long term weather forcasting
 

The very old Jewish gentelman at the local shoe repair shop has said the
this winter will be a very bad one for England with much snow and sub zero
temperatures for long periods. How do you know I asked and he replied that
as he has been making / repairing shoes for 66 years he can tell by the
changes in the leather that he works with.
As this Gentelman is very trustworthy and makes the best quality shoesI have
no reason to not believe him.

My question that as far as long term forcasting is concerned, is his system
or any other none scientific one more reliable than a modern weather station
forcast.

Abraham

long term weather forcasting
 

"abraham" wrote in message
. uk...
The very old Jewish gentelman at the local shoe repair shop has said the
this winter will be a very bad one for England with much snow and sub zero
temperatures for long periods. How do you know I asked and he replied that
as he has been making / repairing shoes for 66 years he can tell by the
changes in the leather that he works with.
As this Gentelman is very trustworthy and makes the best quality shoesI have
no reason to not believe him.

I'm sure he does make high quality shoes but what on earth does that
have to do with his ability to forecast the weather?
What is it the leather *now* that can apparently predict the
weather some months ahead?
What evidence do you have from past winters that his forecasts are correct?
And if he has had sucesses, how do these measure up against the
failures, in order to determine whether these predictions are merely random?

I'm not meaning to be picky here, but this is a scientific newsgroup and
such questions will be asked in order to ascertain the validity of any
such claim.

My question that as far as long term forcasting is concerned, is his system
or any other none scientific one more reliable than a modern weather station
forcast.

At this range the shoe leather method may be just as good as anybody elses :)
The winter is still 4 months off and very broad forecasts continue to be
made that far out, regarding pattern matching of this year's weather
against past years and also looking at the North Atlantic Oscillation.
As to whether these methods works then unless one of the experts
here wishes to disagree then I would say that *sometimes* they seem to.......

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

long term weather forcasting
 

Well, Col, judging by the recent 4 day forecasts, my money's on the leather!
;-)

Dave

"Col" wrote in message
...

"abraham" wrote in message
. uk...
The very old Jewish gentelman at the local shoe repair shop has said the
this winter will be a very bad one for England with much snow and sub
zero
temperatures for long periods. How do you know I asked and he replied
that
as he has been making / repairing shoes for 66 years he can tell by the
changes in the leather that he works with.
As this Gentelman is very trustworthy and makes the best quality shoesI
have
no reason to not believe him.

I'm sure he does make high quality shoes but what on earth does that
have to do with his ability to forecast the weather?
What is it the leather *now* that can apparently predict the
weather some months ahead?
What evidence do you have from past winters that his forecasts are
correct?
And if he has had sucesses, how do these measure up against the
failures, in order to determine whether these predictions are merely
random?

I'm not meaning to be picky here, but this is a scientific newsgroup and
such questions will be asked in order to ascertain the validity of any
such claim.

My question that as far as long term forcasting is concerned, is his
system
or any other none scientific one more reliable than a modern weather
station
forcast.

At this range the shoe leather method may be just as good as anybody elses
:)
The winter is still 4 months off and very broad forecasts continue to be
made that far out, regarding pattern matching of this year's weather
against past years and also looking at the North Atlantic Oscillation.
As to whether these methods works then unless one of the experts
here wishes to disagree then I would say that *sometimes* they seem
to.......

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

long term weather forcasting
 

"Dave.C" wrote in message
. uk...
Well, Col, judging by the recent 4 day forecasts, my money's on the
leather!
;-)

Dave

certainly there is an awful lot of fruit on hedgerow trees etc which the old
timers round here claim means a bad winter.

Just how plants know this in advance I cannot explain and suspect that it is
worth about as much as a met office 4 day forecast :-))

Jim Webster

long term weather forcasting
 

"Jim Webster" wrote in message
...

"Dave.C" wrote in message
. uk...
Well, Col, judging by the recent 4 day forecasts, my money's on the
leather!
;-)

Dave

certainly there is an awful lot of fruit on hedgerow trees etc which the
old
timers round here claim means a bad winter.

Just how plants know this in advance I cannot explain and suspect that it
is
worth about as much as a met office 4 day forecast :-))


The plants in hedgerows are responding to conditions, nothing else. So by
that test, its been an ok summer...!

