1800 MetO analysis and forecast thoughts
 

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Looking at the 1800 sea level pressure analysis from the MetO at wetterzentrale
it shows a frontal system with triple point over SW England but with hardly any
pressure gradient round it as the parent low is now well out to the west.
Rainfall radar at 2100 shows narrow bands of rain in the south which
surprisingly are not moving very far.

I'm beginning to wonder whether eastern England including the SE will see any
frontal rain at all ? It's also possible that there won't be much to kick off
showers either until Wednesday. In the SW nearer the parent low, troughs
swinging round could trigger heavy showers earlier. I think what I'm trying to
say is that for this severe weather event to come off something rather subtle
and not obvious from the available charts on the net has to happen. The
*potential* is still there of course, very warm and extremely moist air near the
surface just waiting for a trigger. A very tricky situation to forecast.

Personally I had low confidence last thursday and I still have low confidence in
any prediction. Forecasting in summer can be a real swine sometimes.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1800 MetO analysis and forecast thoughts
 

Will,

I was going to say the same thing, but just looking at the BBC Radar. All
the rain seems to be "stopping" halfway across the UK, which is strange
given the forecasts.

Is this due to the High not budging as easily as first thought or some other
reason?

I'm guessing that this throws the forecast for the rest of the week a little
awry.

Wokingham still muggy - 28C indoors, very mild but with a slight breeze
outdoors (no temp reading).

Cheers,

Ian
"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Looking at the 1800 sea level pressure analysis from the MetO at
wetterzentrale
it shows a frontal system with triple point over SW England but with
hardly any
pressure gradient round it as the parent low is now well out to the west.
Rainfall radar at 2100 shows narrow bands of rain in the south which
surprisingly are not moving very far.

I'm beginning to wonder whether eastern England including the SE will see
any
frontal rain at all ? It's also possible that there won't be much to kick
off
showers either until Wednesday. In the SW nearer the parent low, troughs
swinging round could trigger heavy showers earlier. I think what I'm
trying to
say is that for this severe weather event to come off something rather
subtle
and not obvious from the available charts on the net has to happen. The
*potential* is still there of course, very warm and extremely moist air
near the
surface just waiting for a trigger. A very tricky situation to forecast.

Personally I had low confidence last thursday and I still have low
confidence in
any prediction. Forecasting in summer can be a real swine sometimes.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

1800 MetO analysis and forecast thoughts
 

Ian, Wokingham temps currently (2128Z), Dry 24.6, DP 17.6, RH 65 %.
There is an interesting looking thunderstorm working its way across the
Channel from Cherbourg at the moment.


--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html







"Ian Waddell" wrote in message
...
Will,

I was going to say the same thing, but just looking at the BBC Radar. All
the rain seems to be "stopping" halfway across the UK, which is strange
given the forecasts.

Is this due to the High not budging as easily as first thought or some
other
reason?

I'm guessing that this throws the forecast for the rest of the week a
little
awry.

Wokingham still muggy - 28C indoors, very mild but with a slight breeze
outdoors (no temp reading).

Cheers,

Ian
"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Looking at the 1800 sea level pressure analysis from the MetO at
wetterzentrale
it shows a frontal system with triple point over SW England but with
hardly any
pressure gradient round it as the parent low is now well out to the
west.
Rainfall radar at 2100 shows narrow bands of rain in the south which
surprisingly are not moving very far.

I'm beginning to wonder whether eastern England including the SE will
see
any
frontal rain at all ? It's also possible that there won't be much to
kick
off
showers either until Wednesday. In the SW nearer the parent low, troughs
swinging round could trigger heavy showers earlier. I think what I'm
trying to
say is that for this severe weather event to come off something rather
subtle
and not obvious from the available charts on the net has to happen. The
*potential* is still there of course, very warm and extremely moist air
near the
surface just waiting for a trigger. A very tricky situation to forecast.

Personally I had low confidence last thursday and I still have low
confidence in
any prediction. Forecasting in summer can be a real swine sometimes.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

1800 MetO analysis and forecast thoughts
 

South East - Sandy soils. Seen it all before.
Like a desert here these days :( .. until the wet season.
Seriously, usually takes 2 or 3 'goes' after a dry spell before we see any
rain here.
----------------------------------------------------------
"Bernard Burton" wrote in message
...
Ian, Wokingham temps currently (2128Z), Dry 24.6, DP 17.6, RH 65 %.
There is an interesting looking thunderstorm working its way across the
Channel from Cherbourg at the moment.


--
Bernard Burton
Wokingham, Berkshire, UK.

Satellite images at:
www.btinternet.com/~wokingham.weather/wwp.html







"Ian Waddell" wrote in message
...
Will,

I was going to say the same thing, but just looking at the BBC Radar.
All
the rain seems to be "stopping" halfway across the UK, which is strange
given the forecasts.

Is this due to the High not budging as easily as first thought or some
other
reason?

I'm guessing that this throws the forecast for the rest of the week a
little
awry.

Wokingham still muggy - 28C indoors, very mild but with a slight breeze
outdoors (no temp reading).

Cheers,

Ian
"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Looking at the 1800 sea level pressure analysis from the MetO at
wetterzentrale
it shows a frontal system with triple point over SW England but with
hardly any
pressure gradient round it as the parent low is now well out to the
west.
Rainfall radar at 2100 shows narrow bands of rain in the south which
surprisingly are not moving very far.

I'm beginning to wonder whether eastern England including the SE will
see
any
frontal rain at all ? It's also possible that there won't be much to
kick
off
showers either until Wednesday. In the SW nearer the parent low,
troughs
swinging round could trigger heavy showers earlier. I think what I'm
trying to
say is that for this severe weather event to come off something rather
subtle
and not obvious from the available charts on the net has to happen.
The
*potential* is still there of course, very warm and extremely moist
air
near the
surface just waiting for a trigger. A very tricky situation to
forecast.

Personally I had low confidence last thursday and I still have low
confidence in
any prediction. Forecasting in summer can be a real swine sometimes.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----

1800 MetO analysis and forecast thoughts
 

As ever, thoughtful thoughts Will.

What has gone wrong? What factors hasn't materialised, what slight change
happened, what was missed, what trigger was thought to be there but wasn't,
why wern't these things added to the mix? I suppose if we know that it
wouldn't have gone wrong?!

"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

Looking at the 1800 sea level pressure analysis from the MetO at
wetterzentrale
it shows a frontal system with triple point over SW England but with
hardly any
pressure gradient round it as the parent low is now well out to the west.
Rainfall radar at 2100 shows narrow bands of rain in the south which
surprisingly are not moving very far.

I'm beginning to wonder whether eastern England including the SE will see
any
frontal rain at all ? It's also possible that there won't be much to kick
off
showers either until Wednesday. In the SW nearer the parent low, troughs
swinging round could trigger heavy showers earlier. I think what I'm
trying to
say is that for this severe weather event to come off something rather
subtle
and not obvious from the available charts on the net has to happen. The
*potential* is still there of course, very warm and extremely moist air
near the
surface just waiting for a trigger. A very tricky situation to forecast.

Personally I had low confidence last thursday and I still have low
confidence in
any prediction. Forecasting in summer can be a real swine sometimes.

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
-----