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Old April 10th 04, 02:42 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
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Default British Isles Outlook - 1st to 10th May 2004


Disclaimer: The forecaster is not responsible for losses or damage
incurred by the forecast-user. The forecast-user is responsible for
his own actions at all times.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GENERALLY MILD SOUTH WESTERLY WINDS. A WEEK OF ANTICYCLONIC
WEATHER FOR THE E AND SE - THEN CYCLONIC WEATHER TAKES OVER AFTER
ABOUT 7TH MAY.

The general weather situation over the period 1st to 10th May, has an
area of LP just to the W and NW of the country. An area of HP lies
over the near continent from Spain, France, N Italy, Germany up to S
Scandinavia and E of Iceland. The result is a mild SW airstream
covering the country. The period begins with mild sunny weather in the
SE, but showery weather generally in the NW. Towards the end of the
period, the showery weather in the NW spreads E and SE'wards bringing
cooler air from the Atlantic.

Temperatures over Britain start off mild, especially in the S, SE and E
of the country.
but towards the end of the period, cooler NW winds spread into the
country from the W and NW.

Strong wind days can be expected on and off in the W and SW of the
country after about 6th May till the end of the period.

The run of weather over the period starts on 1st with a ridge of HP in
the SW building up as it moves into the country. Later in the day, the
HP stretches E'wards towards the continent. An area of rain showers
near N Scotland moves away and a possible area of rain over S North Sea
also fades away. Winds may be cool from the W or NW at first in the
N'ern half of the country, but winds will become light and variable
later on.
On 2nd, the HP area has settled over the S , E and SE of the country
with LP to the NW of Britain. Mild SW winds cover the country with the
lighter winds in the SE. Rain showers can be expected in the W and NW
and mild sunny weather can be expected in the S, SE and E'tern parts.
On 3rd, there is not much change in the pressure situation from
yesterday's chart.
On 4th, hardly a change, except for a new LP approaching the SW
approaches, but there doesn't seem to be much E'ward movement of the LP
at the moment.
On 5th, conditions are similar to yesterday's. Perhaps the new LP to
the SW of England begins to drift E'wards to be near S Ireland later
on.
On 6th, the HP area near the E coast is still hanging on, and still
affecting the E and SE coastal areas with mild dry weather. But the
small LP is coming into the SW of England and its parent LP is still
near NW Scotland. A deterioration in weather comes into the W and SW of
the country and pushes the sunny weather further E'wards, out of the
country.
On 7th, a small ridge of HP has suddenly appeared in the SW and now
lies over the extreme SE of England. It may try to connect up with
some HP to the E of Scotland. but the ridge is transitory and will move
E followed by a LP area coming in from the W. Only a short interval of
fine weather in the SE before a deterioration sets in from the W.
On 8th, apart from a small area of HP to the NE and E of Scotland, LP
to the W and NW of Britain drifts E'wards and SE'wards into N Ireland
and W England. This ushers in a few days of bad weather for the
country.
On 9th, as the HP to the E of Scotland drifts away E'wards, a complex
area of LP covers N Ireland, W Scotland, Wales and W England. Cooler
W to NW winds come into the W of the country , but temperatures are up
in the E'tern coastal areas. A mainly miserable rainy day for most
parts.
On 10th, the general area of LP, stretching from W and N Scotland down
to the S coast of England, drifts slowly E'wards across the country.
Cool NW winds flow down the W of Britain while the rest of the country
has variable winds. A miserable day for most areas.

The next period, starting on 11th May, looks generally to have HP
still over the near continent, but also a complex area of LP over
Ireland and W England, up over Scotland, and into SW Norway. So the
hoped-for anticyclone over Scandinavia is not yet in the pipeline.

Cheers, Keith



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