================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

OK now that all the hype has died down a bit thought I'd present a few facts as
I see them.

Firstly any credit or discredit should go to the organization that actually
provided the model runs that gave the meteorology on which Andrew Bond produced
his winter forecast. NOAA from the USA.

NOAA provide the 100 day (just over 3 months forecast) on which that winter
forecast was based. It is NOAA who are providing the runs that are "diverging"
in January as Andrew Bond mentioned in his January section. Note that the
forecast does not extend into February as it is out of the 100 day range of the
NOAA 100 day GFS product.

Also other outputs from Andrew Bond's site are based on GFS from NOAA so NOAA
should take any credit for the meteorology.

All and full credit to Andrew for the presentation but I would like to see
acknowledgement of sources. I will be pursuing this issue further *personally*
and "offline".

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I know when Metcheck first burst onto the vista they made the same sort of
headlining "coldest winter ever" statement. Weather Action did the same
thing in Autumn 1980 I still have the article from the Daily Telegraph. The
truth is it's all nonsense really isn't it.

I will give credit though to Metcheck and The Weather Outlook for
stimulating interest n the weather. They both run very nice informative
sites. I'm just a little disappointed in the fact that this totally
unverifiable prediction has gone like wildfire around what should more
critical news sources.
Why only yesterday in the wake of this ridiculous forecast the Daily Mirror
ran a motoring article titled
"Don't be caught out as the big freeze heads our way"

The article opens by saying
"The big freeze is coming.Forecasters warned this week we face one of the
bitterest winters in years"
It then proceeds to advise the standard winter car check ups and finishes
up imploring that we fill our cars with mars bars!

All of this based on Andrew's outrageous claims (there's been many) which
have never yet come to fruition.

Sorry Andrew. Good luck to you though.






"Will" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
================================================== ==================

OK now that all the hype has died down a bit thought I'd present a few
facts as
I see them.

Firstly any credit or discredit should go to the organization that
actually
provided the model runs that gave the meteorology on which Andrew Bond
produced
his winter forecast. NOAA from the USA.

NOAA provide the 100 day (just over 3 months forecast) on which that
winter
forecast was based. It is NOAA who are providing the runs that are
"diverging"
in January as Andrew Bond mentioned in his January section. Note that the
forecast does not extend into February as it is out of the 100 day range
of the
NOAA 100 day GFS product.

Also other outputs from Andrew Bond's site are based on GFS from NOAA so
NOAA
should take any credit for the meteorology.

All and full credit to Andrew for the presentation but I would like to see
acknowledgement of sources. I will be pursuing this issue further
*personally*
and "offline".

Will.
--

" A cup is most useful when empty "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).

mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk

DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"Lawrence" wrote in message
...


All of this based on Andrew's outrageous claims (there's been many) which
have never yet come to fruition.


And one day of course, he will be correct.

Just like over the last few years they were predicting that summer
temps would hit 100f and of course last year they were proved correct.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html

"Col" wrote in message
...

"Lawrence" wrote in message
...


All of this based on Andrew's outrageous claims (there's been many)
which
have never yet come to fruition.


And one day of course, he will be correct.

Just like over the last few years they were predicting that summer
temps would hit 100f and of course last year they were proved correct.

Col
--
Bolton, Lancashire.
160m asl.
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co.uk
http://www.reddwarfer.btinternet.co....rPictures.html



What makes me laugh is theweatheroutlook
have said " we have only ever made two cold winter forecasts ".

So why in gods name do they keep posting
pictures of 1979 and 1953 every and i mean EVERY
year before winter has even started.

Why do metcheck and two constantly
lie and cover there arses!

Sorry Andrew. Good luck to you though.


Make your mind up, Lawrence.

Tudor Hughes.

I suppose what I meant was more fool these organisations for being so lax
with verification and printing this stuff. Trouble is it all gets a tad
nasty just having goes at Brian and Andrew.
However I do like the sound of

Gaze & Bond
International Weather Psychics & their Guest The Great Pressuti.
Producing Medium Range Forecast
Specialising in Table Tipping, Barometer Bobbling and Very Cold Readings.

See and hear Doris Gaze contact the "other side" via her Guernsey Indian
Spirit Guide Snow Goose Gary Sarre.

See what Barometer Bond can do with his famous Crystal Balls

"oh there's someone trying to break through do the letters B G mean
anything?"

And now for the Apparition Chill Factor.

Thats enough of your time and enough of my time being wasted on such
nonsense.







"TudorHgh" wrote in message
...

Sorry Andrew. Good luck to you though.


Make your mind up, Lawrence.

Tudor Hughes.


---
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Checked by AVG anti-virus system (http://www.grisoft.com).
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"Will" wrote in message ...
NOAA provide the 100 day (just over 3 months forecast) on which that
winter
forecast was based. It is NOAA who are providing the runs that are
"diverging"
in January as Andrew Bond mentioned in his January section. Note that the
forecast does not extend into February as it is out of the 100 day range
of the
NOAA 100 day GFS product.
I'm not sure whether these 100-day forecasts are connected with NOAA:

http://ecpc.ucsd.edu/m2s/T2M/eur_t2m_wk.html

There are links to the NCEP and NOAA if you dig around on there, but
regardless of that I've been tracking the forecasts since July.

I've plotted the mean temperature forecasts for London on a graph:

http://www.medvale.fsnet.co.uk/chart2.gif

As you can see, that 100-day run is all over the place, no surprise as it's
a long way off and still an experimental product.

"Lawrence" wrote in message
...
I know when Metcheck first burst onto the vista they made the same sort of
headlining "coldest winter ever" statement. Weather Action did the same
thing in Autumn 1980 I still have the article from the Daily Telegraph. The
truth is it's all nonsense really isn't it. I will give credit though to
Metcheck and The Weather Outlook for stimulating interest n the weather.
They both run very nice informative sites. I'm just a little disappointed
in the fact that this totally unverifiable prediction has gone like
wildfire around what should more critical news sources.

You may be disappointed but surely not surprised ! Give them the hint of a
story and the 'media' will always sensationalize it. The thought that they
should apply some 'critical' thinking would never enter their heads. 'Never
let the truth stand in the way of a good story' is there axiom. Yes - I'm
afraid I am a cynic.
Cheers
John
--
York,
North Yorkshire.
(Norman Virus Protected)

On Sat, 16 Oct 2004 15:32:07 GMT, "John Whitby"
wrote:


You may be disappointed but surely not surprised ! Give them the hint of a
story and the 'media' will always sensationalize it.

Or simply make it up.

The thought that they
should apply some 'critical' thinking would never enter their heads. 'Never
let the truth stand in the way of a good story' is there axiom. Yes - I'm
afraid I am a cynic.

You and me both. Depressing isn't it?

Yn erthygl , sgrifennodd
Will :
NOAA provide the 100 day (just over 3 months forecast) on which that winter
forecast was based.

Given what's widely accepted to be true here, i.e. that no forecast beyond
around a fortnight is worth anything (due to chaos), why does a reputable
organisation bother to produce these?

It's all very well calling them "experimental" but if we have a theory
which says they can't have any worth - which we do - surely they are
wasting their time.

Or do they make money from these too?

Adrian
--
Adrian Shaw ais@
Adran Cyfrifiadureg, Prifysgol Cymru, aber.
Aberystwyth, Ceredigion, Cymru ac.
http://users.aber.ac.uk/ais uk