Another dangerous one...

Quote:
-----
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN SEP 05 2004

....DANGEROUS IVAN MOVING TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BARBADOS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER
ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVAN.

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IVAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.7 WEST OR ABOUT 820
MILES...1320 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH ...33
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 125 MILES...205 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...10.4 N... 47.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
-----

I think this one could hit Florida aagain. What does everyone think?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

--
Rob Overfield
Hull; 3m ASL
http://www.astrosport02.karoo.net/YorkshireWeather/

At the moment I'd have thought Barbadians and others would have a greater
interest in this storm than the inhabitants of Florida, about whom we hear so
much.
Of course any storm called Ivan is liable to be Terrible, though probably
not this one, due to un unfavourable upper wind pattern.

Tudor Hughes.

"TudorHgh" wrote At the moment I'd have thought Barbadians and others
would have a greater
interest in this storm than the inhabitants of Florida, about whom we
hear so
much.
Of course any storm called Ivan is liable to be Terrible, though
probably
not this one, due to un unfavourable upper wind pattern.

I see Noaa are now talking about it strengthening to a Category 5 within
the next 24 hours.

- Tom.

I see Noaa are now talking about it strengthening to a Category 5 within
the next 24 hours.

- Tom.
Wheres it say that ?

snipp
HURRICANE IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 AT
5 AM AST MON SEP 06 2004

....IVAN WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES QUICKLY TOWARD THE LESSER
ANTILLES...

Dosnt look like upward cat5 to me?

"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...
At the moment I'd have thought Barbadians and others would have a
greater
interest in this storm than the inhabitants of Florida, about whom we hear
so
much.
Of course any storm called Ivan is liable to be Terrible, though
probably
not this one, due to un unfavourable upper wind pattern.

Tudor Hughes.

Tudor, I agree with you, but the unfortnately real possibility of getting a
second damaging storm across an area already blown about, make it one to
watch for the Bahamas and Florida. The forecast track suggests it could
come extremely close to the eastern coast of Florida next Sunday.

--
Rob Overfield
Hull; 3m ASL
http://www.astrosport02.karoo.net/YorkshireWeather/

On 06 Sep 2004 00:25:53 GMT, (TudorHgh) wrote:

At the moment I'd have thought Barbadians and others would have a greater
interest in this storm than the inhabitants of Florida, about whom we hear so
much.

Absolutely.

Of course any storm called Ivan is liable to be Terrible, though probably
not this one, due to un unfavourable upper wind pattern.

The Barbadians (forecast Cat 4, in less than 2 days time), Haitians
(landfall as a Cat 4, exiting as Cat 1) and probably the Dominicans,
might not agree!

Ivan has the potential to cause a humanitarian disaster on Hispaniola,
especially due to intense rainfall in the mountains. What happened in
Florida could look like a pinprick after this one - if current track
and intensity forecasts are correct. Fortunately, it looks like it
will move much faster than Frances and obviously this would tend to
lessen the rainfall totals.

--
Dave

I don't know whether its just me, but does this seem to be a more active
hurricane season than the previuos years. If so, is it probably due to the
"Greenhouse Effect" and warmer oceans.

Mike

www.dudleyweather.angelcities.com

"Dave Ludlow" wrote in message
...
On 06 Sep 2004 00:25:53 GMT, (TudorHgh) wrote:

At the moment I'd have thought Barbadians and others would have a
greater
interest in this storm than the inhabitants of Florida, about whom we
hear so
much.

Absolutely.

Of course any storm called Ivan is liable to be Terrible, though
probably
not this one, due to un unfavourable upper wind pattern.

The Barbadians (forecast Cat 4, in less than 2 days time), Haitians
(landfall as a Cat 4, exiting as Cat 1) and probably the Dominicans,
might not agree!

Ivan has the potential to cause a humanitarian disaster on Hispaniola,
especially due to intense rainfall in the mountains. What happened in
Florida could look like a pinprick after this one - if current track
and intensity forecasts are correct. Fortunately, it looks like it
will move much faster than Frances and obviously this would tend to
lessen the rainfall totals.

--
Dave

"redtube" wrote
I see Noaa are now talking about it strengthening to a Category 5
within
the next 24 hours.

- Tom.
Wheres it say that ?

I looked at
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../022031.shtml? just
before I posted.

I now notice that there's no mention there of any Category for Ivan at
all.

- Tom.

"Michael Di Bernardo" wrote in message
.uk...
I don't know whether its just me, but does this seem to be a more active
hurricane season than the previuos years. If so, is it probably due to
the
"Greenhouse Effect" and warmer oceans.

Mike

www.dudleyweather.angelcities.com


Yes it has been much more active than normal. The August total of eight
tropical storms is the highest ever. Having saif that it is nothing to do
with global warming, it is to do with a multi-decadal cycle in the Atlantic
which results in 20-30 years of active seasons and then 20-30 years of
inactive seasons. 1995 was the start of the next active cycle, so enhanced
hurricane activity can be expected for approx the next 20 years.

Adam

In article ,
says...
Yes it has been much more active than normal. The August total of eight
tropical storms is the highest ever.

Having saif that it is nothing to do
with global warming, it is to do with a multi-decadal cycle in the Atlantic
which results in 20-30 years of active seasons and then 20-30 years of
inactive seasons. 1995 was the start of the next active cycle, so enhanced
hurricane activity can be expected for approx the next 20 years.

I seem to recall someone explaining to me how GW would limit Atlantic
hurricane activity. Something to do with a shallower
(temperature/pressure?) gradient between the equator and the pole.

--
Alan LeHun