Stats for here in Luton:
Year MeanMin MeanMax OverallMean
2004 12.8 22.5 17.7
2003 12.1 21.3 16.7
2002 10.4 17.8 14.1
2001 7.2 17.2 12.2
2000 10.3 19.4 14.9
1999 8.6 17.9 13.3
1998 10.4 18.5 14.4
1997 10.6 22.6 16.6
1996 10.5 23.2 16.9
1995 8.9 16.6 12.8
1994 9.0 17.7 13.3
1993 11.2 22.8 17.0
1992 11.1 19.4 15.3
1991 7.1 15.2 11.2
1990 8.2 16.9 12.5
1989 5.1 15.3 10.2
1988 8.2 15.7 12.0
1987 8.7 16.0 12.3
1986 8.0 16.4 12.2
1985 7.6 18.3 12.9
1984 8.0 18.2 13.1
1983 11.2 20.6 15.9
1982 14.0 25.1 19.6
1981 10.4 18.5 14.5
1980 10.5 21.4 15.9

Philip Eden
Luton (obs site at 113m)

1982 certainly stands out. What was the rest of summer 1982 like?

Shaun Pudwell.


"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...
Stats for here in Luton:
Year MeanMin MeanMax OverallMean
2004 12.8 22.5 17.7
2003 12.1 21.3 16.7
2002 10.4 17.8 14.1
2001 7.2 17.2 12.2
2000 10.3 19.4 14.9
1999 8.6 17.9 13.3
1998 10.4 18.5 14.4
1997 10.6 22.6 16.6
1996 10.5 23.2 16.9
1995 8.9 16.6 12.8
1994 9.0 17.7 13.3
1993 11.2 22.8 17.0
1992 11.1 19.4 15.3
1991 7.1 15.2 11.2
1990 8.2 16.9 12.5
1989 5.1 15.3 10.2
1988 8.2 15.7 12.0
1987 8.7 16.0 12.3
1986 8.0 16.4 12.2
1985 7.6 18.3 12.9
1984 8.0 18.2 13.1
1983 11.2 20.6 15.9
1982 14.0 25.1 19.6
1981 10.4 18.5 14.5
1980 10.5 21.4 15.9

Philip Eden
Luton (obs site at 113m)

"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...
Stats for here in Luton:
Year MeanMin MeanMax OverallMean
Snip

Philip Eden
Luton (obs site at 113m)

As you might expect, I was interested in that data for evidence of global
warming. Although this year's figures are greater than previous years, they
are not a record even on a range stretching back only 25 years. The figures in
1982 were higher than this year. I though that if I constructed a running
mean of 5 years then perhaps it would show a monotonic (a new word I have just
learnt which roughly translated means 'steady' :-) increase in temperature.
You will see below that this was not the case, however creating a 10 year
running average did show such an increase from 1992.

This raises the obvious question "Why?" The first answer that occurred to me
was that there is an 11 year sunspot cycle, and a ten year running mean was
long enough to remove its influence. So I constructed an eleven year running
mean too. This shortened the montonicity to following year 1994. All are
shown below;

Year Mean 5 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr
2004 17.7 15.1 15.0 14.8
2003 16.7 14.2 14.5 14.7
2002 14.1 13.8 14.6 14.6
2001 12.2 14.3 14.7 14.4
2000 14.9 15.2 14.6 14.4
1999 13.3 14.8 14.3 14.0
1998 14.4 14.8 14.0 13.8
1997 16.6 15.3 13.8 13.6
1996 16.9 15.1 13.4 13.2
1995 12.8 13.9 12.9 12.9
1994 13.3 13.9 12.9 12.9
1993 17.0 13.2 12.9 13.1
1992 15.3 12.2 12.8 13.4
1991 11.2 11.6 13.2 13.3
1990 12.5 11.8 13.5 13.7
1989 10.2 11.9 13.9
1988 12.0 12.5
1987 12.3 13.3
1986 12.2 14.7
1985 12.9 15.2
1984 13.1 15.8
1983 15.9
1982 19.6
1981 14.5
1980 15.9

It is interesting that there now seems to be a trend of +0.1C per year in June
average temperatures. Since the sun spot cycle is actually 22 years it would
be interesting to see what would happen with a 22 year running mean over an
extended range of temperatures.

Cheers, Alastair.

I wondered about how things were going with regard to CET's so far for June.
Philip, how does this compare with some of the really hot June's ie June
1976? It is interesting to note that this is a full 1C more than last
years which was the warmest June since 1976.

