British Isles Outlook - May Bank Holidays
 

Disclaimer: The forecaster is not responsible for losses or damage
incurred by the forecast-user. The forecast-user is responsible for
his own actions at all times.

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The first May Bank Holidays run from 1st to 3rd May 2004.
Generally, over the three days, there is a break-down of cyclonic
activity early-on and a build-up of anticyclonic conditions which
manage to hold on over the third day.

The first day begins with HP from the Azores pushing into S Ireland and
SW England. Cyclonic activity comprises a LP to the N of Scotland
and a small LP off SE England. These two LPs are pushed aside as a HP
bridge from the Azores-HP builds up E'ward across Wales and England
towards the continent. Out in the Atlantic, a medium sized LP moves
E'ward in the direction of the British Isles. Mild air comes into the S
and SE of England as advection sets in from the near continent.
Similarly, cooler air from the LP near N Scotland drifts into NW areas
of the country. Humidity is expected to be high over Scotland due to
the fronts of the Scottish LP. Humidity is also expected to be high
over SE England due to the nearness of the small LP in the Channel.
Weather will be showery in the SE which slowly die out as dry
conditions spread throughout the country. Only the N and NW of
Scotland can expect a continuation of showers throughout the day.

On the 2nd day, the large area of HP stretches from the SW of England
up to the E Scottish coast so that the whole of the SE of the country
is under anticyclonic conditions. Only the W of Scotland and N and W
Ireland have cyclonically curved isobars. It can be expected that
fronts of the parent depression to the W of Scotland cover these latter
areas so that rain showers can be expected in the mild S to SW winds
over W Scotland and N and W Ireland. Over the rest of the country, the
anticyclone brings fine, dry weather to the S, and SE areas of
Britain.

On the 3rd day, the pressure situation has not changed much. LP still
lies to the NW of Britain and an anticyclone lies to the SE, so that
anticyclonic conditions cover Britain SE of a line from Aberdeen to
Cornwall. Mild air flows across the country and surges into the North
Sea. Bright, sunny weather covers the SE, but rain in the W of
Britain could advance as far as W Wales during the day.

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The next May Bank Holiday is from 29th to 31st May 2004.
These three days have LP in common, because a large LP area just to the
NW of Scotland moves to W Scotland on the 3rd day and also has a
secondary LP coming into SW England on the 3rd.. Winds are mild SW
throughout the period. There are quite a few fronts crossing the
country over the three days and consequently quite a few showers to
contend with. The best that can be hoped for is a very flat ridge
appearing off the SE coast of England on the 2nd day which increases
in size on the 3rd day, but still hasn't much clout for better weather
conditions in the SE.

My personal opinion is that the Bank Holiday at the beginning of the
month should deliver better weather than the Holiday at the end of the
month. No guarantee given. (Please see my disclaimer)

Cheers, Keith