Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained !

Joe

"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained !

Joe


Yes I do. There is a thing called the Quasi Biennial Oscilation (QBO) which
could mean that 2000, 2002, and 2004 are all years with wet summers.
Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.

Cheers, Alastair.

"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I
remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained
!

Joe



I think it will rain quite a lot yes, but temperatures will probably be
about a degree above average, simply because practically every month
recently has (apart from Oct 03), mainly though because overnight
temperatures have been so high. My mean minima for April 04 is 6.2c, higher
than anything I have recorded in April since my records began 9 years ago.

On Fri, 30 Apr 2004 11:23:52 +0100, "Alastair McDonald"
k wrote:


"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained !

Joe


Yes I do. There is a thing called the Quasi Biennial Oscilation (QBO) which
could mean that 2000, 2002, and 2004 are all years with wet summers.
Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.

Why does it? 1976 was a hot summer following a hot summer.

Where is the scientific paper about this QBO?

Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

JPG


Cheers, Alastair.

"JPG" wrote in message
...
On Fri, 30 Apr 2004 11:23:52 +0100, "Alastair McDonald"
k wrote:


"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I
remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and rained
!

Joe


Yes I do. There is a thing called the Quasi Biennial Oscilation (QBO)
which
could mean that 2000, 2002, and 2004 are all years with wet summers.
Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.

Why does it? 1976 was a hot summer following a hot summer.

Where is the scientific paper about this QBO?

Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

JPG

I am not joking, but I have been reading "Weather Cycles" by
Burroughs ISBN 0 521 52822 4, and he points out that as soon
as you identiy a weather cycle it stops working!

A quick search with www.google.com will soon find you plenty on
the QBO. Note that it is quasi, and so it varies and its average
length is 27 months. That would account for 1976 being hot, as
well as 2003. They are exactly 12 QBO cycles apart.

AFAIK there is no explanation for the QBO, so I cannot explain
why it should produce its effects. Moreover the solar cycle (sun
spots) and the ENSO will also have an effect.

Cheers, Alastair.

Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

It all reminds me of Murphy's laws in weather forecast:

http://www.e-kairos.gr/murphy2.html

;-)

"Yannis" schreef in bericht
...
Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

It all reminds me of Murphy's laws in weather forecast:

http://www.e-kairos.gr/murphy2.html

;-)


Having read your lovely interpretation of Murphy's law, I'm wondering how
its possible that many forecasts are right - however some even can be very
accurate and detailed. A counterpart Law ?? :-)).

Wijke
SE Flevopolder ms 3 m asl
The Netherlands
Sunny, some cirrus, Tc 23.5 :-)
warm easterly force 4; 1000.3 HpA dropping; 56%

"Wijke" wrote in message
...

"Yannis" schreef in bericht
...
Or is this tongue-in-cheek?

It all reminds me of Murphy's laws in weather forecast:

http://www.e-kairos.gr/murphy2.html

;-)


Having read your lovely interpretation of Murphy's law, I'm wondering
how
its possible that many forecasts are right - however some even can be
very
accurate and detailed. A counterpart Law ?? :-)).

Wijke
SE Flevopolder ms 3 m asl
The Netherlands
Sunny, some cirrus, Tc 23.5 :-)
warm easterly force 4; 1000.3 HpA dropping; 56%

Hi Wijke,

Some of that warmth is being advected NW, behind the rain band -
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html
I hope you are enjoying your lovely day, it's now 5 days here without
seeing blue sky.

Joe
--
Manchester, UK

Alastair McDonald wrote:


Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.


I used this logic(?) when my neighbours asked me at the end of one long,
hot, dry summer what the next summer would be like. The year was 1975. Doh!


--
Graham Davis
Bracknell

The QBO has a strict definition, which is as follows: A well-defined
oscillation of the zonal wind component in the equatorial stratosphere, the
period being about 27 months. It also known as the stratospheric
oscillation. The amplitude of the fluctuation is greatest at around 25 km
altitude, and decreases with distance from the equator.

It certainly does not apply to UK rainfall.

Don't you think that if there was a worthwhile correlation between the
rainfall in one year and the next, it would be resulting in successful
long-range forecasts for the next millennium?
--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.


Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html



"Alastair McDonald" k wrote
in message ...

"Joe" wrote in message
...
Hello All

It has been raining here in Wolverhampton, since Monday evening, and
with
the forecast for next week, being even more rain.

Does anyone think that this year will be like year 2000, where if I
remember
correctly, we didn't have a summer, it just rained, and rained and
rained !

Joe


Yes I do. There is a thing called the Quasi Biennial Oscilation (QBO)
which
could mean that 2000, 2002, and 2004 are all years with wet summers.
Anyway it seems reasonable to get a hot summer followed by a wet
summer.

Cheers, Alastair.