Gavin.


"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...
Stats for here in Luton:
Year MeanMin MeanMax OverallMean
2004 12.8 22.5 17.7
2003 12.1 21.3 16.7
2002 10.4 17.8 14.1
2001 7.2 17.2 12.2
2000 10.3 19.4 14.9
1999 8.6 17.9 13.3
1998 10.4 18.5 14.4
1997 10.6 22.6 16.6
1996 10.5 23.2 16.9
1995 8.9 16.6 12.8
1994 9.0 17.7 13.3
1993 11.2 22.8 17.0
1992 11.1 19.4 15.3
1991 7.1 15.2 11.2
1990 8.2 16.9 12.5
1989 5.1 15.3 10.2
1988 8.2 15.7 12.0
1987 8.7 16.0 12.3
1986 8.0 16.4 12.2
1985 7.6 18.3 12.9
1984 8.0 18.2 13.1
1983 11.2 20.6 15.9
1982 14.0 25.1 19.6
1981 10.4 18.5 14.5
1980 10.5 21.4 15.9

Philip Eden
Luton (obs site at 113m)

I think one has to be careful here as quite a few past June's have started
hot, dry and sunny only to be replaced after mid month by cold and wet
conditions. I have an awful feeling this could be one of those years!

Shaun Pudwell.

"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
I wondered about how things were going with regard to CET's so far for
June.
Philip, how does this compare with some of the really hot June's ie June
1976? It is interesting to note that this is a full 1C more than last
years which was the warmest June since 1976.

Gavin.


"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...
Stats for here in Luton:
Year MeanMin MeanMax OverallMean
2004 12.8 22.5 17.7
2003 12.1 21.3 16.7
2002 10.4 17.8 14.1
2001 7.2 17.2 12.2
2000 10.3 19.4 14.9
1999 8.6 17.9 13.3
1998 10.4 18.5 14.4
1997 10.6 22.6 16.6
1996 10.5 23.2 16.9
1995 8.9 16.6 12.8
1994 9.0 17.7 13.3
1993 11.2 22.8 17.0
1992 11.1 19.4 15.3
1991 7.1 15.2 11.2
1990 8.2 16.9 12.5
1989 5.1 15.3 10.2
1988 8.2 15.7 12.0
1987 8.7 16.0 12.3
1986 8.0 16.4 12.2
1985 7.6 18.3 12.9
1984 8.0 18.2 13.1
1983 11.2 20.6 15.9
1982 14.0 25.1 19.6
1981 10.4 18.5 14.5
1980 10.5 21.4 15.9

Philip Eden
Luton (obs site at 113m)

"Shaun Pudwell" wrote in message
...
"Gavin Staples" wrote in message
...
I wondered about how things were going with regard to CET's so
far for
June.
Philip, how does this compare with some of the really hot June's
ie June
1976? It is interesting to note that this is a full 1C more
than last
years which was the warmest June since 1976.

I think one has to be careful here as quite a few past June's have
started
hot, dry and sunny only to be replaced after mid month by cold and
wet
conditions. I have an awful feeling this could be one of those
years!

Yes, quite right. 1982 stands out because that is the only year when
the period 1-10 June was almost entirely occupied by a single warm
spell. The other moderately warm years, like this year, had one
short-ish warm spell or a few scattered warm days. June 1976's
high CET was largely a response to the massive heatwave between
June 22 and 30; it was running behind 2004 at this stage of the
month.

What I find striking about the figures is the sequence of really
cold years, esp wrt mean max, between 1986 and 1991.

It is unwise to try to draw climatic conclusions from a selected
10-day period taken over just 25 years ... meteorological
vagaries are liable to swamp any climatological trend.

1982 was an unusual summer. The rest of June was
exceptionally cyclonic except in northern Scotland where it
was exceptionally dry. July was anticyclonic/northerly ...
warmest and sunniest in western and northern Britain, but
often cloudy and cool in eastern England. The first half
of August was cyclonic/easterly which made it warm and
thundery with some very hot days in Shetland. The second
half of August was very westerly. I am not, of course,
suggesting for one moment that that is a template for this
year.

Philip Eden

In message , Shaun Pudwell
writes
I think one has to be careful here as quite a few past June's have started
hot, dry and sunny only to be replaced after mid month by cold and wet
conditions. I have an awful feeling this could be one of those years!

Shaun Pudwell.


Hope so :-) It has been much too hot recently in the south for my
northern blood.

