"Tom Allen" wrote in message
...
MichaelJP wrote:

snippit
For example, they often show the animation of the rainfall radar as an
"aftercast", but I'd like to see a simulated rainfall radar animation
for the day ahead. This shouldn't be beyond the abilities of the
technical team and would give a good indication of how broken up or
solid the rainfall coverage is going to be.

Michael,
It's just a animated record, there is no element of forecasting. An
'aftercast' is something quite different.
I'd quite like to see such a simulation, however although it might not
be beyond the abilities of the technical team I'd say it is beyond the
abilities of the forecasters. Any forecast of rain presented
graphically is necessarily a pretty smudgy affair. Just look at the ever
changing detail in the radar images (assuming that it's the truth), that
detail or anything near it can never be forecast for a day ahead, I
think even just 'broken up or solid' is pushing it. The current
broad-brush attempts could be made a lot clearer, and maybe will.
Perhaps that's all you are asking.

Regards
Tom

The problem with the current rainfall forecast is it is just a map of
probabilities so if like today we have frontal rain followed by showers, the
shower area would just show as a dark shaded area.

Maybe it's just me, but I'd rather see those showers presented as discrete
blobs as per the actual rainfall radar images, even if obviously the number,
position and size of the shower "blobs" would be just intelligent simulation
taking into account terrain, convergence, etc.

- Michael