in the near to medium term GW is
likely to manifest itself
thro changes in natural modes of climate variabilty eg NAO/AO (putting
aside the possibility of
rapid climate change via eg THC flips,Pace McDonald!).If the trend for the
NAO overall becomes
more +ve ,ie more zonal,this does not preclude years or even 10s of
years,when a -ve NAO is
possible,blocking is likely and cold air outbreaks can occur.

Absolutely. But that is, nonetheless, an awfully big "if".

It shld be remembered that variability occurs on a wide variety of time
scales,quite naturally,AGW
aside.

Including scales which we can only scratch the surface of, given the
limitations of proxy data.

pe

"danny" wrote in
:

Is SST's continue to rise we won't see cold spells in the UK. You don't
even need to be a Scientist to work that one out.
---------------------------------------------------------

Well, either way - please get over it and cheer up. There's always a holiday
in the Alps if things aren't cold enough here and you *really* want snow!!

Richard

If the broadscale circulation is
stuck in a groove that brings persistent relatively warm SW'lies to our
corner of Europe then it is virtually certain the somewhere about half a
wavelength downstream will be getting weather persistently colder than
average.

Some clear-headed logic! We know our winters have been warmer in the
last 15 yrs or so, but are figures available for other mid-latitude places, eg
America, Russia which might show how their winters have changed, if at all, in
a similar period? This comparison could tell us a lot. I'd do it myself but
am not quite sure where to look.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
.4...
"danny" wrote in
:

Is SST's continue to rise we won't see cold spells in the UK. You don't
even need to be a Scientist to work that one out.
---------------------------------------------------------

Well, either way - please get over it and cheer up. There's always a holiday
in the Alps if things aren't cold enough here and you *really* want snow!!

Richard

The snow and ice in the Alps is retreating. That snow will have gone soon
too:-(

Cheers, Alastair.

In message , Alastair McDonald
k writes

"Richard Dixon" wrote in message
. 1.4...
"danny" wrote in
:

Is SST's continue to rise we won't see cold spells in the UK. You don't
even need to be a Scientist to work that one out.
---------------------------------------------------------

Well, either way - please get over it and cheer up. There's always a holiday
in the Alps if things aren't cold enough here and you *really* want snow!!

Richard

The snow and ice in the Alps is retreating. That snow will have gone soon
too:-(

Cheers, Alastair.

While it might well decrease I don't think that even the most
pessimistic predictions of global warming would result in Alpine snow
completely disappearing in the next 100 years.

Norman.
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

Hi Richard,
No problem, I'm happy. All I'll say is some people in this newsgroup haven't
been outside\looked out the window much in the last 15 years! , or are
extremely blinkered. (probably the latter).
Yes, a switch has been flicked in my humble opinion.
Don't worry, I'll remind you so in 5-10 years time if you finally have a
change of heart. And if I'm wrong, which I dearly hope I am, slaughter me,
please.
BTW, I accept I'm just guessing.
I remember 5 years ago when I first followed this newsgroup.. people were
very optimistic then, turning a blind eye to GW, turning a blind eye to
anything out of the ordinary... well how things have changed.
Stock up on those Shorts and T-Shirts, 'cause woudn't surprise me if summer
conditions occur in February within 15 years time.
I'm looking to the future... lots of south coast business opportunities I
feel. .
----------------------------------------------------------

Well, either way - please get over it and cheer up. There's always a
holiday
in the Alps if things aren't cold enough here and you *really* want snow!!

Richard

In article ,
TudorHgh writes:
If the broadscale circulation is
stuck in a groove that brings persistent relatively warm SW'lies to our
corner of Europe then it is virtually certain the somewhere about half a
wavelength downstream will be getting weather persistently colder than
average.

Some clear-headed logic! We know our winters have been warmer in the
last 15 yrs or so, but are figures available for other mid-latitude places, eg
America, Russia which might show how their winters have changed, if at all, in
a similar period? This comparison could tell us a lot. I'd do it myself but
am not quite sure where to look.

My subjective impression is that there seems to have been a tendency for
colder than average winters in recent years in the Turkey/Balkans
region, with the favoured location of the Highs that bring us
south-westerlies bringing them northerlies or north-easterlies. But I
could very easily be wrong.
--
John Hall Weep not for little Leonie
Abducted by a French Marquis!
Though loss of honour was a wrench
Just think how it's improved her French. Harry Graham (1874-1936)

Some clear-headed logic! We know our winters have been warmer in the
last 15 yrs or so, but are figures available for other mid-latitude places, eg
America, Russia which might show how their winters have changed, if at all, in
a similar period? This comparison could tell us a lot. I'd do it myself but
am not quite sure where to look.

Tudor Hughes, Warlingham, Surrey
For one recent study-
Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2001: Regional Climate Impacts of the Northern Hemisphere
Annular Mode. Science, 293, 85-89.
http://horizon.atmos.colostate.edu/a...ENCEgalleys.ps
(you may need Ghostscript-
http://www.cs.wisc.edu/%7Eghost/index.html
)
other papers at-
http://horizon.atmos.colostate.edu/a...rs/CliTre.html

--
regards,
david
(add 17 to waghorne to reply)