Norman
(delete "thisbit" twice to e-mail)
--
Norman Lynagh Weather Consultancy
Chalfont St Giles
England

Alastair, you need to be a little cautious when trying to deduce trends or
cycles using running averages. It is a mathematical fact that any series of
unweighted means will show periodic fluctuations with a period two to three
times the averaging period. The effect has been discussed several times in
'Weather', (Burton June 1997, p195, Reynolds Weather 1978, pp 74-76).
Running averages of random numbers will produce some really convincing
cycles.

--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html


"Alastair McDonald" k wrote
in message ...
"Philip Eden" philipATweatherHYPHENukDOTcom wrote in message
...
Stats for here in Luton:
Year MeanMin MeanMax OverallMean
Snip

Philip Eden
Luton (obs site at 113m)

As you might expect, I was interested in that data for evidence of global
warming. Although this year's figures are greater than previous years,
they
are not a record even on a range stretching back only 25 years. The
figures in
1982 were higher than this year. I though that if I constructed a running
mean of 5 years then perhaps it would show a monotonic (a new word I have
just
learnt which roughly translated means 'steady' :-) increase in
temperature.
You will see below that this was not the case, however creating a 10 year
running average did show such an increase from 1992.

This raises the obvious question "Why?" The first answer that occurred to
me
was that there is an 11 year sunspot cycle, and a ten year running mean
was
long enough to remove its influence. So I constructed an eleven year
running
mean too. This shortened the montonicity to following year 1994. All are
shown below;

Year Mean 5 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr
2004 17.7 15.1 15.0 14.8
2003 16.7 14.2 14.5 14.7
2002 14.1 13.8 14.6 14.6
2001 12.2 14.3 14.7 14.4
2000 14.9 15.2 14.6 14.4
1999 13.3 14.8 14.3 14.0
1998 14.4 14.8 14.0 13.8
1997 16.6 15.3 13.8 13.6
1996 16.9 15.1 13.4 13.2
1995 12.8 13.9 12.9 12.9
1994 13.3 13.9 12.9 12.9
1993 17.0 13.2 12.9 13.1
1992 15.3 12.2 12.8 13.4
1991 11.2 11.6 13.2 13.3
1990 12.5 11.8 13.5 13.7
1989 10.2 11.9 13.9
1988 12.0 12.5
1987 12.3 13.3
1986 12.2 14.7
1985 12.9 15.2
1984 13.1 15.8
1983 15.9
1982 19.6
1981 14.5
1980 15.9

It is interesting that there now seems to be a trend of +0.1C per year in
June
average temperatures. Since the sun spot cycle is actually 22 years it
would
be interesting to see what would happen with a 22 year running mean over
an
extended range of temperatures.

Cheers, Alastair.

Yn erthygl , sgrifennodd
Bernard Burton :
Alastair, you need to be a little cautious when trying to deduce trends or
cycles using running averages. It is a mathematical fact that any series of
unweighted means will show periodic fluctuations with a period two to three
times the averaging period. The effect has been discussed several times in
'Weather', (Burton June 1997, p195, Reynolds Weather 1978, pp 74-76).
Running averages of random numbers will produce some really convincing
cycles.

That's interesting - I didn't realise this. I was using running averages
a few years ago on data from a Raman spectrometer. But my method used
a sine wave average. So the number at the centre was given a weighting
of 1, the number at the edge (say 5 either side) 0, and the numbers
in between were cos((x/5)*90) - where x is the distance from the centre of
the averaged area. Multiply the result by the appropriate
number (I forget...) to rescale it into the same range as the original.

Using this method I never noticed any such cycles.

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk

"Bernard Burton" wrote in message
...
Alastair, you need to be a little cautious when trying to deduce trends or
cycles using running averages. It is a mathematical fact that any series of
unweighted means will show periodic fluctuations with a period two to three
times the averaging period. The effect has been discussed several times in
'Weather', (Burton June 1997, p195, Reynolds Weather 1978, pp 74-76).
Running averages of random numbers will produce some really convincing
cycles.

Of course, here there is not a cycle, but a linear trend,but it is probably
just a coincidence. If not, then we can predict the average temperature
in the first 10 days of June next year by calculating the running mean for
next year, by adding 0.1C to this years mean, and then determining what
temperature next year would give that mean.

Of course why restrict it to only 10 days in June? Next June's average
temperture could be calculated that way, and all other months as well!

Cheers, Alastair.