--
Rob Overfield
Hull; 3m ASL
http://www.astrosport02.karoo.net/YorkshireWeather/

long term weather forcasting
 

I'm going for the seaweed being wet ;-)
Joe

Dave.C wrote:
Well, Col, judging by the recent 4 day forecasts, my money's on the leather!
;-)

Dave

"Col" wrote in message
...

"abraham" wrote in message
o.uk...

The very old Jewish gentelman at the local shoe repair shop has said the
this winter will be a very bad one for England with much snow and sub

zero

temperatures for long periods. How do you know I asked and he replied

that

as he has been making / repairing shoes for 66 years he can tell by the
changes in the leather that he works with.
As this Gentelman is very trustworthy and makes the best quality shoesI

have

no reason to not believe him.

I'm sure he does make high quality shoes but what on earth does that
have to do with his ability to forecast the weather?
What is it the leather *now* that can apparently predict the
weather some months ahead?
What evidence do you have from past winters that his forecasts are

correct?

And if he has had sucesses, how do these measure up against the
failures, in order to determine whether these predictions are merely

random?

I'm not meaning to be picky here, but this is a scientific newsgroup and
such questions will be asked in order to ascertain the validity of any
such claim.


My question that as far as long term forcasting is concerned, is his

system

or any other none scientific one more reliable than a modern weather

station

forcast.

At this range the shoe leather method may be just as good as anybody elses

:)

The winter is still 4 months off and very broad forecasts continue to be
made that far out, regarding pattern matching of this year's weather
against past years and also looking at the North Atlantic Oscillation.
As to whether these methods works then unless one of the experts
here wishes to disagree then I would say that *sometimes* they seem

to.......

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

long term weather forcasting
 

In message , Rob Overfield
writes
The plants in hedgerows are responding to conditions, nothing else. So by
that test, its been an ok summer...!

Not even that much. Good weather at flowering time, so good pollination,
which for most hedgerow plants means a decent spell in May and no really
late frosts. It can also reflect back on the summer before the flowering
as being good, because the flower potential is already established in
the buds all winter and was initiated by the quality of growth in the
previous summer....so part of what they are telling us is that summer
2003 was good for growth.
--
Murray McGregor

long term weather forcasting
 

In message , abraham
writes
How do you know I asked and he replied that
as he has been making / repairing shoes for 66 years he can tell by the
changes in the leather that he works with.


Interesting. One wonders where the animal that produced the hide that
made the leather was raised.

The trade in leather takes the largest proportion of its hides from
South America, Australia etc, to places such as China or the Indian sub
continent for tanning, and then exports them into many places, like the
UK.

Perhaps we are about to see Brazil get a foul winter?

Really though, unless the leather is of local origin it can have no
relation whatsoever to the weather, past, present, or future, in your
area.
--
Murray McGregor

long term weather forcasting
 

"Murray McGregor" wrote in message
...

Really though, unless the leather is of local origin it can have no
relation whatsoever to the weather, past, present, or future, in your
area.

I am not sure that makes any difference - I do not think that the chemically
treated hide of a dead animal retains any links with the habitat of the
living animal.
What leather may do, regardless of its country of origin, is respond to the
local humidity - much like Joe's seaweed (brings back some childhood
memories of seaweed hanging by the back door).

Has anyone ever done any studies btw ..... seaweed near to a weather station
? Just a thought (:

Gianna

long term weather forcasting
 

There have been some excellent answers as usual from this group,

It seems like the old cobbler isnt talking cobblers afterall. Mr
Stratheren's leather forcasting is as good as your weather forcasting.

thanks for your assistance.

Abraham


"Gianna Stefani" wrote in message
...
"Murray McGregor" wrote in message
...

Really though, unless the leather is of local origin it can have no
relation whatsoever to the weather, past, present, or future, in your
area.

I am not sure that makes any difference - I do not think that the
chemically
treated hide of a dead animal retains any links with the habitat of the
living animal.
What leather may do, regardless of its country of origin, is respond to
the
local humidity - much like Joe's seaweed (brings back some childhood
memories of seaweed hanging by the back door).

Has anyone ever done any studies btw ..... seaweed near to a weather
station
? Just a thought (:

Gianna